Roster Moves: The Indians have made things official as Scott Kazmir was placed on the 15 day DL today with a right ribcage sprain. In his place, Trevor Bauer will make the Indians fifth start, but will probably not stay on the team as Carlos Carrasco will end his suspension Sunday.

Player of the Game

Carlos Santana took the Indians first Player of the Game for a position player in 2013 as he did all he could to win the game.  He did it with power, hitting his second double and first home run of the season today. He also knocked in and scored two runs each for a final POG score of 5.95. On the other end of the spectrum, Brett Myers had the lowest score of the year with a total of -9.25.

Feathers Up

The Indians accomplished something tonight that rarely occured under Manny Acta and almost never under Eric Wedge. They have used the same lineup in each of the first three games. While players will eventually need time off, they don't need it the first week of the season, so Terry Francona has put out his best possible offense every day.

After years of a veritable 'power outage', the Indians finally have some pop from the right side of the plate. Mark Reynolds hit his second home run of the year tonight (his first was the game winner last night) following Carlos Santana who had one of his own. The Indians have home runs in each game so far this season.

After two low scoring games, the Indians proved they can mash when they need to, coming from behind multiple times tonight to tie the game at three, then later at six. Santana was a big part of both comebacks, knocking in runs in both the fourth and sixth innings.

Feathers Down

Brett Myers looked terrible today, especially after the two quality starts by the Indians to start the season. Three batters into the game, Myers gave up a two run home run to Jose Bautista, giving him more runs allowed than any other pitcher to this point. He later gave up another two home runs, allowing a total of six runs in just five innings. The Indians knew his velocity would be down coming into the season, but without a solid fastball, there is nothing to keep opposing batters from feasting on his breaking stuff. It is only one start, but unless he can make some changes, Bauer may find a more permanent spot in the Indians rotation soon.

Going right along with the Indians ability to come back, they had to give up runs in the first place to make it all possible. The Blue Jays were slamming the ball all over the second deck past the outfield wall, ending with five home runs, two hit by J.P. Arencibia alone. His second home run came off Myers in the sixth inning, who was left in despite giving up three runs the prior inning and six runs total.

The Indians lost their first game of the season and despite giving up five home runs, lost the game because of a few poor plays on defense. Poor relief pitching also came into play, as both Cody Allen and Matt Albers had issues with command.

Play of the Game

With two outs in the bottom of the sixth, Mark Reynolds fielded a ball that should have ended the inning. Instead, he threw wide of Cody Allen, who was covering, and the ball got away, allowing the runner to score from third. The unearned run was the final scored that inning, pushing the Toronto lead to three. The error was given to Reynolds, but Allen should have at least caught it as it glanced off his glove.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 8 - Toronto Blue Jays 10

Injury News: The Indians have not stated who will be the number five starter the first time through the rotation yet, but they have said that it won't be Scott Kazmir. He is too injured to pitch Saturday, but not badly enough to be placed on the DL as of yet. Travis Bauer is a prime candidate as Carlos Carrasco is unavailable until Monday.

Bored? Ears feeling empty? Check out the latest episode of Burning River Radio right here:

Or as always on the right side bar of BurningRiverBaseball.com. Now onto the game.

Player of the Game

Ubaldo Jimenez nets the Player of the Game with a final POG score of 5.00 despite not recording the win. He pitched 6 solid innings, allowing just a single run on a solo home run while striking out six. Michael Brantley also had a great game with four hits, racking up a POG score of 3.55.

Feathers Up

Both starters had their "good stuff" at the start of this game. The Indians first four hits off Brandon Morrow were all of the seeing eye variety and Ubaldo Jimenez was very proficient at keeping the ball on the ground. Morrow was especially good at striking out batters, ending the game with 8 while Jimenez's only mistake came against light hitting Maicer Izturis who hit a solo home run to left in the third inning. Despite just allowing a single run each, neither pitcher was eligible to win the game as they each left early while the game was tied.

