Pythagoras was a Greek mathematician who lived around 500 BC. He was also a huge baseball fan. He dedicated his entire life to devising a way to estimate how many games a team would win just by looking at their runs scored and runs allowed and his dream came to fruition with this equation:

Runs Scored²/(Runs Allowed²+Runs Scored²)

Some of that may not be true, but the Pythagorean winning percentage (named after the actual Pythagorean theory for finding the length of any side of a right triangle: A² + B² = C²) has turned out to be an extremely accurate indicator of how a team will perform. In the history of Cleveland baseball, only one season (1988) had a difference of more than .100 points (10%) between their actual winning percentage and their Pythagorean. On an average level it is usually much closer. In the 134 year history of Cleveland baseball (I include the Forest City's, Blues, Spiders and Infants as Cleveland baseball teams), 127 teams have had their Pythagorean winning percent within .050 (5%) of their actual winning percent. 45 seasons have been within .010 or a 1% margin of error. This is all just to show how accurate of a predictor it is.

Below this is a graph comparing the Indians actual winning percentage (in red) to their pythagorean winning percentage (in blue) for the 2012 season to this point.

The first thing you should notice is something surprising. The Indians have actually won more games than they should have given their run differential. There is a good reason for this that I will go over later. Now, look around game 49. This was a high point in the Indians season as far as record goes, but it was also the highest difference between the two percents. At this point the Indians were winning 9.5% more games than they deserved to according to our friend Pythagoras, a pace that has only been beaten once in Indians history (in 1988 when the Indians won 78 games, but should have won 53) for an entire season and has otherwise not even been approached in over 100 years of baseball. There will always be some random variation from the line (it would be more surprising if there wasn't any at all), but to have a difference of this magnitude is bordering on a miracle. It should have come as no surprise when the two percentages started creeping towards each other as baseball karma caught up with the Tribe. While two long losing streaks weren't necessarily expected, they also weren't unwarranted. 

You can see during the first losing streak (games 100-110) places where the winning percentage dropped (as it does after every loss), but the Pythagorean didn't. These were close games, the kind that the Pythagorean winning percent can't decipher. Since it is based completely off run differential, the smaller the differential the less effect it has on the projected winning percentage. This means unlike in actual winning percentage where each win counts the same as every other win, some games are worth more than others. The reason this works out is that over time the averages will always catch up to you. No team can score less runs than they allow and maintain a winning record long term. 

This Indians team does have a couple assets that make it likely to maintain at a level slightly above the projected one. The first is the extreme dichotomy of the starting pitching staff. Pythagoras acts like a pitching staff is one unit, going out night after night, but in reality, some pitchers are much better than others to a point that it really makes a difference. If Justin Masterson wins a close, low scoring game it counts as a win in actual winning percentage and a wash in Pythagorean, but if Ubaldo Jimenez loses a game by a margin of seven it counts as a giant loss for the Pythagorean record, but just a single loss in the real world. Because of this, teams with great offenses will often underperform compared to their Pythagorean (the last Indians championship season in 1948 ended the season 9 games under their projected win total) because they score a lot of runs that don't really matter. A team with a struggling offense should still win games when their star pitchers are performing, but will likely lose early if the other team scores much. This is exactly what has been happening with the Indians over the past month. In August the Indians have won five games, three of which were won by the staff ace Justin Masterson and a fourth by rookie phenom Zach McAllister, who has been the second best pitcher on the team all season. The Indians simply don't score enough runs to win when any other pitcher is throwing and both records reflect that.

The second part of staying ahead of Pythagorus is having a good bullpen. It is completely pointless to have great starting pitching (even two out of every five days) if your bullpen is just going to give it away. Again, the entire bullpen doesn't have to be great, just enough to get through the games the team is going to win anyway. Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez offer enough punch to get through at least three innings every time the two above average pitchers throw, so every single one of those games is still winnable despite the poor offense.

Looking at a couple of recent seasons for comparison, 2005 was memorable as one of the worst years for the Indians bullpen in recent years. Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Kevin Millwood and Jake Westbrook made up a dominant pitching staff, but were hurt by 15 blown saves (not all of which were the fault of Bob Wickman) and won five games less than they were projected to, a big enough difference to mean missing the playoffs. In 2007 the bullpen gelled behind great seasons from Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez who were so good it didn't matter that Joe Borowski was closing. That bullpen still has to be considered one of the best in team history and that team outpaced it's Pythagorean win total by four games. Mostly the same bullpen, but with a better closer in 2011 finished 5 games ahead.

