2013 Indians Schedule Quirks

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

2013 is going to be the first season in the history of professional baseball when there are an odd number of teams in each league, making it the first season with interleague play all year. This has lead to a few peculiarities in the Indians schedule this year that make it a little different than the norm.

  • Instead of the regular three game series, the first of the interleague series will take place at the end of April (4/30) in Cleveland against the Philadelphia Phillies. It will consist of two, two game series concluding in Philadelphia later in the month (5/14).
  • Instead of playing the normal six games against Cincinatti, the Indians will play consecutive road and home series against the Reds (and new centerfielder Shin-Soo Choo) from 5/27-30. This is the first time in my memory that the Indians have played a team on the road, then immediately played them at home. The Battle for Ohio will be played in just four games in 2013.
  • Other NL opponents include three game series against the Nationals (6/14-16), Marlins (8/2-4), Braves (8/27-29) and Mets (9/6-8).
  • Because of the new scheduling, the Indians will be playing many more four (and two) game series than normal. They have 12 four game series scheduled along with four 6 game series. There were 8 four game series in 2012 and no scheduled two game series. This will make it a lot harder to judge teams by their series win/loss record as there should be a lot more series ties.
  • The Indians will be playing against the Houston Astros as an American League team for the first time ever  on 4/19.
  • The All-Star break will be four games for the Tribe this year, spanning from 7/15-18. It should be a good vacation for almost every player as the Indians attempt to trade away every player who ever had a chance at playing in the contest.
  • The Tribe won't play the Angels and their new outfielder Josh Hamilton until 8/9, making them the last American League team for the Indians to play their first game against.
  • There will only be 14 total games against the Red Sox and Yankees, including just seven home games that will all be over before the end of April. These are two of the best selling series for the Indians, so it will be interesting to see if people will show up during the normally cold month of April to see the AL East teams. Last season the Indians averaged just over 11,000 fans per game in April excluding Opening Day, partially because there were no high profile games.
  • The season closes out in the cold open air of Minnesota, in what could be a very depressing four game bout if neither team makes any more improvements before the season starts.
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The Proper Use of Utility Infielders

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

If you are a regular reader of Burning River Baseball, you may come to feel that I hate all utility players and think to yourself, "why does he hate them, it's their job and somebody has to do it." Well, I don't hate utility players, just their improper use.

In general, of the 25 spots in a baseball roster, twelve are pitchers, nine are the starting lineup and another is the back-up catcher (another subject which I have discussed ad nauseam). This leaves three open places for what is typically, a reserve outfielder, middle infielder and corner infielder. Some teams choose to distribute these spots differently based on the unique talents of their reserves, but this is the general idea. Among those three reserve players the team needs to cover a few points.

First, every starter on the team must have a back-up in case they get hurt or tired. This back-up can be another starter as long as that starter has a back-up on the bench. Also, between the three players available there should always be a pinch runner and a pinch hitter (on past Indians teams, a right handed pinch hitter) for late inning duties. The back-up catcher shouldn't be considered in any of this as if the catcher gets injured there is usually no other option.

As most teams cannot afford to field a roster of 25 starting caliber players, utility players are usually a significant drop off from the regular on the field talent. This means the role is taken by one of three types of players, old players who used to be good, players in their prime that will never be good and young players who are still unknown. As with any player, the cost increases with age as they will no longer play for the league minimum and are less flexible as far as minor league options are concerned.

It is my opinion that any team that is not a billion dollar organization should use young players for the majority of their utility positions. This may seem not that extreme of a statement, but the Indians have been overpaying for aging veterans and never-will-be's longer than I can remember. Most recently Jack Hannahan was paid over $1M to make 18 errors at third base in 2012 as a defense-first minded third baseman while Lonnie Chisenhall sat in AAA. While Hannahan was not technically a utility player in 2012, he was originally signed as one and his back-up, Jose Lopez, was even worse. If Chisenhall had at least been used as utility corner infielder at the beginning of 2012, he could have worked on his defense behind the master (.949 fielding percent Jack Hannahan) and the Indians could have saved the entire $800,000 paid to Lopez (because they still had to pay Chisenahall anyway). Using Chisenhall as a utility player all season would have given the Indians their back-up at third, short and first (through Hannahan) as well as an extra pinch hitter.

