The Tribe recently signed veteran shortstop Cristian Guzman to a one-year deal.

Talk about doubling down: after already getting a four-year, $16.8 million deal from former Nationals GM Jim Bowden before the 2005 season, Guzman managed to have 18 months of relatively useful production into a two-year, $16 million extension signed during the 2008 season. The ink on the contract was hardly dry before he reverted to his  "out-making" ways. His ephemeral offensive value had been constructed on a short-term jump in his line-drive rates and the concurrently higher BABIPs they produced, but walking in fewer than three percent of his plate appearances last year—a rate only surpassed in the NL by the swingin’ comedy team of Miggy and Bengie—guaranteed that he would once again show up on most “OBP sinkhole” lists. The Nationals once considerd a move across the keystone to hide his ever-decreasing range. It’s safe to say 2010 was his true level of production.

According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Guzman will compete for the utility infielder's job. His last year in the big leagues was 2010, when he played for the Nationals and Texas. The switch-hitter batted .266 (97-for-365) with two homers and 26 RBI. He played shortstop, second base and right field. Guzman said he had rotator cuff surgery on his right shoulder three years ago and it prevented him from playing last year. He spent the first six years of his career as the Twins' shortstop where Indians fans hated him for turning hard ground balls in the Baggie-Domes rock hard carpet into "seeing eye" singles.

Cristian Guzman will compete for a spot on the 25 man roster.

Gaylord Perry was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1991 as a member of the San Francisco Giants, but his short time with the Indians was enough to place him among the greatest Tribe pitchers of all time. In 1971 the Indians acquired Perry from the Giants for another all-time Indian, Sam McDowell. Gaylord went on to immediately win the American League Cy Young in his first season as an Indian (1972). He later became the first pitcher to win the Cy Young in both leagues when he won the award again with the San Diego Padres in 1978.

Perry's 1972 season has him ranked among the top five best single season records in both starts and and innings pitched and the top ten in WHIP. The next also ranks among the top five all time in starts and innings. In fact he pitched over 320 innings in each of his first three seasons with the Tribe. In his career, Perry has thrown more innings per game than any Indian pitcher ever and ranks in the top five all-time in WHIP. His career numbers are strangely similar to his brother Jim Perry, who also played for the Indians. Each pitcher had exactly 70 wins, but Gaylord had ten less losses. Gaylord also had exactly 20 less starts, but threw just one less inning. The rate stats are where they really differ with Gaylord's ERA being 1.05 runs per nine innings lower than Jim's. Gaylord's batting average against is also better, in fact his .213 is among the top ten Indians pitchers of all time. His four years of service were enough to get him recognition by the Indians as he was inducted into the Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame in 2012.

Wow, what a winter it has been for ground ball pitchers! You know times are tough when Livan Hernandez and Jon Garland settle for minor-league deals. Aaron Harang got a comfy two-year deal, but that alone can’t fund all the organization getaways and giveaways that come with being a card-carrying innings eater. At least Garland’s minor-league deal is sensible, as it comes on the heels of right shoulder surgery. Some teams seemingly subscribe to the motto that “elbows heal, shoulders kill,” so it isn’t surprising that it took until the final week before camp for Garland to latch on.

When right, Garland is your average pitch-to-contact innings sponge, having tossed fewer than 180 innings in a season in 2011 for just the first time since 2001—and even then, he completed more than 150 innings between the majors and minors. He won’t give a team many strikeouts (he has topped six strikeouts per nine just once in his career), and his strikeout-to-walk rates have sat at below 2.0 in each of the past five seasons, meaning shiny peripherals are unlikely too. What Garland will give you is 30-plus starts and more than 60 percent quality starts by changing speeds and locations and by getting batters to beat the ball into the ground.