Michael Brantley has been hot through the first two games as he knocked in his first run of the year today on his third single. He had a great Spring, especially early on and will benefit playing in the middle of a much improved lineup. He later added two more singles and was the only batter to hit the ball hard safely in the first five innings against Morrow. He is now 5-6 on the season with two walks.

Michael Bourne showed his speed for the first time, legging out a double on a bloop hit to left before taking third on a line drive out to shallow right. He later scored on the Brantley single. Drew Stubbs also turned it on for the first time, stealing the first base (of many to come) by an Indian this year.

Mark Reynolds first hit as an Indian was an upper deck shot to give the Indians the lead in the 11th inning. The pitch was high and he let it fly to straightaway centerfield.

Feathers Down

Jason Kipnis has been kept off base each of the first two games, but he has hit the ball hard. Today he hit a long fly to the opposite field, but was retired at the wall by Melky Cabrera.

Much like Masterson yesterday, Ubaldo Jimenez seemed to struggle at times throwing strikes. He was able to refrain from walking to many batters and it actually helped him set-up a few of his six strike outs. Pitching like this places Jimenez on an edge, just like last year, where he is dangerously close to walking 5 batters a game. Another aspect of this wildness, the increase in pitch count, is made unimportant by the strength of the Indians bullpen.

Chris Perez didn't wait long to blow his first save of the season as he came out of the pen hot and completely out of control. He struck out the first batter, but threw a terrible fast ball to Jose Bautista which was deposited in the bullpen past the left field wall. In a one run game, that was all that was needed to force extra innings.

Play of the Game

Jimenez induced a double play to end his sixth and final inning of the game. After Melky Cabrera had reached via single, Jose Batista hit a ground ball to Jason Kipnis who tossed the ball to Asdrubal Cabrera. It was the second double play forced against Batista by Jimenez.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 3 - Toronto Blue Jays 2

Roster Moves: Scott Kazmir was added to the Indians roster today with the anticipation that he will be placed on the 15 Day DL, retroactive to his last start in Spring Training. To make room, Nick Hagadone has been sent back to AAA Columbus, but he will be able to be brought back as soon as Kazmir is placed on the DL. Carlos Carrasco could be the fifth starter and is already on the roster if necessary.

Player of the Game

The Indians ace earned his title on Opening Day by winning the first Player of the Game of 2013 with a stellar performance. He struggled early, but was dominant late, allowing just a single run over his six innings pitched. Although it took some time, he also was able to strike out more batters than he walked with 5 strike outs to four walks. Asdrubal Cabrera came in a close second with his first home run of the season, knocking in two while making a couple nice plays on defense.

Feathers Up

The Indians scored first on Opening Day when the Tribe took advantage of two wild pitches. Lonnie Chisenhall knocked in the first run of the year and Drew Stubbs followed in kind with a single to knock in the second.

Michael Bourne didn't get a chance to show off his speed after his first hit as an Indian in the fifth inning. Asdrubal Cabrera immediately followed with the Indians first home run of the season high over the right field wall.

Justin Masterson took awhile to settle down, but when he did, he was great. He didn't allow a single baserunner over his last three innings (4-6) and struck out two. Prior to the fourth, he allowed eight baserunners in three innings, although he gave up only a single run during his outing.

The overall defense in this game was astounding, although Drew Stubbs did commit an error early on. Stubbs, Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Nick Swisher each made impressive plays and there were no other misplays to mention.

Two Indians hit minor milestones tonight with Vinnie Pestano getting his 60th save, tying him for 5th all-time as a Cleveland Indian. Chris Perez also earned a milestone with his 100th save as an Indian. As a whole, the bullpen was dominant as Joe Smith earned a hold as well. As a unit, the Bullpen Mafia pitched three innings allowing just a single hit and no walks or runs.

Feathers Down

The Indians had to face a different kind of pitcher than they hit against all Spring as R.A. Dickey threw a vast majority of his piches as knucle balls. For those who place an unreasonable amount of importance on the first at bat of the season, Michael Bourne grounded out to Blue Jays second baseman Emilio Bonifacio.