This year the bullpen is just as good and the offense is even worse, leading to an impressive seven games over where they should be as of now. The Indians do have the talent to keep the difference at where it is now and finish the season with about 70 wins, but they will need to win every time Masterson or McAllister takes the mound. The only other thing they could do at this point to save the season from total embarrassment is to start scoring some runs. It would hurt their differential between Pythagorean and real life, but that is actually a good thing, because it would mean they would be earning their wins, rather than just sneaking a couple a week past the other teams. Management has to see this and understand that if the Indians don't score more runs, it doesn't matter how well they pitch. The number one priority in the offseason has to be picking up someone who already knows how to slug, not just another retreaded outfielder who can't find a home.

Pythagorean winning percentage is a good predictor of success, but a team shouldn't be trying to beat it, but instead should work with it. Just like in a single game, it really is as simple as the team that scores the most runs wins. 

Prior to the 2012 season, the Indians made a lot of signings. Looking for a new firstbaseman, particularly a right handed power bat, they signed light hitting lefty Casey Kotchman and Andy LaRoche. In an effort to shore up the starting rotation they traded for Derek Lowe and signed Kevin Slowey. To round out the bullpen they signed Dan Wheeler, Chris Seddon, Jeremy Accardo and Chris Ray. J.C. Romero was signed midseason for added depth. Looking for another utility infielder, the Tribe invited Christian Guzman, Gregorio Petit and Jose Lopez to camp and signed Russ Canzler. In search of a starting left fielder they picked up Felix Pie, Fred Lewis and Ryan Spilborghs. In mid season they signed Johnny Damon as a free agent since none of the other players worked out.

Where are these players now? Kotchman, Seddon and Lopez are still on the Major League team although Kotchman and Lopez have both underperformed and Seddon has only just joined the team (and as a starter, not the reliever he was signed to be). Slowey, Wheeler, Romero, Canzler and Petit are currently with AAA Columbus, most of whom haven't seen any time on the Indians this year. Wheeler did spend about a month with the team and was absolutely dreadful during his time in Cleveland.

Guzman was released on March 28th and retired. Lewis was released on April 2nd and went on to New York with the Mets. Pie was baked on April 4th (he has since been picked up by Atlanta. Now he's peach Pie). Spilborghs was sold to Texas on May 4th. On June 26th, the Indians released LaRoche (he was then signed by Boston). Ray was released on July 7th (then released by Oakland on July 26th). What do all these players have in common? They never got a sniff of the Major Leagues in 2012.

There is one last group of those mentioned above, the ones who played for the Indians for an extended amount of time, but no longer do so. This group consists of Lowe (released 8/2), Damon (8/4) and Accardo (8/5). This is what I call, taking out the trash. None of these players have done a single positive thing for the Tribe since May and they have all played below replacement level. The Indians have players in the minors better than all three of these old men, particularly those who were called up for them, Corey Kluber, Ezequiel Carrera and Seddon. These three have been a waste of time, money and talent for more than half a year, costing not just the Indians their payroll and the games they lost, but the minor league player's playing time. This wouldn't bother me if it was the first time, or an isolated incident, but this has happened before.

You may remember this list of players better or worse than those listed in the first paragraph: 

This is a fairly complete list of every free agent the Indians have signed since 2004 that has made the team and stayed for 3 or less years. It includes when they came, how and when they left, their OPS or ERA while on the team, how much money they stole from the Indians and the player(s) they took playing time away from. Here are a few notes about the listing:

• There were a couple of good signings by the Indians and these should be noted. Millwood lead the league in ERA in 2005 and was by far the Indians best pitcher. When it says a player didn't take playing time away from anyone it means that their replacement was worse than them or they played so little it didn't matter. Aaron Fultz was another good signing as relief pitchers tended to be the most needed position filled and the most successful. Breslow and Rincon were two other signings that didn't work out poorly. Paul Byrd was an innings eater for years that should be commended for his performance in the 2007 post season.
• Ed Mujica is listed next to Breslow, even though there is no question that Breslow was superior, then and now. However, Mujica did go on to close for Tampa Bay, meaning that one of the two teams misjudged him. 
• The OG next to Roberto Hernandez stands for original gangsta, so he would not be confused with the newly created Roberto Heredia Hernandez. This is the Roberto Hernandez that was an All-Star closer for the White Sox and Devil Rays before coming to the Tribe.
• In 2007 Borowski didn't take playing time from Betancourt, but he did take the closers role. Betancourt was by far the best reliever on that team, while Borowski wasn't in the top five, yet Borowski got almost every save opportunity while Betancourt set a team record for holds.
• The worst signings were outfielders. With an overload of minor league outfielders through the years mentioned including Coco Crisp, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez, Ben Francisco and later Trevor Crowe and Ezequiel Carrera, it is offensive that the Indians continued to sign below average players that cost the Indians more wins than they generated. This list includes Hollandsworth, Dellucci, Nixon, Kearns (twice), Buck and this season Johnny Damon. Special mention goes to Jason Michaels who is not listed because he was picked up in trade, but also stole more than his share of playing time from much more talented, faster and better defensive outfielders. The Indians believed they were so deep in outfielders that they continued to trade them away, even as they signed new ones. Gutierrez went on to star with the Mariners while Francisco won a World Series with Philadelphia. Crisp has also seen decent success with the Royals and A's and Crowe was recently signed by the Angels.
• A half a season of the reject from a terrible Tigers team, Jason Johnson, was worth not even looking at a first round draft pick before trading him. Jeremy Guthrie was kept out of the starting rotation in 2006 by the signing of Johnson and was then traded to Baltimore after just a single start for the Tribe. He went on to be the Orioles ace for the next five seasons.
• Two players are listed next to Chad Durbin's name, even though he only took one roster spot. When Durbin was signed, the Indians designated Laffey and traded him to the Mariners when he didn't clear waivers. Durbin was bad before the Indians signed him and they still gave up on the career of a left handed starting pitcher and a chance at seeing Frank Herrmann all season instead of moving him constantly between AAA and the pros. Durbin also cost the Indians some games as he was absolutely dreadful out of the bullpen and not usable during games that were decided by less than 5 runs.
• In 2011 with the future of the franchise (Kipnis and Chisenhall) ready for the majors, they decided to go with more expensive less talented veteran options. If Kipnis had played a full 2011, maybe he wouldn't be dealing with stamina issues in 2012. They compounded the mistake with Chisenhall this year by signing Jose Lopez. Instead of playing half a season before he broke his arm, he ended up playing less than a month.
• Most of the players were sold, traded or released mid season when their replacements finally broke through. This means the Indians paid them for a whole year, but only got half. The one exception is Kerry Wood, who had $8.4 million of his salary paid for by the Yankees after he was traded. Usually when a player is released midseason, the new team is only required to pay the minimum while the rest of the salary is covered by the original team.
• If the Indians had used minor league replacement level players instead of old men, most of whom never were very talented, they could have saved about $50 million in payroll over the last 8 years. That money could have been used to buy more midlevel players like Millwood (almost one a year), re-sign players like Choo or Cabrera to long term deals or to build another big windmill on top of the stadium. Whatever management found to be more important to creating a winning baseball team.

In general, starting players that sign for less than $5 million a year are being paid for their veteran status rather than their abilities. There is a threshold between there and about $12 million a year that include some very talented, but sometimes unappreciated players. This could include future free agents like B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Luke Scott and James Shields and would have including Carlos Pena last offseason. Maybe the Indians wouldn't be interested in any of these players, but they have been linked to all them in rumors and would be able to afford them if they stopped over paying for replacement level talent. The Indians could have had Scott for nothing if they had just avoided trading him for Jeriome Robertson in 2004, another player that would have been included on this list if only the Indians would have acquired him differently. The Indians need to immediately cease this inane obsession with signing veterans on their last legs and never-wills who have spent enough time in the majors to know what they truly are. Look to Choo, Hafner and Rafael Perez for that veteran leadership (they've all been around for a day or two and have played through playoff hunts and the playoffs themselves). Trust your draft picks to amount to what you projected them to be and put more faith in the minor leaguers you traded your stars for.

The moral of the story is, "Go big or stay home."

A month that saw the Indians struggle as a group also saw them struggle as individuals. Many stars had their worst month of the season although a few unexpected players did shine through. Players ranked in order of importance to team for the entirety of 2012 to this point. The rating given (above, even or below) is based on July's expectations only and only considers that month. (Change from last month's ranking is in parenthesis). Here's this month's list:

1. Jason Kipnis Below (0)

9 RBI: Even though Kipnis had by far his worst month of the season in July, he remains atop the leader boards for another month. He continues to lead the team in RBI (9 more than the next best) and steals (10 more) while remaining in second in home runs and triples behind by just one in each stat. His defense remains strong at a very difficult and important up the middle and even at his worst he is one of the most effective parts of the Indians offensive machine.

2. Shin-Soo Choo Above (+1)

8 Doubles: This is Choo's highest place so far on the Indians Player Power Rankings as he started very low, ranked 15th after April. Since then, Choo has improved every month, culminating in team high 8 doubles in July, giving him 32 on the season, second in the American League (Alex Gordon). This recent success has lead to rumors of an early departure from the team for Choo that were thankfully untrue. No true Indians fan would want to see him traded away in the prime of his career.

3. Michael Brantley Above (+3)

.326 AVG: Brantley was the only Indian with more than 50 at bats in July to hit over .300 and joins Cabrera's April and Choo's June being the only times an Indian has hit over .300 in a single month this year. Brantley had a great July, showing some power (3 home runs, 11 RBI in July, 1 HR, 35 RBI previously) and patience as he drew 12 walks. If there is one draw back to Brantley, it is that he is not being used to his fullest potential as he was stuck in the middle of the lineup when he should be batting in one of the top two positions as a table setter. This has kept his steal attempts to three this month with just two being successful.

