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All-Time Indians: Tito Francona

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

 

Name: John Patsy Francona       Position: Left Field        
Nick Name: Tito             Number: 14,24          
Tribe Time: 1959-1964           DOB: 11/04/1933        
Accolades: 1961 All-Star, Top 5 MVP 1959          
Stats G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS SB% OBP SLG AVG OPS ISOP
Best Season (1961) 155 592 87 178 30 8 16 85 272 56 52 2 1 67% .363 .459 .301 .822 .159
Career 835 2926 413 832 153 19 85 378 1278 296 358 21 8 72% .353 .437 .284 .790 .152

The Cleveland Indians were Francona's third team after leaving the military in 1955. He came to the team in 1959 when he was traded for Larry Doby the second time (the first time was from the Orioles to the White Sox) this time coming from Detroit. While he played his first season in Cleveland in centerfield, he soon moved to left and then to first base. By the end of his career Tito played in more than 100 games at four different positions (LF, RF, CF and 1B). 

From 1959 through 1963 Francona was one of the top offensive performers on the Indians along with catcher Johnny Romano and first baseman Vic Power (in fact, Francona took over first in 1962 when Power left the team). He hit at least 10 home runs each of those seasons as a light hitting outfielder, topping out with 20 in 1959. He also batted .363 that season, his career high. In 1961 he had his most productive season, setting career highs in runs, RBI and triples.

After a subpar 1964 season, Francona was purchased by the St. Louis Cardinals, his first of five more teams before ending his career. In his entire career he hit 125 home runs, 85 of which were with the Indians. His offensive contributions were enough on their own to make him one of the greatest Indians left fielders in team history. His son Terry followed in his father's footsteps in 1988 by joining the Indians himself. The younger Francona came back in 2012 and is the current manager of the Indians.

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4/24 Recap: Indians 2 - White Sox 3

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Roster Update: The did something very dumb today as they brought back Lou Marson from the DL in exchange for Yan Gomes, who went back to Columbus. The Indians claim they sent Gomes back to AAA because they want him to play everyday, but with Carlos Santana and Nick Swisher signed long term, it is unlikely that Gomes would ever be the starting catcher for the Indians and he is already better than Marson both offensively and defensively. There was absolutely no good reason for this move.

Player of the Game

Jason Kipnis wins his first Player of the Game of 2013 with a single, two steals and one of two Indians RBI. He also made a great diving catch early in the game. His final score was 1.99.

Feathers Up

Jason Kipnis came through in the clutch in the sixth inning, knocking Jose Quintana out of the game after he had pitched just under 19 consecutive shut out innings. Kipnis singled after Drew Stubbs and Michael Brantley had already reached base and knocked in Stubbs for the first run of the game. It was just his third RBI of the season and his 9th hit, so, like Asdrubal Cabrera yesterday, it was good to see him do something positive.

In other good Kipnis news, Jason has three stolen bases in the past two games after just one in his first 11 games. A couple of close games against the White Sox have shown the team speed off more than in the first two weeks of the season with Stubbs, Brantley and Kipnis standing out particularly by taking extra bases in both Chicago games.

The bullpen was great again today, but it was a slightly different cast than normal. Rich Hill took over with two outs in the sixth and struck out both batters he faced. Bryan Shaw then took over for Hill in the 7th and also promptly recorded two outs. Shaw did give up two baserunners in the 8th, but Nick Hagadone came in and struck out the only batter he faced, following which, Joe Smith induced an inning ending double play. The Indians currently have six members of the bullpen who have an ERA sub 2.00 with at least 4 innings pitched.

Feathers Down

Lou Marson is back with the team and already cost the Indians a run. In the first inning tonight, Marson almost threw the ball into centerfield, allowing Alejandro De Aza to steal second easily. De Aza later scored on a single that was followed by a double play. A decent throw (like those made by Yan Gomes earlier this week) would have caught De Aza at second and ended the inning after the double play.