The main purpose behind this line of thinking is the money saved. Reserve players only play a few games a year each and are not that important to the ultimate fate of a team. They are also usually replacement level players. Since this is the case, there is no reason not to use replacement players from within your own system. Another benefit of using younger players is speed. Using the example already mentioned, while Chisenhall is no speed demon, he is faster than Lopez, but here a different example suits better. 

Shelley Duncan was the primary starter in left field in 2012, leaving Johnny Damon as the utility outfielder. The Indians have done this type of thing over and over again in recent years, signing aging outfielders like Austin Kearns (the second time), David Delucci and Jason Michaels. In every case, a future Indian has lost playing time when he almost certainly would have produced more at a smaller cost. With Michaels it was Ben Francisco; Delucci, Franklin Gutierrez while Kearns (and Damon) kept back Ezequiel Carrera. All three of the outfielders held back were better fielders and base runners than their replacements and all were pushed to the sidelines for some unknown reason. Two of the three were even traded away as throw-ins during mega deals because there was "no room" for them on the roster. The Phillies and Mariners obviously saw their value even if the Indians couldn't. 

There are hundreds of examples over the years where the Indians would have been better served by using a younger player as a utility player instead of a veteran, but there is no point in listing them all. The whole argument boils down to the decrease in cost to the team in payroll and the increase in major league playing time of the developing player. If the Indians did follow this system, they should give each young player a two year maximum at the utility position. After this time a decision would have to be made. There are exactly three possible solutions, two of which could have great benefit to the team.

First, they could trade the young utility player. This has been the Athletics operating mode for the past decade, taking undervalued players, giving them enough playing time to look good and selling them high to other teams. One of the few times the Indians did this right was when they traded Kelly Shoppach to the Rays for top pitching prospect Mitch Talbot. Shoppach had been a young reserve for a few years, got enough starting time to impress and was sent away for another teams top pitching prospect when the Indians found a better option.

Second, promote the utility player. When something really special comes along (like Chisenhall) he should be moved into the starting role as soon as possible. When this is done, the team still has control of the original player and can use him as a trade piece to other teams before losing him. The Indians did a terrible job of this during 2012 as they held on to Hannahan during the regular season, even after Chisenhall was made starter. Once the season was over he was released and the Reds signed him for $4M. If they were willing to pay that much for him, they certainly would have been willing to trade something for him earlier in the year.

Finally, the utility player can be released. If a player has been around, playing in 60 or more games a year for multiple seasons and hasn't proven himself, he probably never will. If this is the case, give up on the player and release him, giving a different young player a chance. This is what the Indians should have done with Matt LaPorta years ago. LaPorta has been used as a reserve DH/1B the past few seasons when it was made obvious his ceiling is much lower than previously thought. If there is no trade market for the player, then just release them. This is not only best for the team as it frees up a roster spot and gives another young player a chance, but it is best for the player being released as well as he is free to find a job somewhere else whether it be with another team or Taco Bell.

So, there you have it. I don't hate utility players for being utility players. I just dislike it when the Indians waste money, then complain they don't have any and when they sit on tremendous talent in the minor leagues and just let it waste away (Brad Mills who? Remember Brad Snyder? Nick Weglarz is still in Akron at age 25).

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Something for Nothing

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

A week after dropping Jeanmar Gomez from the 40 man roster the Indians have traded him to the Pittsburgh Pirates for outfielder Quincy Latimore. Not only does this exponentially increase the amount of Quincy's in the Indians farm system, but it allowed them to gain some advantage from losing Gomez. This is the ideal way to lose a player. Gomez has had a few years to earn his place on the team and despite showing some signs of greatness (especially his AA perfect game and his first few starts in 2012), in the end it was decided that he will not be part of the future of the franchise.

The Indians have already lost the rights to quite a few players this offseason (including Russ Canzler twice) and this is the first time they got anything in return. Latimore looks to be a talented young player, poised to make his AAA debut in 2013. He has 50 steals already in his six seasons and has averaged more than 70 RBI per season since making it to single A. He has spent most of his time in left field, but has played a considerable amount in center as well and will do a lot to replenish the extremely depleted Indians minor league outfield depth.

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The Russ Canzler Roller Coaster Ride

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

It happens at least once every off-season. Players become names on a piece of paper, far removed from the human beings and are thrown into the wind, just waiting to see where they will land. This year's 40 man roster trash is Russ Canzler. A victim of Major League Baseball's minor league option rules, Canzler has bounced back and forth between American League teams who think they might want him, then decide they'd rather have someone else.