4. Asdrubal Cabrera Below (0)

.307 SLG: I would list the players with a higher slugging percentage than the Indians shortstop, but it is easier to go the other way. Hannahan, Lopez, Marson and Lillibridge were the only players to hit with less power on the Tribe during July. None of those other players had any expectations coming into this month, but Cabrera did. He has also struggled defensively including a recent game where he made two errors in the same inning. Luckily for him, the Indians signed Kotchman to make him look good or things would be even worse for the All-Star.

5. Carlos Santana Above (+6)

.433 OBP: Not surprisingly, Santana lead all Indians in both OBP and walks again this month and continues to lead for the season with 61 walks. Santana is extremely patient and has a great eye, to the point that he could end up challenging Jim Thome for his walks record if he sticks around long enough. July was Santana's best month to date as he is finally sitting about where he should on these rankings. Although an injury slowed him down, he appears to be hitting his stride and should provide power from the cleanup spot for the rest of the season.

6. Vinnie Pestano Above (-1)

12.75 K/9: The Indians flame throwing set-up man outdid himself this month, striking out 17 in 12 innings and lowering his season ERA to 1.47. How did he manage to lower his already minuscule ERA? Pestano didn't allow a single runner to cross the plate during the month of July. There is simply no Indians pitcher on the roster comparable to Vinnie Pestano.

7. Casey Kotchman Even (+5)

11 Runs: Casey has improved much this season, going from a huge detractor of the Indians offense to becoming almost an asset. His 11 runs scored from the bottom of the lineup show that he is getting on base more when it matters and his team leading 12 RBI in July show that he can score from both sides. If Kotchman had played the whole season like this the Indians still would have been disappointed (.239 AVG in July, .227 in 2012), but they would have been a lot less disappointed.

8. Zach McAllister Above (+6)

9 Runs Allowed: The Indians newest best pitcher was amazingly able to keep an ERA of 2.56 through the month despite giving up 5 home runs by keeping his walks down (9), his strike outs up (31) and by having players make errors behind him leading to a team high 7 unearned runs in one month. McAllister has been by far the most consistent starting pitcher on the team during his time with the Tribe and is very deserving of the top spot held by a starter in this month's rankings.

9. Travis Hafner Below (New)

5:17 BB/K: At some point in time Pronk got turned around and started swinging early in the count and taking pitches late. This has lead to an inordinate amount of called looking strike outs and a very slim amount of walks and hits. Travis used to be the Indians best hitter as far as getting on base, but this month in particular he has been awful. This is his first month back after missing a month with injury and he has shown some power (team leading 4 home runs), but it hasn't amounted to much (6 RBI). If he continues to struggle he may begin to lose playing time to Duncan who has been much better of late.

10. Chris Perez Even (-3)

1 Blown Save: I know how much he hates it, but when Pure Rage only throws 9 innings in a month, he is going to be judged on the one time he messed up. Perez blew his second save of the season the day before the All-Star break, and although he has been perfect since, he simply hasn't had the opportunities to make up for it.

11. Joe Smith Above (-1)

2 Wins: Smith was second on the team in wins in July and is tied for third for 2012 as a reliever. He has been solid all year (especially this month) and has taken advantage of many games where the original starting pitcher was not as dependable as the Indians would have liked. Smith is especially successful at racking up wins because he is only used in close games, but isn't used exclusively in wins like Perez and Pestano are.

12. Jose Lopez Below (+2)

2 RBI: Lopez wasn't exactly impressive this month, but absolutely terrible performances by a few Indians starting pitchers have seen him climb up the rankings. His .220 batting average and single walk during July have made deciding who to start at third a daily headache for Indians manager Manny Acta.

13. Justin Masterson Below (-11)

1.54 WHIP: So much for those flashes of brilliance as Masterson has fallen off the wagon and started walking people again. Fifteen this month alone along with 40 hits allowed have ballooned his WHIP and ERA (5.55), but the fact that he is nowhere near being the Indians third worst starter is what is really depressing. His fall of 11 places in the rankings in one month is by far the most of any player this season.

14. Shelley Duncan Above (+6)

1.103 OPS: Duncan surprised everyone in July by playing how he was expected to play all season. In no more playing time than normal, Duncan has hit 4 home runs (9 total) and knocked in 10 runs (25 total) this month. He also batted .306 and only struck out 4 times as he is practically demanding to take playing time away from the struggling Hafner and Damon. At this point there is no reason Duncan shouldn't be starting somewhere every day.

15. Ubaldo Jimenez Below (-7)

6 HRA: Jimenez had a 6.09 ERA and there were still two Indians starters worse than him this month. He is continuing to strike hitters out (29 in July, 94 on the year), but his 1.74 is embarrassingly bad. Jimenez pitched more innings in July than anyone but Masterson and the Indians have no choice but to stick with him and wait for him to turn things around.