Ryan Raburn (batting fifth for some ungodly reason) had two chances to tie the game today, once with the bases loaded in the fourth inning (down 1-0) and later with a runner on third in the sixth (down 3-2). In the first instance he swung at the first pitch and grounded into an easy double play, ending the inning and the scoring threat. Learning from his early mistake, he swung at the first pitch again in the sixth, flying out to left to end the inning. Of course this isn't Raburn's fault, he is a .177 hitter over the past two seasons. He shouldn't be on the roster at all, let alone batting fifth, but there he was, batting ahead of starters Lonnie Chisenhall and Drew Stubbs as well as Mike Aviles.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 2 - Chicago White Sox 3

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April Prospect Report

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The first prospect report of 2013 featured upper level prospects who were likely to make their Major League debuts this year. They weren't necessarily the prospects with the highest ceiling however. This is the first top ten based on stats from the 2013 season. Only a few of the teams are in season now, so just Columbus Clippers, Akron Aeroes, Carolina Mudcats and Lake County Captains will be included in this list. As always, a player is not considered a prospect once they have played a single game in the Majors and players are only eligible to be ranked once per season. Special notice should go to Jesus Aguilar who was ranked 5th in the first set of ten prospects and now leads all Indians minor leaguers with 22 RBI for Akron.

Francisco Lindor2 1. Francisco Lindor - SS - Advanced A Carolina - Drafted Round 1 in 2011

Lindor is considered not just the Indians top prospect, but one of the best short stops coming up in all of Minor League Baseball. He is so good, the Indians are already considering moving Dorssys Paulino (another great short stop prospect) to second or third so they can both play on the same team together. This also pushed another top infield prospect, Tony Wolters to be switched to catcher. 

So far early this Spring, Lindor is batting .321 with 3 triples and 7 steals (stats through 4/21) If he continues his progression at this pace he could finish the year in Akron and be starting in Columbus as early as 2014. As of now he definitely seems the heir apparant for Asdrubal Cabrera. I've saw him play in a few games in Spring Training and he is definitely Major League ready defensively and is closer than his current level would make him seem with the bat. 

2. Cody Anderson - SP - Advanced A Carolina - Drafted Round 14 in 2011

Anderson was the ace for the Lake County Captains lase season and has been even better so far this year in Akron. This is his third season with Cleveland and he looks to be one of the Indians top starting pitching prospects. In three starts he has allowed just four runs (2.25 ERA) and is 2-0. While the Indians have a glut of middle infield prospects, they aren't very deep in starting pitching at the minor league level, so Anderson should be particularly exciting. He will likely spend the entire season in Carolina, so he is still a few years away from the pros, but will be one to watch over the next few years.

3. Joseph Wendle - 2B - Advanced A Carolina - Drafted Round 6 in 2012

Just drafted last season, Wendle is yet to play a significant amount in the minors, but is already an exciting prospect. So far this year he is batting over .400 in a very impressive Mudcat offense, most of which is also on this top ten list. He has been a productive member of that offense, knocking in and scoring ten runs each. In 75 MiLB games since being drafted last season, he has a .342 average and 100 hits. He has played some at third base as well as second over the past two seasons, but is significantly better defensively at second.

Matt Langwell 4. Matt Langwell - P - AAA Columbus - Drafted Round 11 in 2008

The only member of the Clippers to make this month's list, mostly because the rest of the team is ineligible as they have already played in the Majors. Langwell started in the starting rotation, but was bumped out after injuries and roster moves stacked the Columbus rotation. In 5 games (8 innings), he is yet to allow a single run, and has only allowed 6 base runners (3 walks, 3 hits). With at least four starters ahead of him on the depth chart (Daisuke Matsuzaka, David Huff, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer), he is unlikely to see the Majors this year as a starter, but could be used as a short term reliever if an Ubaldo Jimenez start forces the Indians to use 8 innings of relief pitching in a single game.

Tyler Naquin 5. Tyler Naquin - OF - Advanced A Carolina - Drafted Round 1 in 2012

Similar to Wendle, Naquin was drafted last season and is now a big part of the Mudcats offense. He is batting just over .300 this season with 10 RBI and 10 runs of his own. Naquin played well this Spring for the Indians and should see an early call-up to AA as the most advanced player from the 2012 draft.