Canzler was a late round draft pick (30th) in the 2004 draft by the Chicago Cubs and moved through their minor league system over the next seven seasons. He proved to be incredibly productive for a 30th round pick, especially his 2010 AA season for the Tennessee Smokies when he hit 21 home runs and knocked in 66. The Cubs disagreed and released Canzler at the end of his contract.

His first real chance came with Tampa the next year, when he won the International League MVP in his first year in AAA. He was a September call-up at the end of that year and played in five games for the Rays. At the end of the year, he didn't fit on the Rays 40 man roster and he came to Cleveland for the first time. He spent another year in AAA and was actually used as a September call-up in 2012, playing in 26 games for the Tribe. In fact, he played so well he looked to be a strong contender for the first baseman's job in 2013. With the signing of Mark Reynolds, the Indians decided they didn't have any more use for him, so they removed him from the roster.

The Blue Jays took advantage, thinking they found a diamond in the rough and brought Canzler into the fold. A quick change of mind brought Canzler back to Cleveland when the Jays signed another player and the Indians released Jeanmar Gomez. This strange decision by the Indians to bring Canzler back after already admitting they didn't want him made little sense as they had two more roster moves to make within the next week after adding Nick Swisher and Brett Myers. 

As the low man on the totem pole, Canzler was gone again (although he made it through the Swisher signing). Russ Canzler is currently a member of the New York Yankees 40 man roster, but who knows how long he will stay there. If the Yankees decide they have no use for a 30 round draft pick that has bounced around the Majors, he could easily be somewhere else by next week. The last three moves have occured during the last two weeks, giving him a tour of North East.

The problem with all this is that he is being treated as a rounding error without any consideration to him as a human being. His talent level hasn't changed in the past two weeks. The Indians depth at first base hasn't changed. So why did they bring him back into the fold when they had to have known they were going to release him again? The same is true of the Blue Jays. What could possibly have changed within their organization within that week that made a player they were interested in become disposable?

Canzler is a talented baseball player that has beaten the odds to make it as far as he has, but, as a borderline Major Leaguer is now being treated like dirt. At some point Canzler will find his fit, whether it is with the Yankees or elsewhere. Hopefully, for his sake, he will find it before he becomes a waiver wire frequent flier.

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Tribe Signs Brett Myers

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The Cleveland Indians signed veteran right hander Brett Myers to a one year, $7M deal today with a club option for 2014. They also announced that he will be added to the starting rotation, a surprise move considering the Indians rotation had already looked set and Myers spent all of 2012 in the bullpen. This move is disappointing in that it will mean Trevor Bauer will be starting 2013 in AAA with the rest of the rotation made of Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Carlos Carrasco and Zach McAllister. It is understandable that the Indians want to be careful with their prize that cost them a year of Shin-Soo Choo, but it certainly seems Bauer is ready for the Major Leagues.

Myers has been a very durable pitcher over his career and has the added benefit of being versatile, switching from starting to the bullpen when need be. After four slightly above average seasons as a starter with Philadelphia to start his career, he easily moved into the closers role in 2007 and saved 21 games. After that one season, he spent the next four in the rotations of Philadelphia and Houston, but was back in the pen for 2012. Myers is 32 and should be a decent improvement over Derek Lowe as the Indians new aging starter. 

The best thing about this signing is the added depth. Last season when a few pitchers were injured and everyone struggled, the Indians ran out of options, going as low as to start David Huff in multiple games. Having Myers will allow the Indians to spare Jeanmar Gomez, Corey Kluber and Bauer so they can be used as replacements if/when Jiminez has a repeat of last season or when the next hurler needs Tommy John surgery.

The Indians will need to make a 40 man roster move to add Myers to the team after his physical. Likely candidates are Huff, Thomas Neal  or Lou Marson (wishful thinking).

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What to Expect from Swisher

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The signing is complete and there is no looking back now, Nick Swisher is an Indian and will be one through 2016 (possibly 2017). At this point everyone knows that he will be making $56M over those first four seasons with an option for the fifth. What we don't know is what he will produce.