16. Jack Hannahan Below (0)

11 Hits: The reason Lopez is still the starting third baseman can be found by looking at Hannahan's line, .193/.246/.298. He makes Jose look good. If only Lonnie Chisenhall hadn't taken one for the team, Lopez could have been traded to the Yankees for the next Zach McAllister and Hannahan would be a solid late inning defensive replacement. Instead, Jack has to be used in some sort of sado-masochistic platoon situation where the two players batting averages added together equal .413.

17. Johnny Damon Even (+1)

2 XBH: While Damon is still considered the starting left fielder for the Tribe (he starts more games in left field than any other player at least) he has managed to do something interesting in July. He hit one double, one triple and walked once during an entire month. The fact that he stole two bases is a minor miracle, but doesn't add much to his value as a baseball player. At this point there may be dozens of more capable candidates for the job and Damon is just holding them back. One was recently sent to Los Angeles (Trevor Crowe), never to be seen of again. Hopefully the Indians will remove this dead weight from the roster before any more promising young outfielders disappear.

18. Derek Lowe Below (-9)

10.03 ERA: It can't get worse than this. If Lowe is listed on next month's rankings it will be a sure sign that the Indians have been eliminated. His fall has been dramatic since he peaked at the #2 spot in the first ever edition of the Indians Player Power Rankings. Lowe may just be the second worst starter on the Indians, but he is bad enough.

19. Josh Tomlin Below (-4)

1 Relief Appearance: The Indians decided to make this move just before the month ended. With both Lowe and Tomlin struggling they have put them together like some kind of starting pitcher nightmare Voltron that combined can't make it through five innings. In their first combined effort they allowed 11 hits, 8 runs, 2 walks and just recorded a single strike out in 5 innings. Tomlin's replacement is to be called up on Thursday and the Indians will have to make a choice with what to do with him, and Derek Lowe, by then.

20. Lou Marson Below (+1)

.194 AVG: Lou's back to normal, don't worry about anything. That one good month was just a fluke. There's nothing to see here. Certainly not a batting average above .200 or a single home run.

21. Esmil Rogers Even (-5)

10 Games Played: At 10 games, Rogers was the third most used reliever in the bullpen and established himself as king of the losers. The Indians have two bullpens, one consists of Perez, Pestano, Smith and sometimes Sipp (the Bullpen Mafia), while the other is used in games that have already been decided by terrible starting pitching and poor run support. Rogers is the best of these others at this point. The good news for him is there is room for advancement and if he continues to pitch well, he may be used in a close game that the Indians are winning, provided that that particular situation happens again this year.

22. Jeremy Accardo Below (-3)

7 BB: Seriously how do you walk seven batters in 13 innings as a relief pitcher. The job of a reliever is to come in and throw strikes. Accardo hasn't allowed many hits and has been effective getting batters to swing and miss, placing the majority of his 4.15 ERA to blame on his awful control.

23. Tony Sipp Above (+1)

1.93 ERA: The Indians lone left handed reliever out of the bullpen just had his best month of the season by far as he will look to slowly regain his stature as the Tribe's best matchup lefty out of the pen. He seems to have put his troubles behind him and will need to work the rest of the season in regaining management's trust. Assuming he doesn't slam any doors he already has one left hander beaten out anyway.

24. Cody Allen Above (New)

.067 BAA: Allen's 0.00 ERA is impressive, but even more so is the fact that he has only given up a single hit so far in the Majors. Enjoy watching this kid as he is truly special. Players simply don't rise through the Indians farm system this fast. At least it should make an interesting fireworks show when this rising fireball burns out.

25. Brent Lillibridge Even (New)

9 At bats: With just 9 at bats and games played at four different positions, it's impossible to get a read on Lillibridge at this point. All we can say for sure is that he is a gigantic upgrade over whoever that old guy was.

Here are June's rankings for comparison.

No longer with us (June Ranking in parenthesis):

Nick Hagadone Below (22)

Jason Donald Even (25)

Scott Barnes Below (DNF)

Aaron Cunningham Below (23)

In what was exactly the move Indians fans have been looking for throughout the past few years, the Indians have traded Jose De La Torre (a 26 year old relief pitcher in AA) to the Boston Red Sox for Brent Lillibridge (a 28 year old glorified pinch runner). 

First, what the Indians are losing. De La Torre started in Columbus this season after being brought over from the Mets during the off season. He was moderately successful, pitching in 7 games, striking out 16 in 10 innings and giving up four runs, but was demoted and has spent most of the season with Akron. With the Aeros he pitched well, going 7-1 from the bullpen with an ERA of 2.80 in 27 games (1 start). While he was playing well in AA, the fact that he is already 26 places him 2-4 years older than most of his competition. He was unlikely to ever make the Cleveland Indians Major League roster.