6. Michael Peoples - RP - A Lake County - Drafted Round 14 in 2012

Peoples has come up quick as a right handed reliever, holding an ERA of 1.65 in 32 career innings (0.00 ERA in 9 this year). Most impressively, he has struck out 12 batters already this year, giving him a K/9 of 12 (do the math on that one). He has also walked just two, giving him 6-1 K-BB ratio. He did have some issues defensively last season with three errors out of six fielding chances, but so far he fielded two balls in 2013 and is yet to make an error.

7. Toru Murata - SP - AA Akron - 2011 International Free Agent

Murata is going into his third season with the Indians at the ripe old age of 27 and has become a starter after initially being used in relief. This has been his best season (at least early on) at his highest level, averaging almost 6 innings and 5 strike outs per start. At his age, he will need a quick promotion to AAA before he gets to far past his prime to be a real Major League prospect.

Giovanny Urshela 8. Giovanny Urshela -  3B - AA Akron - 2008 International Free Agent

Urshela is one of the Indians top third base prospects at this point. He was the starting third baseman for his home country of Colombia in the 2012 World Baseball Classic qualifier and is now one of the top hitters on the Aeroes. Through less than a month he already has 5 doubles and 8 RBI. To go along with his production he has a line of .300/.333/.433, one of the best on the team. 

9. Eric Haase - C - A Lake County - Drafted Round 7 in 2011

Haase is having the best year to this point of his minor league career, batting almost .300 with 7 early season RBI. This is also the highest level Haase has played at. The Indians are incredibly weak at catcher below the Yan Gomes level, so any positive is huge for the organization.

10. Jacob Lee - SP - Advanced A Carolina - Drafted Round 9 in 2012

Lee was used mostly as a reliever in his first half season last year, but has been moved to the starting rotation and has impressed. He leads all Mudcats with his 16 strike outs and in his two years has struck out 63 in just 60 innings pitched.  The large amount of recent draft picks (from 2011 and 2012) on this list are from a combination of a weak upper level of the Indians system and great draft picks over the last two years. 

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4/22 Recap: Indians 3 - White Sox 2

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Player of the Game

Justin Masterson won his team tying third Player of the Game of the season with his fourth win. His ERA actually increased, despite allowing just two runs, to a hefty 1.85. Masterson struck out five batters while allowing just four hits in 7 innings. His final POG score was 4.43, making it his worst win of the year from a statistical stand point.

Feathers Up

A bad hop and some hustle lead to the Indians first run as Jason Giambi scored from second on what should have been a Lonnie Chisenhall single. Alejandro De Aza completely whiffed on the ball, allowing Chisenhall to reach second, knocking in the Indians first run.

With the White Sox threatening in the seventh inning with two on and nobody out, Carlos Santana caught pinch runner Blake Tekotte out at second while De Aza was trying to sacrifice bunt. The pressure off, Justin Masterson induced an easy double play to Jason Kipnis.

The Indians had a new hero tonight as Asdrubal Cabrera came through in the clutch for the first time in a long time. With runners on second and third after a botched pick off, Cabrera knocked a single to center to score both Drew Stubbs and Michael Brantley with two outs. The hit brought his average up to .156 and the RBI were his first that didn't come from a home run. Stubbs deserves a lot of the credit as well as his prior steal of second caused the throw to second that moved both him and Brantley up a base. Because of this meddlesome base running, the Indians were able to score both the tying and the go ahead runs on Asdrubal's single.

Feathers Down

Justin Masterson had some control issues early allowing two base runners in each of the first two innings and his first home run of the season. Masterson still had a nice line (7 IP, 2 ER, 4H), but many of his outs were fly or line outs, something he generally tries to avoid.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 3 - Chicago White Sox 2

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Burning River Radio Ep. 5

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Check out the best episode of Burning River Radio yet! Listen to Mike's great argument about why Bob Wickman's number should be retired throughout the league because he was the first teletubby to play professional baseball. Also, there are things we actually talked about like Mariano Rivera Day, Killing the AAA Astros, retiring the 1995 Indians, Omar's music career, lineup madness and the arch nemesis of Burning River Radio: Lou Marson.

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Series Preview: Indians at White Sox 4/22-24

Written by Mike Melaragno on .

 

Cleveland Indians (7-10) at Chicago White Sox (7-11
Series 7, Games 18, 19 and 20
U.S. Cellular Field, Chicago: 0.827*, Extreme pitchers park.
 