The first thing to discuss is Swisher's age. He is going to be 32 in 2013 and playing in his tenth professional season. He has been incredibly durable over that time, averaging more than 150 games since 2006. He has produced at a pretty even level throughout that time, but did have a notable peak in 2009 and 2010 (age 28 and 29 seasons). It is likely that he will continue to slow as he ages, with his numbers dropping all over the board. Don't expect more than 20 home runs from Swisher again or a batting average over .275.

The second thing to look at is the Yankee effect. Simply by being on the Yankees, playing with that short right field and batting before or after some of the greatest hitters in baseball history can do a lot to help your stats. This is one of the reasons players can't be evaluated using regular statistics as these numbers won't correlate to other teams. 

Since 2008 (the year before the Yankees bought a World Series), the Yankees have had five starting players leave the team and go on to play elsewhere. These players, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera and Hideki Matsui, all had significant trends in their numbers after leaving New York. While most of these players were older than Swisher and past their prime when they left, the fact that Cabrera is included and has the same trends shows that it isn't simply a matter of age.

Averaging together each players three final years with the Yankees and first three years away from New York, it is easy to see the difference. On an average, each player lost 22 RBI and 22 runs per season, the most important stats to note, because they have the smallest basis in actual talent. The extra base hits that have lowered have to do with the aging players and the park factors more than the actual lineup around them. 

The most important individual player to look at is Melky Cabrera, because he is the exception where he actually improved as a hitter after leaving the Yankees. He has since played with Atlanta and Kansas City, most recently won a batting title (unofficially) with the Giants. The best seasons to compare are Cabrera's second full season in 2007 and his 2011 year with the Royals. Each year he played around 150 games, but in 2011 he hit ten more home runs and batted over .300 for the first time. Despite these amazing improvements he only knocked in 14 more runs (making him the only player to actually average more RBI after leaving the Yankees than before). 

The Yankees buy players, use them up and throw them away. It has been their team strategy for more than a decade and looks only to be increasing in severity. They want to win the World Series in 2013, just like they do every year and if they thought Swisher could have helped them, they could have afforded to resign him. As a 30+ year old outfielder, Swisher's numbers will more likely resemble Abreu and Damon rather than Cabrera. It's too late to do anything, but play him, but everyone should temper their excitement now, or risk wanting the home town kid's head when next summer comes around. The combination of age and leaving the Yankees look to smack Swisher back to reality, so expect numbers closer to 20 home runs, 70 RBI and 50 runs scored. These are still good numbers compared to the average Indian in 2012, but simply don't seem worth more than $56 million.

Oh, yeah. Merry Swishmas.

Here are the numbers for those who want to check my math:

Abreu G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG   Cabrera G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG
2006 156 548 98 163 41 15 107 .297 .424 .462   2007 150 545 66 149 24 8 73 .273 .327 .391
2007 158 605 123 171 40 16 101 .283 .369 .445   2008 129 414 42 103 12 8 37 .249 .301 .341
2008 156 609 100 180 39 20 100 .296 .371 .471   2009 154 485 66 133 28 13 68 .274 .336 .416
Y-AVG 157 587 107 171 40 17 103 .292 .388 .459   Y-AVG 144 481 58 128 21 10 59 .267 .321 .385
2009 162 563 96 165 29 15 103 .293 .390 .435   2010 147 458 50 117 27 4 42 .255 .317 .354
2010 165 573 88 146 41 20 78 .255 .352 .435   2011 155 658 102 201 44 18 87 .305 .339 .470
2011 142 502 54 127 30 8 60 .253 .353 .365   2012 113 459 84 159 25 11 60 .346 .390 .516
O-AVG 156 546 79 146 33 14 80 .267 .365 .413   O-AVG 138 525 79 159 32 11 63 .303 .349 .450
                                             
Giambi G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG   Matsui G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG
2006 139 446 92 113 25 37 113 .253 .413 .558   2007 143 547 100 156 28 25 103 .183 .367 .488
2007 83 254 31 60 8 14 39 .236 .356 .433   2008 93 337 43 99 17 9 45 .128 .370 .424
2008 145 458 68 113 19 32 96 .247 .373 .502   2009 142 456 62 125 21 28 90 .136 .367 .509
Y-AVG 122 386 64 95 17 28 83 .247 .381 .509   Y-AVG 126 447 68 127 22 21 79 .284 .368 .479
2009 102 293 43 59 14 13 51 .201 .343 .382   2010 145 482 55 132 24 21 84 .114 .361 .459
2010 87 176 17 43 9 6 35 .244 .378 .398   2011 141 517 58 130 28 12 72 .112 .321 .375
2011 64 131 20 34 6 13 32 .260 .355 .603   2012 34 95 7 14 1 2 7 .074 .214 .221
O-AVG 84 200 27 45 10 11 39 .227 .359 .435   O-AVG 107 365 40 92 18 12 54 .252 .299 .399
                                             