In return, Brent Lillibridge will be immediately placed on the 25 man and has already replaced Lonnie Chisenhall on the 40 man roster as Chisenhall has been moved to the 60 Day DL. This is his second trade of the year as he went to the Red Sox from the White Sox in the Kevin Youkilis trade. Of course the Indians would have preferred Kevin Youkilis. This year Lillibridge is batting .165, which means he will fit in very well with the other Indians left fielders, Aaron Cunningham (.175), Johnny Damon (.233) and Shelley Duncan (.225). He will most likely take the place of one of these players on the roster, which is too bad because then the Indians won't be able to brag about having four left fielders on the roster who are all batting under .250. At least we won't have to watch Cunningham look like a fool at the plate anymore. Now we can watch Lillibridge.

Overall I give this trade an A+, because they got a Major League outfielder for a minor league relief pitcher that will most certainly never pan out. A real positive to this trade, Lillibridge should be a boost defensively as he has only made one career error in 107 games in the outfield. He is also capable of playing first, second, third and shortstop, although he is not quite as proficient at those positions.

It has been a long and bumpy road for Fausto Carmona. Once upon a time he was 4th in the voting for the American League Cy Young. Before that he illegally changed his name and age to make himself more likely to be signed by a Major League team. After many struggles in the majors (and minors) and a short prison sentence ended with community service, Carmona is back, this time using his real name of Roberto Hernandez. Now, three years older than previously though, Hernandez will be looking to make a comeback and the question remains, can he still pitch? 

The Indians have had no short list of troubles with their starting rotation and will gladly welcome anyone who could throw 6 innings per game and keep an ERA under 4.00. Whether Hernandez can do that or not is extremely doubtful. After his struggles and return to the minors in both 2008 and 2009, Carmona had a pretty good 2010. Good enough to be an All-Star at least. He regressed in 2011, putting up what could have been considered his worst season in his career as he lost 15 games and posted a 5.25 ERA over 32 starts. Roberto hasn't faced Major League hitting since the end of that season and will not get a chance to face a true big league team until his return on August 11th. 

Until then Roberto Hernandez will be undergoing his 3 week suspension that is well deserved and well needed. It will give him time to pitch against professional baseball players in game situations instead of the batting practice he was throwing in the Indians Dominican Republic training facility. The Indians front office wants to keep a close eye on him, so he will likely start for Lake County and move up through the system as he makes 4 to 5 starts in the Indians minor league system. He should have to make at least one start at AA and two at AAA before he is deemed ready.

Once his suspension is served and his sinker is sinking there will certainly be a spot in the rotation for him. If the Indians think with their heads rather than their wallets he will replace Derek Lowe in the rotation rather than the expected Josh Tomlin. Lowe has gotten worse from start to start and is obviously out of gas after an extremely lengthy career. The best move for the Tribe would be to make him a long man out of the bullpen to replace one of the inconsistant pitchers there, preferably Jeremy Accardo. This would also give the Indians another option if the Roberto Hernandez experiment fails miserably. Rather than releasing Lowe or sending Tomlin to the minors, they would have his replacement ready to go immediately. 

This is all still three weeks away so a lot could still change. One thing I know for sure is that I don't want to hear a single person say that this is like the Indians making a big trade to get another starting pitcher. It is nothing like that and they should still be aggressive in the trade market trying to get another pitcher and another right handed hitter. If the Indians traded for a pitcher of Hernandez's caliber the front office would be booed out of Cleveland so they shouldn't try to make this a bigger deal than it is.

Welcome back Fausto. We love you, we really do.

Lou Marson has been the Indians back-up catcher since 2009 and he is finally starting to deserve all the at bats he has been given through the last four seasons. Although his playing time has been very limited this year (after starting the first two months batting under .200) he is now on pace for career highs in runs scored, hits, triples (already tied for career high), walks and all his rate stats (AVG, OBP, SLG) are already at career highs. This is not coming at an increase in playing time as is usually supposed (he has played less this year than the previous two seasons), but at a change in strategy against right handed pitchers. Over his career, Marson has hit .206 against righties, but this season he has turned things around and is currently hitting .322 on the season.

Recently most of Marson's starts have come against left handed pitching, although he does get a rare start against a righty every once in a while. In a recent tear, Marson had RBI in 4 consecutive games spanning from June 30th through July 7th. Three of those games featured left-handed starters and the Indians won all four of them, despite having a terrible record against left handed pitching this season (10-18 despite winning four of their last 6). Of the last four wins against left handers, Lou Marson went 1-3 with a double, walk and run scored against the Orioles' Bruce Chen (6/28), 4-5 with a double, triple, walk and 3 runs scored along with one driven in against the Orioles' Dana Eveland (6/30), 1-3 with an RBI and a steal against the Orioles' Brian Matusz and 1-3 with a double and a walk along with a run scored and an RBI. If he could do this every day then he would be an acceptable starter, but we already know he is incapable of that. As it is he deserves to take Casey Kotchman's place in the lineup for every game against a left handed starter, which will allow Carlos Santana to play first base. There is no question that Marson has been very instrumental in the Indians recent successes against left handed starters.