The Tribe was primed to trot out a groundball-heavy rotation prior to Roberto Heredia’s arrest. Should Garland return to form, he could add some more ground balls to a staff that already includes Heredia (should he return this season), Justin Masterson, Derek Lowe, and Ubaldo Jimenez. Another storyline to watch for is if Garland can out-pitch Heredia (again, should he be allowed to return to the States). Bill James' and ZIPS projections knows not of Garland’s surgery, but Garland’s projected 4.39 earned run average is close to Carmona’s 4.33 figure. Heck, is it even silly to think Garland may have out-pitched Carmona over the past three seasons?

 * QS- Quality Start

Joe: We have come to the last installment of four in our discussions of the Cleveland Indians roster make-up. All that is left to discuss is the unit known as the Bullpen Mafia. How do you feel about the Mafia?

Mike: Unlike the real mafia, bullpens are extremely hard to predict. There is very little correlation between how a bullpen performs collectively one year and how it does the next. What we saw last year was rare so our expectations should be tempered a little bit.

Joe: Bullpens as a whole may be difficult to predict, but individual pitchers are not. Bob Wickman played for many years for the Tribe and was the same pitcher every year. Mariano Rivera has been throwing the exact same pitch over and over for a decade with the same results. The unpredictability comes from the lower levels of the bullpen and new players.

Mike: You named two pitchers out of how many that make up a bullpen every year? Chris Perez was a lucky guy last year. He earned a .234 BABIP easily the lowest on the team. That will be higher this year so you can expect a higher ERA.

Joe: He may regress a little bit, but the way he pitches will keep him successful. He's a hard thrower who doesn't mess around and throws strikes. He also has a swing and miss ability that has been missing from the closer's role since Jose Mesa. I'm not worried about Perez at all. Here's another player I'm not worried about at all, his set up man, Vinnie Pestano.

Mike: I agree. Perez’s strikeout per nine rate has plummeted while the league average rate has risen, with the same being true for his strikeout-to-walk ratio. This could partially be due to his fastball and slider both losing a mile per hour in velocity. The downward trending peripherals did not destroy Perez’s production last year, but they are a serious cause for concern entering this season. Combine the possibility of Perez’s results imploding and Pestano’s sustaining – his minor league FIP in 2010 was below 2.00 – and you get a player that should at absolute worst should be Pestano's set-up man.

Joe: I actually prefer the better pitcher to be the set-up man. It might not make sense at first, but the closer almost always comes in for a single inning with the bases clean. The set-up man can come in for multiple innings or match up against one hitter. He also needs to be available if there's a bases loaded jam and you can't trust anyone else to get out of it. Give the respect and the title to the player with more years, but the more important role to the better pitcher.

Mike: Thank God you are not GM! It's should go to whoever the best reliever is. Period. The name of "closer" should be renamed to "ace reliever."

Joe: Guess some one's a little behind on their Moneyball. We've named two members, but there are five more spots to go. Two of those will go to left handed specialists Tony Sipp and Rafael Perez while another goes to the side armer Joe Smith. I maintain my confidence with the later, however it slightly wains with the formers. How say you?

Mike: Tony Sipp has more upside simply because he has less career innings under his belt than Perez. Although, situationally, Perez has better splits against righties; making him more than a one hitter guy thus making him more valuable.

Joe: The only thing that bothers me about Sipp was the increase in his home run rate last season. He is still young and capable of returning to form, but he's a more likely victim of the bullpen unpredictability that you mentioned earlier.
With two players left to fill out the roster, there are suddenly a lot of choices. Frank Herrmann, Nick Hagadone, Corey Kluber who all saw time in the pen last year, Spring Training invitees Jeremy Accardo, Chris Ray, Robinson Tejada and Dan Wheeler along with a couple end of the rotation starters like Jeanmar Gomez, David Huff, Jon Garland, Kevin Slowey are all options. Pick two.

Mike: I'm high on Dan Wheeler (reference my article). Also, Nick Hagadon has nasty stuff. If you can remember, he was essentially the deal-breaker in the Victor Martinez to Boston deal; if the Tribe didn't receive Hagadone the deal was off the table. Live fastball and greak makeup for the bullpen. You'll see him have an increased role this year. Is it possible to have three lefties in the back-end of the bullpen?

