Terry Francona Announced as Indians Manager

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

At this point, it is fairly well known that the Indians have chosen Terry Francona over Sandy Alomar, Jr as the next manager of the Cleveland Indians. The Indians had two choices, representing two extremely divergent paths in the two managers. Alomar is a representative of the past. He is a huge part of Indians history and one of the most popular players that is still alive. He is loved by the players and respected and would bring in some fans who are looking for some 1990's nostalgia. 

Francona on the other hand, is someone who, while he has played for the Indians and been part of the front office, has no real ties to Indians players or fans. He is a known winner, being the first manager to bring a championship to the Boston Red Sox in an eternity in 2004, then he did it again in 2007. He was able to control players that ended up being very hard to deal with, like Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez and was able to get the absolute most out of some aging players, like Curt Schilling and youngsters like Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon. His experience in the much more competitive American League East should bring a new view point to the more laid back AL Central.

The Indians made the right choice. While Alomar would have been a fun manager and would have brought a few extra fans in for a short period, Francona is more experienced and has a better chance of winning right off the bat. Bringing a winning team back to Cleveland is what will really bring the fans in long term, not simple 90's nostalgia. The best of both worlds would be for Alomar to retain as bench coach, where he has been a great influence over the past couple of years. He has helped Carlos Santana immensely on defense and will be an asset to whatever team he is part of. The Indians would probably be the hardest team for him to manage, because he has so much invested in the team already. Instead of thinking mechanically, like Francona most likely will, he may start to manage with his heart, which can never go well. Also, if he does struggle, the players are more likely to lose confidence in him than Francona as he has so much less experience.

Most likely, Sandy will get his managers role with some team this offseason, whether it is with Francona's former team the Boston Red Sox, or another team who has tired of their leadership. The Tribe showed their goal really is to win, rather than just to placate a few fans who probably don't know half the players on the current roster. The kind of fans that complain about the Indians not having a Kenny Lofton or Roberto Alomar type player, yet don't even know Jason Kipnis or Michael Brantley's names. The fact that the Indians were so quick to announce Francona, they just interviewed him yesterday, show how easy the decision was for them.

Now that the manager has been hired (it will be officially announced on Monday), Terry Francona can go about assembling his coaching staff. The sooner this whole process is finished, the better off the team will be. Chris Antonetti needs to work hand-in-hand with Terry when deciding which trades to make and which free agents to sign. The faster this is finished, the better off the Indians will be when competing with other teams for talent during the offseason.

Congratulations to new Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona and good luck to Sandy Alomar, wherever you end up in 2012.

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Indians Top 10 Records Update

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Despite the team not having many 10 year veterans (just one actually) and not having many truly amazing seasons (just two), a couple Indians players did manage to encroach on the All-Time records just a little bit.

Single Season

Holds:

Vinnie Pestano (36) took over first all time in single season holds from Rafael Betancourt (31).

Joe Smith (21) passed Paul Shuey (19) for 8th all time.

Saves:

Chris Perez had a shot at the number one spot, but ended up tying for 6th with Jose Mesa and Mike Jackson with 39 saves in a single season.

Career

Hit Batters:

Roberto Hernandez (59) hit a single batter this year, moving him into a third place tie with long time Indians starter Mel Harder in this coveted statistic.

Holds:

Along with the single season record, there was a lot of movement in the career record list for holds. Rafael Perez (69) remains in second place behind Rafael Betancourt (84).

Vinnie Pestano (68) passed Paul Shuey (67) for third all time.

Joe Smith (63) and Tony Sipp (60) are 5th and 6th, respectively, after pushing back Ricardo Rincon (43) and Bob Howry (37) to 7th and 8th.

The Hold has existed since 1999, so although it isn't the most meaningful stat, it does show that the Indians current bullpen is very good, with four of the top ten spots taken by players currently on the roster.

Saves:

Chris Perez (99) recently passed Mike Jackson (94) for 4th all time in career saves.

Winning Percentage:

A single win was enough to push Rafael Perez (21-12, .636) into 10th all-time in winning percentage among pitchers with at least 25 decisions. He passed Cliff Lee (83-48, .634)

Strike Outs:

Travis Hafner remains in second place with 881 career strike outs.

Home Runs:

Travis Hafner (200) passed Al Rosen (192) in career home runs this year, moving him to 8th all time. Of all the records that were updated this season, this is the only one that really matters. Hafner should be honored and praised for his career with the Indians that took a lot more physically from him than anyone ever gives him credit for. Pronk is the greatest DH the Indians have ever had the pleasure of putting in their lineup and there doesn't appear to be anyone else approaching who is anywhere near his level. This particular number probably won't be updated again for a long time unless Shin-Soo Choo can play for the Tribe at least another six years at his current level.

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Player of the Game Results 2012

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

One of the things that separates Burning River Baseball from any of those other Cleveland Indians blogs is my Player of the Game stat. It's an all inclusive equation that can be used to compare different players using offense, defense and pitching. The original purpose of the equation was to figure out which player should be called the Player of the Game in any individual game, but it is also useful when comparing seasons and careers. An in depth description is available here.

This year there wasn't a whole lot to get excited about, but here are the numbers from 2012:

Player POG Offense Defense Pitching Total Score PPG
Jason Kipnis 15 210.4 -4.1 0.0 206.3 1.4
Shin-Soo Choo 8 207.9 -2.6 0.0 205.3 1.3
Carlos Santana 18 190.3 -19.4 0.0 170.9 1.2
Michael Brantley 6 168.2 0.4 0.0 168.6 1.1
Asdrubal Cabrera 10 181.7 -28.7 0.0 152.6 1.1
Casey Kotchman 6 121.6 -6.3 0.0 115.5 0.8
Travis Hafner 5 76.6 0.0 0.0 76.8 1.2
Shelley Duncan 9 72.7 -0.2 0.0 72.5 0.9
Jack Hannahan 3 67.5 -10.8 0.0 56.7 0.6
Vinnie Pestano 0 0.0 0.5 55.5 56.0 0.8
Jose Lopez 6 58.2 -6.9 0.0 51.3 0.8
Johnny Damon 2 52.2 -1.3 0.0 50.9 0.8
Joe Smith 3 0.0 -0.7 47.9 47.5 0.7
Chris Perez 1 0.0 0.4 45.4 46.4 0.8
Lou Marson 2 45.1 -2.8 0.0 42.4 0.6
Ezequiel Carrera 3 40.5 0.5 0.0 40.9 0.9
Lonnie Chisenhall 3 42.7 -11.0 0.0 31.6 0.7
Esmil Rogers 2 0.3 0.7 30.5 31.5 0.7
Justin Masterson 15 -0.2 3.4 24.8 28.0 0.8
Jason Donald 1 30.5 -4.7 0.0 25.6 0.6
Russ Canzler 3 26.3 -4.0 0.0 22.3 0.9
Zach McAllister 4 0.0 -1.4 22.8 21.4 1.0
Brent Lillibridge 0 27.3 -9.4 0.0 17.9 0.4
Aaron Cunningham 0 14.0 0.4 0.0 14.4 0.2
Frank Herrmann 1 0.0 0.0 13.2 13.2 0.9
Tony Sipp 3 0.0 0.2 12.8 13.2 0.2
Cody Allen 3 0.0 0.9 9.9 10.8 0.4
Matt LaPorta 2 9.3 -0.2 0.0 9.1 0.4
David Huff 0 0.0 0.3 8.5 8.8 1.5
Cord Phelps 1 8.5 0.2 0.0 8.7 0.6
Chris Seddon 2 0.0 -0.6 7.5 6.9 0.4
Vinny Rottino 0 6.0 0.3 0.0 6.3 0.4
Jeremy Accardo 3 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.8 0.2
Thomas Neal 0 4.4 -0.1 0.0 4.3 0.5
Rafael Perez 1 0.0 0.1 3.0 3.1 0.4
Scott Barnes 0 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.1 0.2
Luke Carlin 1 4.0 -1.9 0.0 2.1 0.5
Juan Diaz 0 2.8 -4.7 0.0 1.0 0.2
Nick Hagadone 0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0
Jairo Asencio 3 0.0 0.8 -1.5 -0.7 0.0
Corey Kluber 2 0.0 -0.2 -1.8 -2.0 -0.2
Roberto Hernandez 0 0.0 -0.1 -10.5 -3.6 -10.7
Ubaldo Jimenez 5 1.1 -1.5 -6.8 -7.2 -0.2
Jeanmar Gomez 3 0.0 1.9 -11.2 -9.2 -0.5
Scott Maine 0 0.0 0.1 -10.1 -10.1 -1.1
Derek Lowe 4 1.1 3.5 -15.8 -11.2 -0.5
Dan Wheeler 0 0.0 0.0 -11.6 -11.6 0.9
Josh Tomlin 4 0.3 2.6 -28.7 -25.8 -1.2

A couple things to note:

  • The reason players have such large negative numbers in their defensive column (particularly Cabrera) is because in this system unearned runs go to the fielder who made the error, rather than the pitcher. Great defensive plays (as judged by the writer of the post game each night), outfield assists and other defensive stats are included, but constitute a rather small part of the equation.
  • This shows what every Indians fan already knows, that there are five very good players on this team and a lot of other replaceable parts. Kipnis, Choo, Brantley, Santana and Cabrera are miles ahead of everyone else on the roster and the main players the Indians need to build on for the future.
  • The rankings for a strong team would show the first couple places taken by offensive players who play everyday, followed by the starting pitching staff with relief pitchers and utility players making up the bottom of the list. This year's rankings show extreme deficiencies on the Indians roster because you can see the top four pitchers are relievers and five of the worst eight players on the team were in the regular starting rotation. Utility players can be found all throughout the list with the back-up catcher ranking in at 15. This is mostly because he played more than most other players. 
  • With just 8 awards this season, Choo captured the top spot in the all-time Player of the Game leader board with 58 in his career, just edging out Grady Sizemore's 57 since 2007 when I started keeping track. Hafner is dropped to third all time with 55, while Jhonny Peralta sits in 4th with 51.

Don't be surprised if this list looks a lot like year end player rankings which should be coming out in the next few days. Next season, the monthly player power rankings will be exclusively based off the Player of the Game equation. This is how things went last season. Needless to say, things were a little better then.

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Moving On

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Things did not go the way the Indians would have liked in 2012 to say the least. The same core of talented players that has been together since the Indians were the best team in the AL in 2007 was finally healthy all at the same time and looked poised to take a run at another Central Division title. Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore, Rafael Perez, Fausto Carmona, Shin-Soo Choo and Asdrubal Cabrera have all been around since at least 2007 and were poised for career (or contract) years, while the recent addition of Ubaldo Jimenez looked to shore up the pitching staff. The young players were also promising, especially the bullpen including Vinnie Pestano, Chris Perez and Joe Smith and the two young infielders in their second seasons, Jason Kipnis and Lonnie Chisenhall.

Things started falling apart early with Carmona turning out to be Roberto Heredia Hernandez and Sizemore injuring his back (and his knee), ultimately ending his season before Spring Training even started. Within the first two weeks Rafael Perez joined him on the out for season DL, removing three important veterans from the Indians clubhouse within the first month of the regular season. Then the Indians made a huge mistake by signing Johnny Damon as an outfielder to replace the presence of Sizemore. Damon was later released when the Indians fell out of the race. Lonnie Chisenhall also missed most of the season, the first part due to a poor managerial decision to keep him in AAA and the latter part after he was hit on the fore arm by a pitch.

Despite these issues, and massive drops in production from the entire starting rotation, the Indians remained in contention through the All-Star break. Jimenez was the biggest disappointment on the staff, since his price for acquisition was the Indians top two pitching prospects, both of whom would have been playing for the Tribe this season otherwise. Nobody should forget another mistake made by management, however, that saw Derek Lowe continue to make starts long after his effectiveness has waned. Justin Masterson saw a huge drop off from last years break out performance just when the Indians were expecting him to move onto the next level and become the teams ace. When Jimenez and Masterson struggled it left the Indians without an ace after they went into the season thinking they had two.