In addition to the knuckle ball flying all around the strike zone, Justin Masterson had some problems of his own. By the fourth inning he had already thrown more than 80 pitches, almost half of them balls. In total he walked four batters and hit another, just a great play by Asdrubal Cabrera away from having his runs allowed match-up more accurately with his baserunners.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 4 - Toronto Blue Jays 1

The Indians open up the 2013 season in a dome in chilly Toronto as a high of 35º and a possibility of snow is expected. The Tribe will be throwing out a brand new lineup, featuring at least four players who have never taken an official at bat as a member of the Cleveland Indians. As a whole, it is the strongest lineup on paper that the Indians have fielded in years and a whole lot would have to go wrong for them to perform worse than last year's unit. The line-up is as follows:

CF: Michael Bourne
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera
2B: Jason Kipnis
1B: Nick Swisher
LF: Michael Brantley
C: Carlos Santana
DH: Mark Reynolds
3B: Lonnie Chisenhall
RF: Drew Stubbs

Justin Masterson will be starting for the Tribe with an eight man bull-pen ready to go behind him if he falters. Facing Masterson will be a Blue Jays lineup that was even more revamped than the Indians.

SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Melky Cabrera
RF: Jose Bautista
1B: Edwin Encarnacion
DH: Adam Lind
C: J.P. Arencibia
CF: Colby Rasmus
2B: Emilio Bonifacio
3B: Maicer Izturis

With their increased power along with the retention of perennial MVP candidate Jose Bautista the Blue Jays look to compete in the AL East for the first time since they won two World Series in the early 1990's. Knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey will be starting for Toronto, another offseason pick-up after he won the NL Cy Young last season with the Mets.

While opening day is not technically more important than any other game of the year, it is emotionally more important and this one will feature two of the teams expected to increase their win totals the most from last year. Opening day should be a very interesting match-up as both teams try to learn how to mesh with their new teammates.

Pure Rage will lead the Bullpen Mafia into Toronto.

Cleveland Indians (69-94) at Toronto Blue Jays (73-89) *Records are 2012.

Since we now have the technology, I've put together a short suplemental episode of Burning River Baseball to help people understand the Player of the Game statistic that is used to decide the Player of the Game for every game as well as to evaluate players for things like our Player Power Rankings. To listen, click the play button below:

This audio player will also be available on the Player of the Game tab at the top of the page for future reference. That page also contains the all time standings for the award.

Understanding the “Player of the Game” Award

Calculation:

In 2007 I created an equation to evaluate players against each other in order to determine who was the best player in each game, season and more. This equation includes box score statistics, but is also based around other aspects such as defense, baserunning and situational hitting, which I keep stats for on my own. More stats go into the equation than those I’ve mentioned, but that’s my little secret. The scoring is done by multiplying the stat earned with the value I have given to it. For example, a wild pitch is worth -.15 points. This means for each wild pitch thrown .15 points are subtracted from the pitchers total score. After that I add up all the scores to see who was the best for the game. I will post the player of the game and their score after every game.

Ranges:

The highest single player score in one game in the 2010 season was 9/17 against the Royals, when Shin-Soo Choo scored a 14.93 by hitting 3 homeruns and knocking in 7. The lowest score in 2010 was a -10.86 by Fausto Carmona 7/28 against the Yankees. He earned that by pitching in 2.2 innings and allowing 7 earned runs on 10 hits.

The best average score per game for a position player was also held by Choo in 2010, with 1.65 points earned per game. The lowest, Anderson Hernandez with .32 points per game in 22 games. Of the players with more than 81 games played, Luis Valbuena was the worst, with .33 points per game. In 2010, 14 Indians hitters averaged less than 1 point per game while 10 averaged more than 1.