Joe: You could have seven lefties if some of them could pitch against right handed hitters. Hagadone has starter stuff and I'd love to see him in the pen by the end of the season if he doesn't start. I would start this season with Harvard and either Wheeler or Chris Ray with Jeanmar Gomez and Hagadone ready to go at a moments notice. It will be interesting to see how some of these invites sort themselves out this Spring.

Mike: Ok, Drew Carey. I do not believe the bullpen will be as good as it was last year numbers wise. But it will be one of the best in the league and will be a strength; unlike in Detroit where they can only dream of having arms like ours.

Joe: But they do have Clint Eastwood, so there's something. That wraps it up for this year's preseason Indians Arguments. Stick around all year for more fun and hijinks. See you at Spring Training!

Andre Thornton was the first full time designated hitter for the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe spent the first few years after the implementation of the DH in 1973 plugging in various players, but didn't really have anyone who fit the role until Thornton. From 1977 until 1979 he played first and lead the team as the top offensive player. He then missed all of the 1980 season and was replaced at first by a youngster by the name of Mike Hargrove. Upon his return to the team in 1981 he was changed to DH to allow Grover to stay at first. By the next season Thornton was back to the top of his game, turning in the best season of his career with 32 home runs and 116 RBI. His 109 walks and 161 games from that year remain in the top 10 single season totals for the Indians all time.

As far as his career goes, he was two home runs short of making the top five Indians all time. When he hit his 214th home run it was good for fourth all time as an Indian, but he has been passed since by a trio of 1990's power hitters in Jim Thome, Albert Belle and Manny Ramirez. He remains in the top ten in career walks (and strikeouts) as well. His Silver Slugger in 1984 was the first awarded to a member of the Cleveland Indians. The power hitting first baseman with the big glasses didn't get to enjoy much success while playing with the team, entering and exiting during the down portion of the last century for the Tribe (from 1957-1993), but he will be remembered forever in Indians history as a member of the Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame (class of 2007). 

Chuck Nagy was 12 innings pitched as a Padre from being one of the best players to play his entire career as a Cleveland Indian. Nagy came on strong in 1991, getting a vote for rookie of the year, moving on to a seventh place Cy Young Award finish in 1992. Nagy was the base of the Indians rotation though the greatest decade of their history and the only constant starter over that entire decade. Even though he wasn't always the best pitcher on the team, he was remarkably consistent with ERAs between 3.50 and 4.00 and at least ten wins every season. His durability was also to be admired, as he pitched in at least 33 games every full length season from 1991 to 1999. In the two strike-shortened seasons he still pitched in over 20 games.

His long career allowed him to accumulate a lot of positive statistics placing him among the top ten in wins, starts and strike outs for the Cleveland Indians. That has also allowed him to give up the second most home runs in Indians history. Nagy briefly rejoined the Indians in 2009 when he became the pitching coach for the Columbus Clippers. After a single season back he left to join the Arizona Diamondbacks as their pitching coach where he remains for the present (2013). Nagy was inducted into the Indians Hall of Fame in 2007 due to both his regular season contributions as well as his impressive post season numbers. Nagy played in the playoffs more years than any other Indian pitcher ever (five). He has also pitched more innings and struck out more batters than any other Indians pitcher in the postseason. His thirteen strikeouts in eleven innings the 1996 ALDS lead him to the best K/9 ratio of any pitcher in a single series. Charles Nagy, the Cleveland Indians pitcher of the 1990's.

It’s no secret that the Indians have been disappointed in Matt LaPorta‘s production and development, and last they took a step towards replacing him at first base. 