In August, all the Indians problems aligned. Every starting pitcher struggled, even Zach McAllister, who was the most consistent starting pitcher all season. This lead to a pitching staff that allowed an average of 6.2 runs per game. The offense, which was without power all season, was brought down even further by the absence of Hafner (on the DL with a bulging disc), the only true power hitter on the team, and scored just 3.3 runs per game that month. When you put those two numbers together, the surprise should be that the Indians were able to win even the five games they did. Going 5-24 over the span of any month during the year is enough to keep any team out of playoff contention and it did just that for the Indians.

This was about the time when Manny Acta fell out of favor with the team. A few players have come out since his firing with comments that he simply didn't care enough when the Indians season was falling apart. Acta never really pressed his players to push themselves harder to win, instead taking a more laid back approach, feeling they were already pushing themselves too far. It's impossible to tell which is the truth, but the players on the field certainly looked as if they had given up.

Going into next season, the Indians cannot just be complacent and let the world move around them. Sandy Alomar, Jr. was named interim manager for the last three games of the year and is one of two applicants for the job in 2013, along with former Red Sox (World Series winning) manager Terry Francona. Both are former Indians players with great credentials to be the next Indians manager and either would be a fine choice. The more important moves will be in player development, retention and procurement. 

The most important thing for the Indians to work on in the off season is getting the players that are staying around either back to the form they once had, like in the case of Masterson and Jimenez, or pushing them to the next level in their development, like with Kipnis, Chisenhall and Ezequiel Carrera. The Indians should accept Jimenez's option as it is still cheap for a player of his caliber. This doesn't mean he can sit where he is right now and just wait for next year. He has great "stuff" and needs to work on maintaining a consistent delivery along with keeping better control over the strike zone. Jimenez was burned by base runners that got on base via the walk many times this year, and that should be something that is completely within his power to stop. Masterson is in a very similar situation and needs to work in the off season to get back to his 2011 form. It will be interesting to see now if the Indians go looking for a new pitching coach after the manager is signed or if they will stick with the in house option of Ruben Niebla.

The younger players like Kipnis, Chisenhall, Carrera and possibly Russ Canzler all need to work on avoiding the regress that has affected many young Tribe players over the past few years. There is a good chance that all four of these players could not just be on the 25 man roster next year, but could be starters integral to the Indians success. Kipnis' first two seasons are comparable to some of the best by any Indians rookie ever and could be very special if he continues on this path.

Personnel decisions are going to be incredibly important in the upcoming off season, especially the signing of Shin-Soo Choo to a long term deal. What the Indians do with Choo this off season will be the most telling aspect of the off season as far as their expectations and plans for the future. If he is traded, it will signify giving up on the next two seasons, while signing him long-term (3-5 years) would be a show of confidence in the current team. Three players that need to be said good-bye to are Hafner, Sizemore and Hernadez. These players are simply too high an injury risk to deal with their limited abilities at any price. While all three are very talented and could possibly produce more in their careers, it simply isn't worth the roster spot or money that could be given to a younger player with higher prospects.

Finally, the Indians need to sign players that are not currently involved in the organization. Whether this means veteran free agents (the Prince Fielder variety, not the Trot Nixon type), through trade (the Indians could spare to part with a left-handed reliever or two and those are always in demand) or on the international market. The Tribe really missed out this year by not signing Yeonis Cespedes, a player they were linked with before he signed with the Athletics (and helped them to a playoff spot) and they need to be more vigilant in the future. With the expiring contracts of Hafner, Sizemore and Hernandez, the Indians should have plenty of extra money to go after one or two players. With most of the roster already set for next year, the highest priority needs to be finding a designated hitter with significant power. After this, left field and first base are undecided positions as well that have possible fillings from within the Indians system, but could definitely be improved from the outside. While the starting pitching was terrible this year, the Indians still have a potentially decent five man rotation with Masterson, Jimenez, McAllister, Carlos Carrasco (coming back from Tommy John surgery) and a choice between David Huff, Corey Kluber, Jeanmar Gomez or Chris Seddon. Even T.J. McFarland or Eric Berger, currently in the minors for the Indians, could be ready for their debuts in 2013.

The 2013 Indians could be very good. A disappointing 2012 season will make them extremely underrated going into next year, an aspect that worked in their favor in 2007 and 2011, when they finished much higher in the standings than they were expected to. Any additions to the team, along with a new manager that will automatically be a fan favorite, would be a huge step in motivating a fan base that is jaded and tired of the same lack of inspiration, year after year. The change in management in addition to a fantastic bullpen and a young, talented core of athletic fielders (Choo, Cabrera, Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana) put the Indians in a prime position to make a couple moves to get them back into first. The winner of the central division ended the season with the worst record of all the AL playoff teams, showing just how winnable this division is. There is no reason at all for the Indians to not go all in for 2013.

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Extra Wild Card = Extra Wild?

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Double your Wild Cards and Double Your Fun! Or does it. With the playoff spots just about decided, it seems like a good time to look back at the first season with two Wild Card teams. Of course, since this is an Indians blog, we'll always have an Indians centric view of the world.

While early in the season it looked like a lot of crazy situations could pan out, with about half the league vying for a playoff spot, things settled down fairly quickly. In the AL Tampa Bay and Los Angeles were in it until this past week, but Seattle was removed from the conversation long ago after making a slight post All-Star break push and the other four teams never had any chance. Chicago, who was eliminated from the division race yesterday, is actually 8 games back from the second Wild Card with just two games left. The National League was similar with most of the teams out by early September and just a few teams left fighting for that final spot (the Dodgers are technically still in the hunt at two games behind St. Louis).

For now, forget about the NL, because this is really all about the White Sox. While both the White Sox and the Tigers seem like elite teams in the AL, if the playoffs were completely decided by Win-Loss record, neither team would be in at all. There are only nine other teams in the league outside of the Central and six of them have better records than any team in the Central. This seems to happen every year, and is the number one reason for the creation of the second Wild Card. The big money teams, who spend about $100 Million more on salary each year than the Indians, wanted to make sure they all could make the playoffs, even when they play in the same division. This playoff spot was created for the Red Sox, they just didn't want it this year. Going back a few years, it is obvious who would have taken that last Wild Card spot.