Series Overview
The Indians will play the White Sox for the second series this season. The first series was very entertaining and I expect this one to be the same.
Slugger Adam Dunn has certainly struggled this season so far. He is batting just .098 this season and has played in all but one game, when he was held out during an inter league game at Washington with the DH spot unavailable. He has two home runs and five RBIs with a .213 slugging percentage and a .154 on-base percentage over his first 16 games. 
Dayan Viciedo was diagnosed with a left oblique strain was put on the disabled-list on April 20th. He injured himself on a swing Thursday night at Toronto and was immediately removed from the game. It didn't look serious, although he was wincing in pain immediately after he was removed from the game. The left fielder was batting .229 with a .417 slugging percentage over his first 14 games, hitting two home runs with five RBIs. 
Despite a 7-11 record to start the season, I believe the White Sox will eventually win the division. This is another chance for the Indians to prove they belong in the race.
 

Prediction: Indians lose series 2-1. Justin Masterson pitches a masterpiece and out duals Dylan Axelrod for the only series victory.



Monday, April 22 8:10 EDT (STO)
Justin Masterson (3-1, 1.67 ERA)  vs. Dylan Axelrod (0-1, 4.70 ERA)
 
In what would be considered a disappointing start this season, Masterson allowed four runs over five innings and was the losing pitcher Wednesday against the Red Sox. He gave up 11 hits while walking one and striking out five. After allowing just one run over his first 22 innings of work this season Masterson was "hit around"  as the Red Sox were able to put three runs on the board in the first inning. His ERA on the season now stands at 1.67 to go along with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.Axelrod, who is getting the start in place of the injured John Danks, will get his chance to finally prove that he belongs in the big leagues as a starting pitcher. San Diego drafted him in the 30th round in 2007 out of Cal Irvine, where he was a reliever. The Sox signed him out of the Frontier League and converted him into a starter and he has flourished. His stuff is average at best, but he has fantastic control and knows how to pitch. Axelrod posted a BB/9 of 1.1 in 2010 between high-A and AA and followed that up with a 2.1 BB/9 mark in 2011 between AA and AAA. Last season, he earned a 7.06 K/9 pitching both out of the bullpen and starting rotation for the Sox. Despite low walk numbers and low ERA's, Axelrod didn't get any attention until he had a strong September call-up with the Sox in 2011 (2.89 ERA, 19 K, 9 BB in 18.2 IP). 

Tuesday, April 23, 8:10EDT (STO)
Zach McAllister (1-2, 3.12 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (L) (1-0, 2.55 ERA)
 
Quintana had a very good start against the Indians on April 12 which he lost because the Sox did not score any runs off Justin Masterson to support their starting pitcher. It took a ninth inning game winning single from Nick Swisher to break the 0-0 tie and win the game.
Throughout his career, Quintana has displayed a ground ball tendency and pretty strong control. His minor league history also showed solid strikeout rates. His fastball velocity isn’t great at 90.4 miles per hour, but acceptable for a lefty, and is likely a good reason why he only throws it a bit more than 50% of the time. In the start against the Indians and his subsequent start against Toronto, he started to mix in his curve-ball more. After throwing it an average of 15% of the time both in the minors and majors, he has thrown it an average of 22% in his last two starts. It's too early to tell if this is a new trend from him or not. 


Wednesday, April 24, 2:10EDT (STO)
Corey Kluber (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (L) (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

multitude of events are the reason why Corey Kluber will get his first start of the year on Wednesday. Personally, I favored Kluber from spring training to win a spot in the rotation. He has fantastic stuff with very good movement on his breaking balls. Because he has deep pitching selection, he is best suited for the starting rotation as opposed to the bullpen.

 

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4/21 Recap: Indians 5 - Astros 4

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Player of the Game

Carlos Santana took home the Player of the Game today in his first game at first base in 2013. Santana hit a huge home run to left in the fifth inning to give the Indians the lead and had doubled and scored earlier in the game. His POG score of 4.41 just beat out Yan Gomes who had a home run and triple of his own.