Pitching scores tend to be more widely variable as hitters almost never see a score below -1.00, while pitchers can easily get below -5.00 (As Carmona showed in his start against New York). The top season average for a pitcher was Carmona, averaging 1.83 points per game. The worst average score by a pitcher was David Huff, with a -1.82. Relief pitchers tend to be more stable in their scores, because they only pitch an inning or two at a time. The top reliever average in 2010 was Chris Perez with 0.96 points per game. The worst was Hector Ambriz with a -0.40 per game.

Since I started keeping track in 2007 through the 2012 season, Shin-Soo Choo has won the most Player of the Game awards with 58, followed closely by Grady Sizemore with 57. Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera and Roberto Hernandez all have more than 40. This chart covers the entire Indians career of all current players except Sizemore, Hafner, Choo, Hernandez and Rafael Perez. Relief pitchers tend to get the low end of this as the only time they win the Player of the Game is when the Indians lose and don't score much. Because of this, closers and set-up men are almost forgotten. The do get credit for what they pitch however, and it is recorded in the year end Player of the Game Rankings.

The chart below is a record of the current roster’s ‘Player of the Game’ awards going back to 2007. A zero means the player was on the team, but didn’t win during that season. A hyphen means the player was not on the team that season. PS stands for Post Season. Chart accurate up to 2012. Now with easier to read colors!

Joe's Expectations

There has been no season in recent history where the Indians have entered the season feeling so positive. Everything started with the signing of Terry Francona which completely changed the perspective of everyone in Cleveland. A slew of big free agent signing filled all the holes in the roster when it had looked prior to the end of the season that they would be filled internally or with AAAA Spring Training invitees (like Mike McDade).

This has changed the expectations from being picked to finish in fourth, competing with the Minnesota Twins for last place to being contenders for the division title along with the Tigers and White Sox. All this may be a little overblown as the Indians still have a very problematic starting rotation and an offense that is still not on the level of the Tigers or either of the big AL West teams (the Rangers and Angels). 

The good news for the Indians is two-fold. First, every part of the team has been improved from the 2012 season (and they actually played very well for the first half of that season). The defense has been dynamically improved, starting with the removal of the lead weights who stood in left field last year and replacing them with the greatest active defensive outfielder, Michael Bourne. With three career centerfielders starting in the outfield, it truly should be a "death to all flying things" situation. The biggest offensive improvement was switching out Casey Kotchman for Nick Swisher and adding a DH (Mark Reynolds) after playing most of 2012 with Travis Hafner on the DL. Even the pitching has improved with Derek Lowe and Tony Sipp (among others) gone, replaced by Brett Myers and a crew of top end relievers.

The second point of optimism for the Indians is that this team is not built to win in 2013. Swisher and Bourne each signed four year deals while Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera and the other young Indians that were developed in house are under team control for years to come as well. In fact, the only players signed to one year deals are Myers and Reynolds, who each have replacements already with the team (Trevor Bauer and Jesus Aguilar) who should be upgrades for the 2014 season. This long-term establishment allows the Indians a window of contention much longer than just this year. It also leaves them able to compete this season by using the players signed to single year contracts. Remember to keep this in mind if the Indians struggle at all this year, that it isn't time to panic and pull the rip cord, instead, just relax and enjoy the ride.

The second acquisition was much flashier and a great move for the long term, something the Indians should have done more of this offseason. In a three-team swap, the Indians acquired the #3 overall pick in the 2011 draft, Trevor Bauer. Bauer’s stuff includes a mid-90s fastball and very good curveball. He also mixes in a slider, splitter and change-up and both his command and control need to be polished. According to scouts, he is a very raw talent and could take several years to develop. With some polish and maturity, Bauer has the ultimate ceiling of a No. 2 starter. So while Bauer can help over the long-haul, it will be a stretch to say he will have an impact this season in the starting rotation.