Year Actual Wild Card Second Wild Card
2011 Tampa Bay Boston
2010 New York Boston
2009 Boston Texas
2008 Boston New York
2007 New York Seattle/Detroit
2006 Detroit Chicago
2005 Boston Cleveland
2004 Boston Oakland
2003 Boston Seattle
2002 Los Angeles

Boston/Seattle

Each team that would have won the second Wild Card in the last ten year, with the exception of the Indians in 2005, Oakland in 2004 and two ties by Seattle, is in the top ten in the MLB in spending. This gets those teams what they want, which is the playoff money bonus. If the Wild Card had been expanded 10 years ago, then Boston and New York (the two biggest spending AL teams) would have both made the playoffs every single year except 2006. In three of the last four seasons, three teams from the five team AL East would have made the playoffs as Tampa Bay found a way to field a good team without paying their star players over $20 Million a year.

The actual results from this new system seem like they may be the opposite of what is intuitive, however. The goal of any baseball team is not simply to make the playoffs, but to win the World Series, and the second Wild Card should make this much harder for both Wild Card teams. Having a single play-in game should waste each team's ace and start the wear on their bullpen before the significant playoff series start. This means that the teams with the best record in each league (already the favorite) get another advantage when they play the Play-In winning Wild Card team. Since the Wild Card teams are obviously not as good as the division winners, they will struggle with this disadvantage more than their opponents would have.

This movement of the benefit towards the division winner, rather than the Wild Card, makes this new system fair. The way the divisions are made up (especially with the changes coming in 2013 to put 5 teams in each division), puts the emphasis on the division winner and with the extra Wild Card, is stays there. As far as the Indians go, the White Sox have proven that they needed to win the Division outright to make the playoffs this season and will likely have to in the future. This is fine with Cleveland as it means when they do make the playoffs, they will be in the strongest position to make it deep into the playoffs.

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Where We At? September 2012

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

This will be the last individual month power ranking for the Indians players, with just three games left in the season in October. The list has grown much this month, liberally using September call-ups, bringing the final total to 35 players instead of the usual 25. Because of this, there won't be stats or explanations for the bottom 10 players on the list, most of whom haven't played enough to really judge. Here is a link to last month's rankings for comparison, although as always I will include the change in place from last month in parenthesis next to their current rank.

1. Shin-Soo Choo Even (0)

0 HR: Choo's power seemed to disappear during the final month of the season as he had just 7 extra base hits, all of which were doubles. Of course the fact that he kept his batting average above .300 and his OBP above .400 make it easier to forgive his lowest slugging percent since his slow start in April. This could also be part of his changing role as he has been asked to become a lead-off hitter, instead of the middle of the order slugger he had been.

2. Carlos Santana Above (+3)

19 RBI: Santana lead all players in RBI in September and took over the season team lead as well. Santana has undoubtedly been the Indians best hitter since the All-Star break and continued strong through this last month.

3. Michael Brantley Even (+1)

.421 OBP: Brantley lead all hitters in OBP this month, hitting his way most of the way there with 20 hits in just a limited time due to injury. The one problem with Brantley this month is that almost all his hits were singles and he didn't steal any bases. In fact, of the 32 times he reached base, he only got to second on his own twice. One interesting note is that teams started paying attention to Brantley finally and he walked intentionally 9 times of his 12 walks.

4. Jason Kipnis Even (-2)

5 Doubles: After starting the season out slow collecting two baggers, Kipnis has knocked 14 since July, bringing him back up to respectability. Kipnis doesn't have amazing power, but he does have a line drive swing and good speed, so he should be a doubles machine.

5. Asdrubal Cabrera Above (-3)

.470 SLG: A grand slam on the last day of the month put a punctuation mark on a pretty good September for Cabrera. He played a lot more like the Asdrubal from 2011 than earlier in the season, raising his batting average to .274 with a .303 mark on the month.

6. Vinnie Pestano Even (0)

3.75 ERA: While this ERA might seem decent, it is absolutely unacceptable for Vinnie Pestano (his season ERA sits at 2.37). He ranked 8th this month among Indians relievers and has blown a save. Let's all over react. While this hasn't been his best month of the year, there is a reason he remains the top ranked pitcher on this list.

7. Zach McAllister Below (0)

.304 BAA: McAllister is another pitcher who has dropped off as of late, although his fall was much more significant than Pestanos. He had been the Indians most consistent pitcher prior to September, but seems to be showing signs of tiring from the longest workload of his career. This month he was the worst starter in the rotation not named Jeanmar.

8. Chris Perez Above (+1)

100% SV%: Perez is back on track and saved all six of his chances this month. This has put him among the top saves leaders in Indians history and he still has a chance to rise a little more up the list with three more games left.

9. Joe Smith Above (+1)

3 Runs Allowed: The Indians side-arming righty did it again, absolutely dominating out of the bullpen. He allowed those three runs in just under 12 innings while striking out 10.

10. Justin Masterson Below (0)

1 HRA: Masterson allowed just a single home run in the month of September, less than any pitcher with more than 11 innings pitched for the Tribe. This is just about the only good thing coming from his five starts in the month as he lost three games and was outpitched by three of the other four members of the rotation. Just because he didn't give up home runs, doesn't mean he didn't give up hits or runs. He allowed 31 hits (in addition to 13 walks) in just 28 innings.

11. Esmil Rogers Above (+1)

11 GP: Rogers has been made a serious part of the Bullpen Mafia, behind only Pestano and Smith in relief appearances, and has excelled. Rogers maintained an ERA under three and a WHIP under 1.00, all while keeping control, his biggest problem when he played for Colorado. Rogers has only walked four this month.

12. Travis Hafner Below (New)

4 Times on base: Since Hafner's return, he has only been on base four times. Twice after being hit by pitches, once on a walk and once he was safe on an error. He is hitless and homerless for the month, looking like a shell of his former self. It is disappointing to see his time with the Tribe end this way, but he does have approximately two more games left to try to get that elusive hit.