Feathers Up

When Lou Marson is set to come off the disabled list next week, maybe they should send him back to Columbus instead of Cleveland. Yan Gomes hit his second home run of the season today in just four games, giving him more home runs in his Indians career than Marson has had in the past three seasons combined (151 games). Going into the season it was obvious that Gomes was a better player now and had a higher ceiling than Marson and that fact is even more obvious now.

Mark Reynolds has only won one 'Player of the Game' this year, but has been the team's top offensive player to this point. His home run today gave him seven on the year (tied for the AL lead) and 18 RBI. He has been everything that was expected of him and more. His home run today gave the Indians back the lead after it was squandered by starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez.

Ubaldo Jimenez was not as bad as he was last time. Or the time before that.

Brett Oberholtzer may be a super star some day or he may be a career AAAA middle reliever, but he can always remember that the first Major League batter he faced was Carlos Santana and that he hit a ball as hard as humanly possible that was only stopped by a concrete wall well past the outfield wall.

For the first time since the second game of the season, the Indians went into the seventh inning with a lead of under three runs. One of the greatest parts of this Indians team is the back-end of the bullpen and that has been neutralized as there have been very few close games. Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez got to do their jobs today with a one run lead and performed admirably, earning two holds and a save between them.

Feathers Down

Jimenez still wasn't very good. At one point he set down 14 straight batters, but it needs to be taken into consideration that he was facing the worst offense in the American League. He looked poised to pitch into the sixth and possibly earn a win, but a single and triple to lead off the inning forced him out of the game before he retired a batter.

Play of the Game

Drew Stubbs hit his first home run as an Indian and his 9th against Houston, but where it landed is what made this the play of the game. Check out the video here as a fan caught the home run ball in his popcorn. Don't worry, Fox Sports Ohio's own Katie Witham bought him a replacement box.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 5 - Houston Astros 4

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4/20 Recap: Indians 19 - Astros 6

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Roster Update: Indians starter Scott Kazmir was recalled from the 15 day DL just before the game and infielder Cord Phelps was sent back to AAA in his place. Phelps was only on the team to help out at second while Jason Kipnis was recovering from his elbow injury. Now that Kipnis is back, Phelps is not needed. Other moves expected in the near future include Brett Myers possibly going to the DL, Lou Marson returning from the DL and Matt Albers coming back from paternity leave.

Player of the Game

Jason Giambi did what he does best and hit his second home run of the season to win him his first Player of the Game for 2013. He also hit a double, making all three of his hits on the year extra base hits. In a very productive game, Giambi lead all Indians with five RBI and three runs scored and walked twice as well. His score of 10.42 gives him the second best single game of the year.

Feathers Up

Following an out by Michael Brantley to lead off the game, the next nine Indians batters reached base, scoring 8 runs on 8 hits. The eight runs scored in the first represent the same amount the Indians have scored in total in the past three games and more than they have scored in any one game in the past week.

The Indians didn't stop scoring in the first inning as they batted around again in the second, scoring another 6 in the second. They kept scoring and put up another five, giving them 19 runs before it was all over. They scored in each of the first five innings and didn't go down in order until the 7th inning.

Milestone Alert: Jason Giambi's 4th inning home run was not just his first home run against Houston, giving him home runs against every single team in Major League Baseball, it was also career number 431, tying him with Cal Ripken, Jr. for 42nd all time in baseball history.

Other offensive notes: Nick Swisher set career highs in hits (4), runs scored (3) and doubled his doubles for the season with another career high of three.Every hitter on the Indains roster (except Ryan Raburn) had a hit within their first two at bats, including early replacement Mike Aviles who hit an RBI single. Along with Swisher, Jason Giambi, Carlos Santana, Michael Branltey and Mark Reynolds each knocked in multiple runs. Each of the Indians starters (and Aviles) scored at least one run with Giambi, Swisher and Santana each scoring three. The Indians walked 8 times in addition to their 22 hits. They were also helped out by three Astros errors.

Feathers Down

Asdrubal Cabrera hurt his wrist after his second at bat in the first inning and left the game before ever getting into the field. He is day to day.