Casey Kotchman has been the butt of many jokes over the last few seasons, which tends to happen when you’re first baseman that produces just a .304 wOBA with a .125 SLG in nearly 1,500 plate appearances across a three-year stretch like Kotchman did from 2008-2010. He did give the Rays 563 quality plate appearances last season — .351 wOBA and a 125 wRC+ — after coming up in April to replace the suddenly retired Manny Ramirez. That’s the Kotchman the Tribe hope they agreed to sign this afternoon.

As you can see in the graph below, there has been no significant change in the first baseman’s batted ball profile over the last few seasons…

There’s nothing outrageous there that would support his .333 BABIP last season compared to the .277 mark he put up from 2004-2010. I don’t want to take the easy way out and call it good luck, but it is something to be mindful of going forward. It’s possible that many of those ground balls that skirted through the turf infield in Tropicana Field will be slowed down enough by natural grass that fielders will be able to make a play on them, which would do a number on his BABIP and production. For what it’s worth, Kotchman had a .250 BABIP on ground balls last year compared to the .237 league average and his .194 career mark. He also had an operation on his eye last winter, which is definitely worth mentioning.

Kotchman is a very strong gloveman at first base, so he will improve the defense. He’ll also make the lineup even more left-handed than it already is, with switch-hitters Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera representing the team’s only everyday threats from the right side. That can be problematic for a team trying to make a run at a division title, and I can’t help but think Derrek Lee might have been a better fit. Assuming the money isn’t outrageous — and there’s no reason to think it will be — the Indians have upgraded their defense and potentially the offense if the 28-year-old made real improvement last season.

(stats courtesy of Baseball Prospectus)

Casey Kotchman

Joe: We have gathered here today to discuss the Cleveland Indians starting pitching staff. Who are these people, where did they come from, what are they doing here? To start who is the ace?

 Mike: What a hanging curve ball of a question! It has to be Justin Masterson. He cut his HR/FB rate nearly in half at the same time his K/9 rate fell. Which meant that opposing batters weren't hitting the ball hard off him.

Joe: I agree, Masterson was absolutely phenomenal last season and deserved more credit than he got from the rest of the league. In fact the only reason there is any question as to who is the ace is that the rest of baseball thinks it should be the Tribe's number two pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez.

Mike: Ugh. I hope whatever Ubaldo's mechanical flaws were the past year and a half have been worked out this winter in the Dominican. Manny Acta said they were. What is the likely hood that Josh Tomlin opens the season at #2 and Ubaldo at #3?

Joe: I prefer Ubaldo at two and Tomlin at three. It separates the two ground ball pitchers in Masterson and Tomlin with a more powerful strikeout pitcher. It also allows the Indians to give the longer tenured player the higher respected position. Eventually Tomlin will move up in the rotation, but as long as he makes his 30 starts, it doesn't matter which spot he has.

Mike: It's good you bring up the groundball fact: Derek Lowe, Tomlin, Masterson and Carmona, if he pitches this year, ranked in the top 10 among qualified starters in ground ball percentage, and all four have a career ground ball rate north of 50 percent. So let's assume the infield defense is vital to have a good staff this season?

Joe: It is important and it shouldn't be a problem with Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera up the middle. With the top three set the questions really come down to the bottom of the rotation. Kevin Slowey, Derek Lowe, Zach McAllister, Jeanmar Gomez and David Huff are all names up for those last two spots. Who is your favorite?

Mike: For some reason, the Indians brass really like Slowey. Chris Antonetti mentioned that the club tried to aquire him several times the past three seasons. He pitched well in the Metrodome as a fly ball pitcher. In that respect he compliments Masterson and Tomlin. David Huff will be interesting to watch. They need a lefty and he could pitch well enough in the spring to earn the spot at #5.

Joe: I think the obvious 4 and 5 will be Slowey and Lowe, but look forward to seeing McAllister and Gomez. McAllister pitched well during his short time with the team last year and Gomez pitched a perfect game for the Aeros a few years ago. He also pitched well last year, but the perfect game sticks out. Of course "Fausto Carmona" could come back and mess everything up.

Mike: No Huff? Wow. Ok. Derek Lowe is so old they dont even take social security checks from him anymore.