13. Casey Kotchman Below (-5)

0 Walks: In a month that saw the Indians have a game with 12 walks as a team and record over 100 total, Kotchman amazingly had none. With Kotchman certainly removed from the roster within the coming weeks, the biggest question here is why did he get to play in 24 games while Neal and LaPorta sat on the bench.

14. Lonnie Chisenhall Below (New)

2 HR: Lonnie surprised everyone by making it back to the big leagues at all this year after breaking his arm, but he has made an even bigger splash, hitting a couple home runs and knocking in seven in limited time.

15. Jack Hannahan Above (-1)

.447 OBP: Somehow Hannahan lead all Indians hitters in OBP. He has started to be phased out with Chisenhall getting the majority of the at bats at third, but has put together his best month of the year offensively. This may go to show what I have been saying all along, that Hannahan should be used in a limited reserve role and as a late inning defensive replacement.

16. Cody Allen Below (+1)

2.04 WHIP: This is the first time Allen has stumbled since being drafted last season. He has been horrendous this month (7 ER in 8.1 IP), but it shouldn't be anything to worry about. It is unlikely that Allen will make the team out of Spring Training next year anyway and this set back should only help motivate him as he moves on with his young career.

17. Ubaldo Jimenez Even (+1)

11 Walks: Jimenez's month was actually not that bad as he was hurt in his record (0-3) by seven unearned runs. He finally dropped his batting average against below .250 and his WHIP below 1.50, but control is still an issue. If he can get his walks under control, there is still a pretty good pitcher there under that wildness.

18. Jeanmar Gomez Below (-5)

18 Runs Allowed: Gomez gave up more runs than any other pitcher this month, which was quite a feat considering he pitched 12 less innings than Masterson (who also gave up 18). Gomez's season implosion is now complete as he has made his last start of the season. Jeanmar went from Spring Training surprise success to mediocre to the worst starter on the team in the span of a season. With the way he was unable to sustain as his innings pitched piled up, he seems to be a better fit as a long reliever than a starter at this point in his career.

19. Russ Canzler Above (New)

25 Hits: Canzler has been very consistant since his rise to the Majors, hitting in all but seven of the games he has played in. He has been given the most opportunity of the September call-ups and has jumped at his chance. He now sits as a favorite to make the team in 2013, possibly as a starting first baseman or left fielder depending on what other moves the Indians make.

20. Ezequiel Carrera Below (-4)

4 SB: Carrera has really shown his speed this month, going a perfect 4-4 in steal attempts. On the season he is now 8-9 when trying to steal. Carrera is the prototypical lead-off hitter/centerfielder and could possibly be used that way if the Indians keep the roster the way it is going into next year.

21. Tony Sipp Below (-5)

0 Holds: With a few young pitchers taking more prominent spots in the bullpen, especially Herrmann, Barnes and Rogers, Sipp has seen his innings drop, especially in pivotal situations. Sipp was only given a single chance at a hold this month and he blew the save.

22. Chris Seddon Above (+1)

7 Relief Appearances: Seddon has taken well to his unpredictable position of spot starter/long reliever and allowed just three runs this month in ten innings pitched, all in relief. Seddon has been asked to come in early in games when a starter has struggled and late in more normal relief appearances and has looked pretty good all around.

23. Brent Lillibridge Below (-4)

16 SO: Lillibridge struck out more often than any other Indians hitter at about once every 2.5 at bats. This could be a huge problem as he is not a high production hitter who can mask his strike outs with home runs. As an infrequently used utility player, Lilly time has to make the most out of every single at bat or his services will no longer be needed.

24. Frank Herrmann Above (New)

1.38 ERA: A regular in the great 2011 bullpen, Harvard Herrmann is back with a vengeance. His two runs allowed were the second fewest of any pitcher on the team (Barnes threw 7.2 innings allowing no runs) and he lead all pitchers in WHIP (0.62) and BAA (.156).

25. David Huff Above (New)

.250 BAA: Since his return to the Indians Huff has been nothing less than spectacular. He first pitched 2 games in relief, bailing out Gomez a couple times before ultimately taking his place in the rotation. He currently sits at 3-0 in five games with an ERA of 2.86 and 17 strike outs in 22 innings. Huff has one more start to make before the Indians decide if he is worth resigning for another attempt next year.

26. Lou Marson Below (-6)

27. Corey Kluber Below (-6)

28. Matt LaPorta Above (-3)

29. Jason Donald Below (-7)

30. Scott Barnes Above (New)

31. Cord Phelps Below (New)

32. Roberto Hernandez DNP (-8)

33. Vinny Rottino Below (New)

34. Thomas Neal Below (New)

35. Scott Maine Below (New)

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So long, Manny

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The Indians have finally fired manager Manny Acta after three seasons of under performing with a lineup filled with young talent. While the manager doesn't have a whole lot to do with the final result of each game, they do control small situations within each game and the day-to-day make-up of the lineup.

Over his time with the team, the vast majority of Manny Acta's decisions have been the right ones for the time, but his mistakes have been obvious. As a manager of pitchers, Acta was as good as he could have been given what he has. For most of this season he has used the pitchers he trusted in the bullpen in situations that needed a pitcher of trust and used those he had little confidence in in blow outs. The only complaint you can have against his handling of pitchers was that he refused to allow pitchers to throw a complete game, although the situation rarely occurred this season when a pitcher deserved the chance.

The biggest mistakes from Acta have been with his dealing with the players individually and the setting of the lineup. Since the Indians are very tight knit and close lipped from the manager level up, it is hard to tell how much of this was the fault of Acta, and how much had more to do with General Manager Chris Antonetti. Use of reserve players in the everyday lineup is something this site comments on frequently and maybe things will get better without Acta. Aaron Cunningham played in 72 games this year while batting .175 and Lou Marson has played in 67 so far, hitting just .219. Russ Canzler and Ezequiel Carrera are now showing that there were better options in the minor leagues all year, but Acta doesn't have direct control over roster moves. He did have the control of whether or not to play those players he did have as often as he did. He also had the right to petition Antonetti to bring in new players, but since the Indians rarely speak of in house business, we can never know exactly what he wanted.