Damon G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG   Total G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OBP SLG
2007 141 533 93 144 27 12 63 .270 .351 .396   Y-AVG 138 489 79 135 26 19 79 .277 .364 .454
2008 143 555 95 168 27 17 71 .303 .375 .461   O-AVG 121 416 57 111 23 11 57 .268 .338 .418
2009 143 550 107 155 36 24 82 .282 .365 .489                        
Y-AVG 142 546 98 156 30 18 72 .285 .364 .449   Y-AVG Three Year Average With Yankees  
2010 145 539 81 146 36 8 51 .271 .355 .401   O-AVG Three Year Average With Other Team  
2011 150 582 79 152 29 16 73 .261 .326 .418                        
2012 64 207 25 46 6 4 19 .222 .281 .329                        
O-AVG 120 443 62 115 24 9 48 .259 .321 .397                        

 

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Why Releasing Russ Canzler Was a Mistake: But a Small One

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Russ Canzler seemed like a great pick-up in 2012. The Indians didn't have a starting first baseman and Canzler had just came off a season when he won International League player of the year. Canzler was just the kind of young player the Indians wanted to build the team around and looked to be under team control for a few years. Then in the following weeks the Indians signed Casey Kotchman and Jose Lopez, pushing Canzler back to AAA.

The Indians were in a similar situation going into 2013, but this time Canzler had just played a few games as a September call-up and impressed, totaling 26 games at four different positions over the last month. He batted .269 with three home runs and 11 RBI, impressive numbers compared to the rest of the team. This time, the Indians filled their hole at first base with Mark Reynolds, leaving Canzler on the outside again as he was dropped from the 40 man roster and released (and subsequently picked up by the Blue Jays). 

The problem with this is that there are still holes remaining on the roster that Canzler could have filled. Right field and designated hitter have no prospective players at this point and Canzler could have played either. There is also an opening for a corner utility infielder following the departure of Jack Hannahan, another role Canzler would have fit in perfectly. This would have been an ideal place for Canzler as he could play either corner outfield spot or first base on any day. He could even play third base if needed since he did so in the minors from time to time.

Instead of Canzler, the Indians decided to hold on to a few players that will almost certainly not be on the roster at the start of next season. David Huff is the first as he is out of options and the Indians rotation is completely full (Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach McAllister and Trevor Bauer) with extra to spare (Jeanmar Gomez and Corey Kluber). There is no way that Huff will pass enough of these pitchers on the depth chart during Spring Training to make the team, so he may as well be released now.

Lou Marson is another player there seems to be little reason to keep around. He has proven over the past three seasons that he has no desirable characteristics and the Indians traded a decent relief pitcher to get his replacement, Yan Gomes, on the team, so it would seem they think so as well. One option here would be to carry three catchers however, using Carlos Santana or Gomes as part time DH or first baseman.

Finally, there are a couple of players that seem close to the same value as Canzler in Thomas Neal and Rule 5 pick Chris McGuiness. Both players need to make the 25 man roster in 2013 or will be lost (Neal to waivers, McGuiness back to Texas). Both are secondary options for right field and at DH just like Canzler. The difference is that Canzler has more experience at the Major League level and can play multiple positions.

The Indians obviously believe that Canzler was the lesser of these three players, but I have to disagree. He has already proven at the major league level that he can contribute, something Neal and McGuiness (highest level was AA in 2012) have yet to do. To keep McGuiness, he will have to bypass AAA entirely, something most players are unable to do successfully. It would have been a much less risky proposition to simply keep Canzler and drop Neal, still taking a chance on McGuiness, or to release Huff and let the three of them battle it out in Spring Training.

This isn't a huge deal, as Canzler doesn't look to be a future Hall of Famer, but the Indians are not at a point right now where they can waste talent of his level. In fact the upside on McGuiness is almost certainly higher than Canzler's, but with that higher chance of reward is a higher risk as well.