Joe: They have to play Lowe or that whole trade was worthless. I think Slowey would be the first out of the rotation if he doesn't work out the first couple starts. I do think we should discuss the Carmona situation here, seeing how the Indians won't.

Mike: We have to assume he will at some point pitch this season and that the Indians will keep him. What will happen to his contract does not concern us. Do you think the Indians still pick up his option if they knew about this before?

Joe: Absolutely not. His contract was borderline to start with. With the added years to his age, he has been far overvalued. I think there are at least 7 pitchers better than Fausto currently in the Indians system and they should look to void the contract if possible.

Mike: Who can throw a 95 mph sinker? Small market teams must make these type of low risk moves (picking up his option) and hope he becomes like he was in 2007. What's the difference if he lied? College coaches lie all the time in recruiting... We havent won a sausage since 1948; who gives a rip if he lied. Who can throw a 95 mph sinker like he can?

Joe: When a 20 something pitcher has a 5.00+ ERA you can give him another chance, because he may get a little better in the future. Past 30, there is very little chance of improvement. At this point I'd rather see David Huff get his third chance rather than Carmona get his fifth. Who cares how fast he throws when he has given up 87 home runs in 181 games.

Mike: They picked up his option before the "incident," let's give him an opportunity to prove what he can do. No risk to the club after this year.

Joe: I would just rather see that money and playing time given to more worthy players. Have any final thoughts on the overall quality of the rotation as a whole?

Mike: Yeah. Justin Masterson will go 28-2 with a 1.05 ERA. Josh Tomlin will go 25-4 with a 2.01 ERA. David Huff will be comback player of the year with a 1.34 ERA. Your thoughts?

Joe: Great predictions. Hopefully those ERAs don't stem from all the unearned runs that will be scoring. I'm expecting the average innings pitched per start to go down to about 6 to properly make use of the Tribe's tremendous bullpen, which will be the topic of next week's Indians Argument.

7. Dorssys Paulino, SS
DOB: 11/21/94
Height/Weight: 6-0/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2011, Dominican Republic
2011 Stats: DNP
Tools Profile: He has an outstanding hit tool, but he’s probably not a shortstop long-term.

2011 in Review: Paulino was one of the top players in the Dominican, and signed in July to a $1.1 million bonus.
The Good: Paulino's bat was among the most impressive on the international market last summer. He has fantastic bat speed, an excellent feel for contact, and enough strength to project for average power once he fills out. He's an above-average runner, and his arm is plus.
The Bad: In a system filled with impressive young shortstops, Paulino is behind them defensively. He's fast but not quick, and his instincts are below average. However, he could be an above-average second baseman, and might have the bat for third base.
Cool Fact: The first internet radio broadcast, which took place at the University of North Carolina, occurred four days before Paulino was born.
Projection: He has the tools to be a star infielder.
Fantasy Impact: He's eons away from the majors, so there’s no real feel for what he is.
Path to the Big Leagues: Paulino will make his debut in the complex league this summer.
Estimated Debut: 2016

Ray Chapman's story is another tale of what could have been. Chapman grabbed control of the shortstop position in 1913 and was one of the Indians top offensive performers every year he was on the team after that. In 1920 Ray Chapman was replaced by another amazing short stop, Joe Sewell, but it was not because of his talent. August 16th, 1920 was Ray Chapman's last day on the Indians and on Earth as he was struck in the head and killed by a baseball thrown by New York Yankee pitcher, Carl Mays. Ray Chapman remains the only player to have died on a professional baseball field. The Indians went on to win their first World Series that season and Sewell went on to a splendid career and entry into baseball's Hall of Fame. Chapman is still remembered with a large plaque in centerfield at Progressive Field in Cleveland.

As little as he played, Chapman still left his mark on the Indians record books and was inducted into the Cleveland Indians Hall of Fame. He remains in the top ten in career triples and single season steals as well as the top five in career steals.