One player who Acta mishandled was Lonnie Chisenhall. When a team has a player they are placing their hope for the future on, that player needs to play. Manny Ramirez didn't have to split time in right field with Wayne Kirby when he came up, he was given the starting role. When Victor Martinez first made it to the Majors he competed with Josh Bard for the starting catcher job, won the competition and then was the starter for the rest of his time with the Tribe. Chisenhall, a first round draft pick in 2008 has been held back for two seasons by Jack Hannahan, a AAAA journeyman with a decent glove. Chisenhall has outhit Hannahan since day one and has played sufficient defense, but was never given more than a platoon chance at third. During this same time, Jason Kipnis (a second round pick from 2009) was given the reigns at second and has played almost every single game there since he was first promoted. This seems like blatent favoritism by the manager. Neither player has been perfect defensively and they stand with career OPS within 0.13 points of each other (.713 for Chisenhall, .736 for Kipnis), but Kipnis has managed to get himself into 182 games over the past two years while Chisenhall has played in 103.

The final straw against Acta was that when the going got tough, he gave up. This quote of his summed up his feelings during the Indians terrible month of August:

“They do need to relax. There have never been 25 guys released [at once] in the history of the game. They should relax. If one guy is going to go, it’s going to be me, not them. So relax and play the game.”

Here's one place he was completely right, all 25 players were not released at once and he was the one guy who was going to go. Well...him and Shelley Duncan and Aaron Cunningham.

I will end with this quote from Paul Dolan from this article claiming that nobody was going to be fired this season. 

"We all have a lot of work to do, but their jobs aren't at stake."

Well what should he have said, "we won't be firing anybody today, but look out right before the last home stand"?

Good luck to Sandy Alomar, Jr., the newest (interim) manager of the Cleveland Indians. May your reign be long and prosperous.

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The Importance of Being Pronk

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The Indians face an important decision this offseason as Travis Hafner's contract runs out. The man once known as Pronk has not played at a prominent level since 2007 when he knocked in 100 runs with 24 home runs. In the five seasons since he has knocked in a total of 213 runs with 58 homers. Hafner signed his current contract prior to that 2007 season after his best season in 2006 when he lead the league in OPS and finished 8th in the MVP race. Based off the strength of that season and the two seasons prior he was given $13 million for each of the last two seasons (2011-2012) and an option for next season at the same price (he also has a buyout of $2.75 Million).

Before the Indians make this all important and seemingly simple decision, there is one peice of information they should look at:


W W/Pronk L W/Pronk Pronk % W Sans Pronk L Sans Pronk No Pronk %
2010 53 65 .449 16 28 .364
2011 47 47 .500 33 35 .485
2012 30 30 .500 20 28 .418

Here are a few numbers from the last three seasons when Hafner has been terrible compared to the beginning of his time with the Indians. Despite batting averages under .280 every year and never having more than 15 home runs in a season, the Indians have been significantly more successful with Hafner in the lineup. While variability in starting pitching has effected the win/loss record a lot more than the absence of Hafner, his bat has still been a significant part the Indians run scoring effort.


RPG Pronk RPG No Pronk
2010 4.08 3.82
2011 4.72 3.82
2012 4.10 4.35

In a stat more directly effected by Travis Hafner's place in the lineup, the next chart shows the Indians runs per game while he is the lineup and when he is not. Interestingly enough, this is the first season of the last three when the Indians scored more without the Pronk than with him.

The reasoning for the overall discrepancy in runs scored and wins is a subject that has been broached many times on Burning River. What most people don't think of is that when you remove a player from the lineup, the player who replaces him in the lineup is not necessarily the player who takes his position. What this means is that when Hafner was removed from his designated hitting duties, whether it was for injury or child birth, his position is usually taken by a starting position player like Shelley Duncan or Carlos Santana. This player would already be in the lineup with Hafner there, so his true replacement is the player who comes in for the new DH. In the case of Santana (the most used Indians DH after Hafner in 2012) this means that 100% of the time his replacement will be Lou Marson. I've already written multiple articles about this situation with Marson so I won't go into that any further suffice to say that it is replacing a hitter with a career .889 OPS with a .609 OPS. For the most part, when Duncan was used as DH, Johnny Damon was the replacement.

The point is not that the Indians should accept Hafner's option for 2013, they shouldn't. However, Manny Acta has already talked about using the DH spot for regular starting position players all season next year. This means every single game we will see a reserve playing. This would make the Indians essentially a National League club playing in the American League (or like a team managed by Eric Wedge..."your opening day starter in left field, Jose Hernandez...") at a significant disadvantage to all other American League teams. If the Indians don't plan on contending next season then it would be a great way to reduce payroll, but there is no reason for the Indians not to contend. This team was in first place in late June with major pieces missing from the roster. Lonnie Chisenhall and Carlos Carrasco are two huge parts that will return in 2012 while Jason Kipnis and Micheal Brantley are really coming into their own. Giving up before the season starts next year would be a disservice to the team, the fans and the city. Exactly the kind of thing that really gets Chris Perez raging.

What the Indians need to do is to sign a player for 2013 with the expressed intent of using him solely as a designated hitter. That player doesn't have to be an All-Star, just better than Marson and Jason Donald. Hafner is still an option if he is willing to renegotiate after he takes his $2.5 million buyout payoff. He has shown during his limited time during this season that he still has some of that forgotten power, but his tendency towards injury is too great a risk for the Indians to give him another chance. If the Indians are able to fill the hole at first base from within the system (possibly with Russ Canzler), they could put all their offseason spending into one power hitter to use as a DH. With the expiring contracts Hafner, Roberto Hernandez and Grady Sizemore, the Indians should have enough to spend about $15 million a year for a single batter. While the upcoming free agent class doesn't look tremendous, there are still a few players worth looking at in the Indians price range, like Nick Swisher, Melky Cabrera or even possibly Jim Thome if he decides he doesn't want to retire again. Indians brass shouldn't limit themselves to free agents though, as many teams have taken to the salary dump as of late. While normally the Indians would be the ones dumping salary, they have enough wiggle room going into next year to accept some other teams mistakes. One that the Indians really should look into is the contract of Alfonso Soriano of the Cubs. He is owed $18 million each of the next two seasons. If the Cubs were willing to take on at least $6 million of that, the Indians could definitely spare a few young pitching and middle infield prospects. Since this is pure speculation I won't go any further, but it needless to say that a player of his talent level would help the Indians immensely.