Lost in all the run scoring, Scott Kazmir had a fairly terrible game, giving up six runs in four innings. He lucked out by the barrage of offense, keeping him in a game that he probably would have lost on any other day this year. Even so, he wasn't able to earn his first win in two years as he was pulled from the game during the fouth inning. His high pitch count forced to use a lot more of their bullpen than the Indians would have liked to in a game that was almost a guaranteed win by the second inning.

Nick Swisher was unable to grab a fifth hit tonight, despite three at bats after his fourth. The first four spots in the lineup batted 7 times each tonight, essentially giving them two nights worth of offensive stats.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 19 - Houston Astros 6

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4/19 GAME RECAP: INDIANS 2 - ASTROS 3

Written by Jen Coblitz on .

Player of the Game

Lonnie Chisenhall provided the Indians with their only 2 runs, hitting a 2-run home run in the 4th innings. This is Chisenhall's first Player of the Game this year with a score of 4.18.

Feathers Up

Though Brett Myers appeared to be pitching injured, he pitched 5 solid innings. Myers did give up 2 home runs, but limited the Astros to just 3 runs.

Jason Kipnis performed well in his first game back from an elbow inury. Kipnis went 2-4 with 2 singles, a walk, and stole his first base of the year.

Feathers Down

The Indians fell tonight to the worst team in baseball, extending their losing streak to 5 games.

Brett Myers still has not recorded a win this season. Myers now has a 0-3 record in 3 starts.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 2 - Houston Astros 3

 

 

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First Homestand Attendance Analysis

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Going into the season, the Cleveland Indians PR team was bragging about selling out the home opener in ten minutes after the Michael Bourn signing, making it seem like a return to age when getting tickets to a home opener meant standing in a line for hours and finding out they sold out before you got to the front.

The Indians have sold out every Opening Day since 2007 (when they didn't officially have one) except for 2010 when they sold a season high 38,900 seats. So basically, selling out Opening Day isn't that exciting since they have done it almost every single season since Jacob's Field opened in 1994. 

The real trick is the rest of the opening home stand as in recent years these have been some of the worst selling games in franchise history. In fact, in 2011 the Indians set an all time low in attendance during the second game of the year, then reset the record the next day, hitting an all-time low of 8,726. Of course, all these numbers are total tickets sold, not actually fans in the park, so they are even inflated a little over how many people were at the game. 

There is good reason for fans to stay away from the ballpark on those days, in general the sub-50 degree temperatures that can be expected the first few weeks in April. This season the weather has been particularly nasty, but when the tickets for these games went on sale, no one could have predicted the weather for the past week and as stated before, attendance numbers reflect total tickets sold, not actual game day attendance.

Since 2007 (well after the Indians sell out streak ended), the Indian have averaged about 18,000 fans per game in April (and a few in March), almost 5,000 per game below their regular season average. This season, the Indians have averaged 11,427 fans per game in April (there is one home game left this month), almost 7,000 fans per game less than their already low average. This is despite playing their first six games on the road in domes, waiting for the weather to warm up in Cleveland. 

Going back to 2011, that opening series can probably be considered the worst home stand since the creation of Jacob's Field. The Indians opened the season at home (always a mistake) against Chicago and averaged just 9,500 fans per game (excluding the sold out opener). Obviously, this was worse than this season, but the average temperature was just 41º compared to this years 53º and it came after an absolutely terrible 2010 season, while this year saw the most exciting offseason in years.

Early Spring press made it seem like ticket sales were good and season ticket sales were up, but a sub 10,000 fan crowd against Boston on Tuesday made things look a little different. This is made even worse when you look at who they played. The Yankees are the best single team draw for the Indians and they came for the only time this year last week. Over the past six years the Indians have averaged almost 9,000 more fans against New York than their normal average and average almost 1,000 more fans against the AL East in general. Most likely the weather kept those "die hard" Yankee fans away this year, when they normally come in July, meaning it probably cost the Indians as many as 40,000 total ticket sales by having this series early in the year.

Overall, the situation looks bad. The Indians likely overexagerated preseason sales in an attempt to bolster ticket sales, but it didn't work as well as they hoped. These early season number are embarassing, and go to show that Indians fans are completely jaded and will not buy in speculation. The Indians record may have proven their fans correct for staying home, it just remains to be seen if the Indians start winning, will the fans show up? Early speculation: probably not.

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