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Swishalicious: The Nick Swisher Debacle

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

There have been rumors going around for weeks now that the Cleveland Indians are interested in acquiring the services of former Yankee outfielder Nick Swisher. The latest rumors say that Swisher has visited Cleveland and met with Chris Antonetti and was offered a deal worth more than $50 million for the next four seasons. After years of claiming poverty it is inexplicable where the Indians are coming up with this kind of money for a very average outfielder that has already passed his prime. When offering amounts of this level, what the team really has to focus on in how many actual extra wins a player will provide for the money offered. In this case, the Indians have a few true replacement level players available to play right field (including Ezequiel Carrera and until yesterday, Russ Canzler), so judging Swisher against a replacement level player is fair. Any replacement level player used by the Indians would likely be paid league minimum for 2013 in order to provide a fair comparison.

We rarely discuss WAR (wins above replacement) on this site, but in this situation, it is the most applicable stat there is. Since joining the Yankees in 2009, Swisher has averaged 2.5 wins above replacement each season (the best season in his career was 4.1 during his age 26 season in Oakland). As Swisher gets older and further away from the numbers of his prime seasons, we can expect his value to decrease even more. Assuming the production Swisher gave to the Yankees, the Indians would be paying Swisher almost $5M for each win above replacement. Assuming Carrera (.5 WAR in 2012) is the replacement right fielder, he would be paid about $1M for each extra win. 

The fact is that a win is a win, however much you pay for it. While most of the moves the Indians have made this year have been great (especially the Esmil Rodgers and Trevor Bauer trades), this is going too far. A small free agent market and pressure from the fans are forcing the Indians to make the same mistakes they make year after year. Every season the Indians make mistakes in the free agent market, over paying for players they don't need, but giving $50 million to Nick Swisher could be the biggest mistake in team history. Travis Hafner barely made as much per season with his extension after he hit 42 home runs in a single season and Swisher hasn't hit more than 30 since 2006. This contract would saddle the Tribe with an unnecessary contract for the next four seasons, crippling their ability to resign players and making Swisher impossible to trade in two years when his talent diminishes to the level it almost surely will.

It isn't too late. The Indians need to retract their offer to Swisher and move to acquire another outfielder through trade or look internally for another option. They are out of their depth offering such a gigantic contract to such a mediocre player. Swisher is not the answer on his own to bringing the Indians back to the World Series, but if they sign him to that contract, he will be the only player they will be able to add. It was bad enough the Indians had to trade Shin-Soo Choo because they couldn't afford to resign him. It will be worse when they can't sign Jason Kipnis to a long-term deal because they are still saddled with a terrible contract with Nick Swisher.

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And They All Fall Down: Choo to Cincinnati

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The dominoes in the Indians, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Reds love triangle (square) finally fell tonight with everybody getting a little something they wanted. First, the deal itself:

To Cleveland:

From Arizona: Trevor Bauer, Matt Albers and Bryan Shaw

From Cincinnati: Drew Stubbs

To Arizona:

From Cleveland: Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson

From Cincinnati: Didi Gregorious

To Cincinnati:

From Cleveland: Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald (plus cash)

The Fallout: The Indians essentially traded Choo for Bauer and Stubbs, with the other players involved just to even things out a bit. The Indians really wanted Bauer and the Diamondbacks really wanted a short stop, that much was obvious from the Winter Meetings, despite the teams inability to work out a deal. For the Indians, trading Choo makes a lot more sense than trading Asdrubal Cabrera (who was in the original deal) as Cabrera is signed for an extra season and does not have Scott Boras as his agent. Cabrera is also younger and plays a higher demand position. So, for part one the Indians won by trading Choo and not Cabrera.

Stubbs is a player the Reds have been very high on for years now and has stolen 30 bases in three straight seasons. He also has a little power, hitting 14 or more home runs in each of his three full seasons (something Choo cannot say about his last three seasons). If the Reds truly want to use Choo in centerfield, the Indians definitely got the better of this part of the deal. Defensively, Choo has fallen off a ton in the past two seasons and will suffer strongly with a move to a more strenuous position. Stubbs will look to fit in as the Indians new starting center fielder (and possible lead-off hitter) with Michael Brantley moving back into left field. This leaves the Indians with a hole in the outfield, but it is a different one than before today.