As this season comes to a close and we look more towards next season, there will be more on what the Indians strategies should be, but for now remember, if you want to be an American League team, you need a designated hitter.

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September Call-Ups & Minor League Results

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

With the Clippers season over in Columbus (a positive one at 75-69, but not good enough for the playoffs) the Indians are bringing up most of the rest of the players they will want to look at for the last month of the season. The new faces on the roster as of tomorrow will be Vinny Rottino, Cord Phelps, David Huff and Scott Maine. Rottino will be making his second appearance with the Indians after a short stint with the Tribe last month while Travis Hafner was on paternity leave. Phelps and Huff have both played with the Indians in past seasons but will be making their first appearances of 2012.

There are a few options for Huff, the most likely of which is that he will be placed in long relief. Other options include the Indians expanded to a six man rotation, but with eight starters on the team (Masterson, McAllister, Jimenez, Kluber, Gomez, Hernandez, Seddon and Huff) even a six man rotation seems small. It is possible that the Indians will keep the regular rotation of Masterson, McAllister, Jimenez and Kluber going while splitting starts among the rest of the options as well. Phelps will be another middle infield reserve, joining Jason Donald. This is another position that may get crowded as Lonnie Chisenhall is set to return any day now. The roster currently set at 33 with a maximum of seven more players allowed to be called up. 

Scott Maine pitched 21 games with the Cubs before the Indians picked him up off waivers. He has played with Chicago for three seasons throwing 40.2 innings in relief and accruing 42 strike outs with an ERA of 4.87. Maine's greatest talent is that he throws a baseball with his left hand, a talent in great demand in the Major Leagues, especially by a certain team that plays a little to the north of Cleveland. They must be so jealous of the Indians. With Tony Sipp and Scott Barnes already, Maine just adds to the excess.

The rest of this piece goes to congratulate those Cleveland Indians Minor League affiliates that did make their respective playoffs. The Akron Aeros won the Eastern League (AA) Western Division and will go on to face the second place Bowie Baysox (Baltimore) in the first round of the playoffs. The Aeros have won the Eastern League championship three times since 2003. Lonnie Chisenhall and Carlos Carrasco are expected to rehab with Akron during their playoff series.

The Carolina Mudcats finished 7.5 games out of a playoff spot in the Carolina League Southern Division (Advanced A) with a record of 31-39.

The Lake County Captains finished 40-30 in the Midwest League Eastern Division (A), good enough for second place and the first Wild Card berth. They will go on to play the division champion Bowling Green (KY) Hot Rods (Tampa Bay). Most of the stronger players from Mahoning Valley and the Arizona Summer League have been brought up to Lake County to help them in their playoff run.

At 30-43, the Mahoning Valley Scrappers (Short Season) were the most disappointing team in the Indians farm system. Despite having star 2012 draft picks Joseph Wendle, Tyler Naquin and Joe Sever and great pitching from Luis DeJesus (4-2, 2.02 ERA in 14 starts), they finished fifth out of the six teams in the New York-Penn League Pinckney Division (yes, a league that has teams from Ohio, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Maryland is called the New York-Penn League and yes they have silly divisional names). 

The Arizona Summer League Indians (Rookie) finished in second place with a record of 31-25. They were 3.5 games behind Los Angeles from winning the Arizona League Central Division (the Indians are the furthest team west of all the AZL teams, but are somehow lumped in the Central with the AZL Reds who play at the same facility). 

The Dominican Summer League Indians (Rookie) finished the season at 35-35 and ended in fifth place (of eight) in the Boca Chica Northwest Division.

Let's make sure to root on our two Ohio teams that did make the playoffs this year, the Akron Aeros and the Lake County Captains! Hurrah!

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Where We At? August 2012

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

With the worst months in Indians history over there wasn't much movement up or down the power rankings. Most of the movement that did occur happened because seven new players were added to the 25 man roster. 

1. Shin-Soo Choo Even (+1)

30 SO: This is the first time for Choo in the number one spot after being held by Hafner for a month, then Kipnis for the rest of the year. The move was mostly made due to Kipnis' slump, as Choo has been very consistant all season. If he had one problem, it's that he lead the team in strike outs, six more than the next worse batter. Chances are he has been pressing with the rest of the team struggling and swinging at more bad pitches than normal as of late, leading to the increased strike out count.

2. Asdrubal Cabrera Even (+2)

7 2B: Cabrera lead the team in doubles in August and has 30 on the season as well. While the Indians don't have a true power hitter, having three players with 30 or more doubles can make up for a lot of that. Even in a month as poorly played as this one, 7 Indians had at least four doubles, which would project out to 25 or so on the year. 

3. Jason Kipnis Below (-2)

.180 AVG: If Choo is pressing, Kipnis is already flat. He basically went from being the Indians best hitter, to their worse over the course of two months. He still hit two home runs and stole five bases, enough to keep him in third place along with his prior achievements, but things did not look good for Kipnis last month.

4. Michael Brantley Even (-1)

3 CS: For a speed outfielder, you never want to see a caught stealing ratio of 3 caught to every one good steal, but that is what Brantley put out last month. Ideally a manager is looking for a stolen base percentage of above 75% to have it actually help the team. Brantley obviously has the speed, but needs to work on finding the best situations to steal and improving his timing.

5. Carlos Santana Above (0)

16 RBI: While his batting average remains low, Santana's production numbers really jumped in the last month, hitting four home runs and knocking in a team high 16. While on a normal team this wouldn't be anything to get excited about, on the Indians it's off the charts fantastic.

6. Vinnie Pestano Below (0)

3 IR Scored: This month, Pestano has been a little worse than his stats will show. Prior to this month, Pestano had been almost perfect, stranding every single inherited runner on base except for one.  This month, he allowed 3 to score. He certainly has not been his usual perfect self, but he is still the best reliever and possibly the best overall pitcher on the team.