The third acquisition, Scott Kazmir, was recently named the fifth starter. He had promising numbers over the winter and had a good spring. The reality of fifth starters is that they’re well below-average, and Kazmir, like in 2009, is a capable fifth starter. If he can get back to that level, he can serve a purpose, even if he isn’t the Kazmir of old, the guy who pitched like a dominant ace early in his career with the Tampa Bay Rays. However, all postseason ready teams have competition for the fifth spot in the rotation and is usually not correlated  

With no impact free agent starting pitchers available this past off-season, the organization decided to bolster the defense, the outfield defense to be exact. As you know, run prevention is a combination of pitching and defense, with the former being highly correlated to the latter. There are concerns about how the Indians’ pitchers will contribute to the run prevention, but the defense should make a stronger contribution, helping the pitchers out. To say that the Indians’ rotation isn’t good enough is to say that the Indians will allow too many runs. The infield is still a defensive mess and with a staff made up primarily of ground-ball pitchers, could turn out to be one of the main culprits. That’s without even considering Santana’s work behind the plate. But the outfield is where the Indians could shine. Let’s group the corner positions together. These should be occupied by Nick Swisher, Drew Stubbs, and Michael Brantley. Swisher is getting older, but his defensive track record in the outfield is pretty good. Stubbs’ numbers with Cincinnati were great, and he played in the middle. Brantley has been a center fielder, but the numbers don’t speak kindly of him. Will it be enough for the poor infield-defensive performance? I am not willing to bet my hedges.

The organization needed to focus it's efforts on acquiring high-ceiling, major-league or near major league talent. Because they did not do that this past offseason, they are only delaying the inevitable. For a low-revenue team, higher-priced free agents should only be pursued when the team is ready to winnow. With 90+ losses three of the last four years, they are obviously more bullish on their 2013 forecasting than I am.

Therefore, I must conclude that the Indians will not make the postseason.

Brett Myers could be the question to everybody's answers in 2013.

The Indians went all out this offseason to pick up some tremendous offensive talent increasing the power (Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds) and speed (Drew Stubbs and Michael Bourne). Along with the attributes that the Indians were trying to improve in, they added another. An incredible ability to swing and miss at a baseball.

Mark Reynolds is the most famous of the group of newcomers for this as he owns the single season major league record for strike outs with 223 in 2009. To keep him from breaking his own record the next year, he was benched at the end of the season by the Arizona Diamondbacks, leading him to the number two mark with 211 (since passed by Adam Dunn in 2012). Of course, the 2009 record beat out his previous MLB record of 204 in 2008. Right now, Reynolds owns four of the top ten worst strike out seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. He will be the starting DH this year and should play in more than 140 games as he attempts to break his own record yet again.

Another newcomer is also in the top ten single season records as Drew Stubbs 2011 season comes in fourth with 205. Stubbs will be in a much better position than ever before as he will not be hitting lead-off for the Indians leading to less at bats and less important at bats. He will be much more likely to see more fast balls by pitchers just looking to get a bottom of the lineup hitter out as quickly as possible.

All-in-all, the Indians look to be adding a wind storm of new strike outs to the 2013 lineup. In order to celebrate what could be a record year, Burning River Baseball will be running a strike out tracker throughout the season, tallying the total times Indians batters k. The current record for a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks (the AL record is held by the 2007 Devil Rays with 1,324).

Using some very simple forcasting of the upcoming season, based solely on past performance and projected games played, the Indians should strike out about 1,210 times. While this isn't that close to the MLB record, it is near the Indians team record of 1,269 from 2011. There is also a good chance of either Reynolds or Stubbs breaking Jim Thome's single season record of 185 strike outs (2001). Thome also ranks second and third with his 1999 and 2000 seasons (as well as coming in 10th, 11th and 12th). In a way, this season will be an interesting experiment of the importance of strike outs. If the Indians can score more than five runs a game, it shouldn't matter that Stubbs and Reynolds each strike out more than once a game or that Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourne and Nick Swisher each strike out at least three times every four games.

Stick with us for the whole season and keep an eye on the side of the site as we track each and every Indians strike out in the 2013 season. As they break each individual record, we will update the goal, starting with the 2011 Indians record of 1,269, followed by the Rays AL record of 1,324, then the Diamondbacks MLB record of 1,529.

Drew Stubbs will be powering the windmill on top of Progressive Field in 2013.