The addition of Mike Aviles early in the offseason made Donald expendable and losing him almost makes the whole deal worthwhile in itself. Anderson is also a throwaway player who was recently acquired from the Red Sox during the tail end of the 2012 season. He was unlikely to ever play for the Indians, making the originaly trade seem pointless, but his addition to this trade inconsequential.

After the removal of Rafael Perez from the roster a week ago, Sipp became the most unpredictable part of the bullpen. To replace him, the Indians acquired two right handed relievers in Albers and Shaw. Both have seen recent success with Arizona and are still relatively young (arbitration eligible) pitchers. Of the two, Shaw looks to have the highest ceiling, though they will both likely be immediately added to the mix in the bullpen.

The real purpose of this trade from the Indians point of view was to shore up a very shaky looking starting rotation with the addition of Trevor Bauer. Bauer was a first round draft pick in 2011 and made his debut last season, pitching in four games. Last season he dominated the Pacific Coast League with a 2.85 ERA in 14 games before being promoted to the big league team. Bauer looks to be immediately added to the rotation, eliminating the doubt as to who the fifth starter will be. All-in-all, the Indians added four major league ready players at the cost of just three, one of whom is a glorified AAA utility man. 

One thing that could be lost in the shuffle is that with Choo gone, the Indians have now lost their top five tenured players already this offseason adding up to a total of 39 years with the team. This makes Cabrera the longest tenured Indian at six seasons. While this may not be an official rebuilding, the team that almost made it to the World Series in 2007 has been officially demolished.

Overall this trade looks good for the Indians, but only time will tell. If Choo continues to have injury problems, it will look like the Indians broke the bank. Bauer is the one that holds the results of this trade in his hands the way Matt LaPorta did with the C.C. Sabathia trade. If Bauer can play at a median starter level for the next three or four years, the deal will have been a moderate success. If he can become the ace the Indians need or even a number two, this could be one of the best trades in years. Unlike most trades the Indians make, no prospects came to Cleveland in the deal, so we will know within the next two years whether this was a good move or not.

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Indians Sign Mark Reynolds

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

 

The Cleveland Indians filled one of their three gaping offensive holes today by signing former Oriole and Diamondback Mark Reynolds. Reynolds is known for two things, striking out and hitting home runs (in that order). Four of the past five seasons he has lead his league in strike outs while hitting 23 or more home runs each season. Most importantly for the Indians, Reynolds has had no significant injury problems over his career, playing in 135 games or more each season since his rookie year when he played 111. He will make $6M for 2013 with another $1.5M in incentives, a significant decrease from what the Indians would have had to pay Travis Hafner had they accepted his option. Reynolds looks to be about the same quality of player as Hafner, but more durable, younger and able to play in the field.

Reynolds ability to play first base brings to mind a few more questions. Will the Indians use him primarily at first or DH? If they are going to use hit as designated hitter, will they still pursue Kevin Youkilis who has already been offered a reported deal worth $18M over two years? Defensively as a first baseman, Reynolds is at least serviceable and the Indians currently have no other Major League options available. Without another signing, there would be little reason to regularly DH Reynolds unless Yan Gomes turns out to be more than a back-up catcher. If this is the case, Carlos Santana could be used at first or DH while Reynolds played the opposite. Of course all experiments undertaken by the Indians in this direction in recent years have been disastrous (Kelly Shoppach, Einar Diaz and Lou Marson).

If the Indians don't believe they can compete in 2013 the offensive signings should probably end here with internal options like Thomas Neal, Russ Canzler and newcomer Chris McGuiness given shots at the rest of the openings. However, if they would like to try to win the division or at least have more than 10,000 people show up per game, they need to make at least one more move. This could be a trade for someone like Alfonso Soriano or Justin Upton or stealing Youkilis away from the Yankees. A single extra offensive player would still allow the Indians to develop young talent like Lonnie Chisenhall at the Major League level while attempting to compete. Even with the $6M added for Reynolds, the Indians are still below last years salary after dumping Hafner, Roberto Hernandez, Grady Sizemore and Rafael Perez, so there should be some room to take on more salary.

Overall this move was a solid, financially sound move by the Indians, picking up a player who has been underrated for years due to his propensity to strike out, while still saving enough money to improve the team some more. If nothing else, there is now a player on the Indians roster who hit more than 20 home runs in 2012.

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