An aside for those of you calling for Lou Marson to take the starting job from Carlos Santana, here is a recent history lesson. Before Marson, the Indians had a back-up catcher named Kelly Shoppach, who had a decent season as a back-up in 2007 when he hit 7 home runs and drove in 30. He replaced super star Victor Martinez when he was injurred in 2008 and had a very good season hitting 20 home runs. This gave the Indians the confidence to allow him more at bats in 2009 by playing Martinez at first base almost half the time. Shoppach responded by batting .214 and the Indians were forced to trade him to Tampa Bay for Mitch Talbot. Before that the Indians had another catcher named Josh Bard who tried to cut it as a starter, but couldn't beat out Martinez either. Bard hit .193 in his final season with the Tribe before being traded for Kelly Shoppach. Skipping Tim Laker, who never tried to be a starter, will show the most offensive example of them all. Following the 2000 season the Indians decided they didn't need to resign their superstar catcher, current bench coach Sandy Alomar Jr, because they had the future in tow in Einar Diaz. Diaz played very well as a reserve in 1999 hitting .281 and 2000 hitting .272. Even in 2001 he was not terrible as he hit .277 and knocked in 56. Diaz then fell apart in 2002, batting .206 over 102 games with just 21 total extra base hits and only 16 runs knocked in. The best thing that every happened because of Einar Diaz is that the Texas Rangers were so stupid they traded Travis Hafner for him prior to the 2003 season. Alomar went on to play most of the rest of the decade, while Diaz retired after 2006.

The moral to this story is that a back-up catcher should stay a back-up catcher when playing behind a superstar, unless you can trade him for another superstar. No one has every said that Lou Marson could be a multiple time All-Star and possible Hall of Famer, but people have said that about Carlos Santana. Give him some time to recover from his injuries and let him get back to his old self. The Indians aren't the Browns and Santana isn't Tim Couch, I mean Kelly Holcomb, Charlie Frye? Brady Quinn? Derek Anderson? I guess it's Colt McCoy now isn't it. Feel free to constantly boo the current guy and beg for the next guy with the Browns, but the Indians don't work that way. When you get a guy like Carlos Santana for a player like Casey Blake, you keep him for as long as he will stay.

Nick Hagadone had it made. He was a huge piece of the a trade that sent an Indians superstar (Victor Martinez) away and the Indians always over value the players brought back in such deals. He pitched well in a short time in 2011, and well enough this Spring to make him the first relief pitcher called up from AAA this year. In the pros he was good enough to earn the top left hander spot in the bullpen as Rafael Perez was injured and Tony Sipp has been inconsistent. Scott Barnes, who was also pitching well during the early part of the season got blown out once and was sent down, thus alleviating any competition for Hagadone on the 40 man roster. All he had to do was sit in the bullpen, warm up when he was told and pitch to the best of his abilities when called upon.

Instead this idiot punched a wall (or something else hard enough to break his arm). Hagadone will now be out for the season, placing him in the same place next year that he was this year (fighting for a spot in the bullpen) instead of working on his game in the Majors, trying to get better. Now he has to sit for the next two months without even holding a baseball and will need to rehab after that. The Indians have placed him on the disqualification list meaning they don't have to pay him until he comes back from injury and they are completely justified in their actions. Hagadone was purchased (for a very large price) from the Red Sox as property and he has made that property useless. If this was accidental it would be a totally different situation, but this was a conscious decision to hurt his pitching arm with full knowledge that he would probably hurt himself and that he would lose all respect of the Indians front office.

Good luck to Hagadone in 2013. He is still welcome to pitch for the Indians, he just needs the rest of the year as time to cool off. He had it made, but overreacted after a small failure (2 hits, 2 walks and 2 runs allowed in 0.2 innings) and showed everyone a little bit more of his character. Hopefully during his time off he can spend some time with Josh Tomlin to learn how to be zen. Nick Hagadone was supposed to help the Indians in their playoff chase. Now he can just sit back and watch and think about what an idiot he was.

At the half way point in the season, the Indians find themselves just where they were projected, between the White Sox and the Tigers. The unexpected part is that the White Sox are in first while the Tigers are in third. Cleveland is currently 3 games behind Chicago and a half game ahead of Detroit. The Indians will be able to decide their own fate this season, at least as far as Detroit is concerned as they will play each other in four more series. The Tribe also have two series against Chicago to end the year.