7. Zach McAllister Even (+1)

8 Unearned Runs: The Indians defense failed one of their best pitchers this month allowing 7 unearned runs in a single game and 8 overall. On the season he has allowed 18 unearned runs, almost a third of his total runs allowed. This disproportionate number is not all to blame on the Indians defense as he tended to give up a lot everytime the team made an error behind him that extended an inning. This could possibly be a mental block when thinks an inning should be over, but it isn't and he kind of gives up.

8. Casey Kotchman Below (-1)

4 Walks: There is a huge split in talent level that occurs between the first five position players and the sixth, Kotchman. While he is still a starter and has played as many games as anyone else, he comes in last for the month among starters in runs, doubles, triples, RBI and walks. A positive note for him is that he is also last in strike outs. Kotchman is here as a defensive firstbaseman, but with an offense this bad, the Indians can't afford the luxery of a player at a power position who can't hit.

9. Chris Perez Below (+1)

2 Losses: Every single starting pitcher lost three games this month, but Perez lead all relievers with two losses. This has to be one of Pure Rage's worst months ever as he blew two saves and held an ERA of 6.75 as well.

10. Joe Smith Below (+1)

1.61 WHIP: What happened to Joe Smith? Although he only gave up four runs this month, he walked seven and allowed eight hits in just 9.1 innings. This is nothing like the Smith we are used to who garners his success by keeping runners off base.

11. Justin Masterson Below (+2)

16 Walks: Masterson lead the team in walks during August, leading to a team high 1.77 WHIP. When he was good, he was the best pitcher of the month, winning three of the Indians five games won, but when he was terrible, he was bad enough to net an ERA of 6.75 for the month and record three losses.

12. Esmil Rogers Above (+9)

2.04 ERA: Rogers continues to impress as he again lead all relievers in appearances and this time strike outs as well. He also walked just two batters, best on the team by any pitcher with more than 2 innings pitched. If Rogers can keep his command, he could be a big part of the Bullpen Mafia for the next few seasons.

13. Jeanmar Gomez Even (New)

1 IP: Gomez threw just one inning in relief this month, but it was a perfect inning with a strike out. He will get another chance in the starting rotation in September as he is scheduled to start on the first.

14. Jack Hannahan Below (+2)

1 RBI: Jack must have been really excited when he knocked in that run this month. I know it looks like he has moved up the rankings because he is two places higher than last month, but he has actually moved down. Three players ranked above him last month are no longer on the list and the one directly below has been removed as well. This means he actually fell one place.

15. Ezequiel Carrera Above (New)

11 Runs: Even though he didn't start every game, and was in fact used as a late inning defensive replacement when first called up, Carrera has still managed to score the second most runs on the team in August. If there was a Indians Heart and Hustle award for each half of the season (and I believe there is), Kipnis deserved it in the first half and Carrera deserves it for the second.

16. Tony Sipp Above (+7)

11 Base Runners Allowed: Sipp pitched just 11.1 innings this month, meaning he allowed less than a single base runner an inning. This is superb and is an outstanding effort for any pitcher not named Addie Joss.

17. Cody Allen Above (+7)

12 Games: While Allen did give up his first runs of his career (it was bound to happen at some point), he proved that he is not a fluke by throwing in 12 games this month and maintaining an ERA at 2.51. The 2011 draft pick has truly been a surprise and one of the few good ones the Indians have had this year.

18. Ubaldo Jimenez Below (-3)

37 K's: Ubaldo certainly has found his curveball, using it and his other breaking pitches to lead the team in strike outs. All he has to do now is allow less than 27 runs in about 30 innings and he could be a superstar again. The "stuff" is definitely there, he just needs to work on his command and his knowledge of American League hitters and he really could be something special.

19. Brent Lillibridge Even (+6)

3 Home runs: After not hitting a single home run for either of his two previous teams, Lillbridge has come to Cleveland and pounded out three in a month. Of course he batting .200 and only knocked in 6, so let's not get too excited.

20. Lou Marson Below (0)

15 Games Played: Why did Lou Marson play 15 games this month? That's more than half the total games played by the Tribe. He could very literally be the worst offensive (and possibly defensive) player on the team. Keep him on the bench unless Carlos gets his knee taken out again.

21. Corey Kluber Below (New)

2.89 K/BB Ratio: Although Kluber has not been quite as good as the Indians would have liked, but one aspect he has impressed in is striking batters out. This month he has the best K/9 ratio outside of Jimenez on the strength of 26 total strike outs. As soon as he can put those strike outs closer together with less hits in between he will be all set.

22. Jason Donald Below (New)

2 Extra Base Hits: Surprisingly, both of Donald's extra base hits this month were home runs. Not surprisingly, he has had an OBP of .255 for the month. If the Indians were going to improve their offense by adding another bat, a way to make it even better would be to keep the player that the new hitter would replace and use him in the utility role while releasing Donald.

23. Chris Seddon Even (New)

6 Relief Appearances: Seddon is hard to judge this month as he pitched mostly in long relief, instead of starting as he had all year for Columbus. Even when he had a chance to join the starting rotation again with Hernandez's injury, Manny Acta has decided to go with Gomez, who struggled during his recent stint in AAA.

24. Roberto Hernandez Below (New)

4 Home Runs Allowed: Sadly, neither Hernandez's 7.53 ERA nor his .304 BAA are the worst on the team for the month, but his four home runs in 14.1 innings pitched is by far the worst. In his last start Roberto was removed due to a sprained ankle early in the game, yet he still managed to allow a homer in that start as well. 

25. Matt LaPorta Below (New)

1 Hit: LaPorta is not doing a very good job of taking advantage of what should be his final Indians try out. So far he has had 12 at bats and he has a single hit along with five strike outs. If he keeps this up for about another week, the Indians can end this experiment before the year is out and give his playing time to Russ Canzler.

 


 

No longer with us (July ranking in parenthesis):

Johnny Damon Below (17)

Jeremy Accardo Below (22)

Vinny Rottino Below (DNP)

Jose Lopez Even (12)

Travis Hafner Above (9)

Josh Tomlin Below (19)

Frank Herrmann Even (DNP)

Shelley Duncan Below (14)

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