Overall the Indians have been very inconsistent this season, although the same could be said about every team in the AL Central. If this was not the case someone probably would have ran away with the division by now. One of Cleveland's biggest problems has been facing left handed pitching, where they have gone 9-16 compared to 35-25 against right handers. They seem to have made some advancements of late in this situation, winning their last two. In fact since I wrote this article (Lefties Suck, 6/4) they have gone 5-4. This change can most strongly be pinned on Lou Marson, who has not played much against righties, but has been starting against some left handers. At the beginning of the season he was basically an automatic out (.147 batting average in April and May), but recently he has played well enough to get his season batting average up to .297 and has knocked in 7 of his 8 RBI in his last 30 games. Shelley Duncan, Casey Kotchman and Johnny Damon have all also picked up their game slightly of late, leading to an increase in Indians run production all around.

Another issue the Tribe has faced and pulled through is the starting rotation. It will probably require some more tweaks as the season goes on, but things are much better now than they were in April. Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez are the team's two aces and are finally pitching like they belong there. Jimenez has about half his strike outs in the last month alone and each pitcher has lowered their ERA significantly, finally bringing them toward respectability. Josh Tomlin is still an issue and I have doubts that Derek Lowe will be able to finish this season, but Zach McAllister has performed admirably, giving the Indians at least three quality starters each time through the rotation. Tribe management acted quickly replacing Jeanmar Gomez with McAllister at the first sign of trouble and will hopefully do the same with either Tomlin or Lowe should they get any worse. The Indians AAA team is very deep in starting pitching including Corey Kluber (who threw out of the Indians bullpen late in 2011), former Twin Kevin Slowey, David Huff, Spring Training invitee Chris Seddon and the mustache himself Eric Berger. On a rebuilding team you can afford to allow young players some time to work out their struggles, but that isn't the case in a playoff chase.

As it has been the last two years, the Indians bullpen is one of the best in baseball. Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez have teamed up to become some sort of dynamic duo inside the Bullpen Mafia. In Indians wins they both have ERAs under 1.50 (Pestano 1.24, Perez 1.01) and have combined for 3 wins, 24 saves and 22 holds along with 61 strike outs in 55.2 innings between the two of them. If the Indians can get a lead going into the 8th inning, they are almost unbeatable. The rest of the bullpen has been a little shakier although Joe Smith has been as reliable as always and Esmil Rogers has been a total surprise. The left handed reliever spot has become a bit of a worry for the Tribe and what was a very deep position for the Indians at the beginning of the season has become a trouble spot. Rafael Perez is still out with injury for an unknown amount of time and Tony Sipp (while better the last couple of weeks) has been a major let down this year. Nick Hagadone played well to start, but is currently shelved in the minors pending an attitude adjustment and Scott Barnes is his emergency replacement. From what he has shown already this year in Columbus and Cleveland, Barnes should have what it takes to be the main lefty out of the bullpen. Although his ERA may look terrible, keep in mind that 5 of his 6 runs allowed came in one game in Cincinnati that was already a blow out before he came in.

The Indians will have a tough race for the rest of the season, but there is no reason they shouldn't stay in it until the end. Starting pitching is weak in general throughout the division as the White Sox, like the Indians, also are limited by their two aces (Jake Peavy and Chris Sale) as far as quality goes and the Tigers just have 2011 MVP and Cy Young Justin Verlander. Almost certainly one of the three teams will make a move for a big name starting pitcher, while at least the Indians will be looking to improve offensively before the trade deadline. While it isn't necessary for a playoff run, it would certainly help if the Indians could trade for corner infielder or outfielder and a starting pitcher.

International Free Agent signing season opened yesterday (7/3) and the Indians have quickly been making moves. Already the Tribe has signed Japanese pitcher Naoki Hashimoto and Venezuelan catcher Yoiber Marquina. They have also made agreements with four players out of the Dominican Republic including catcher Francisco Mejia, outfielder Hector Caro and infielder Grofy Cruz.

The International market has been a huge success in recent years for the Tribe as they have brought in such players as Rafael Perez, Fausto Carmona, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta. I for one hope they do a background check on this Grofy character as there is no way that is his real name. We don't want to see another Roberto Heredia Hernandez here. The biggest signing of this group is Hector Caro who is 16 years old and will be making a reported $1.1 million signing bonus.

The Indians had some ups and some downs in June. Here are the players that brought their batting averages up, ERAs down and those that were called up and sent down to and from Columbus. Same rules as last time, the ranking is for the entire year, the stat for the last month.

1. Jason Kipnis Even (0)

8 Steals: Kipnis lead the team again in June and retains his top spot in the player rankings. This month he stole 8 bases as he continues to lead the team in that stat among others. He was not caught stealing during the month of June.

2. Justin Masterson Above (+4)

2 Wins: Justin Masterson finally pitched like the ace he is this month as he only allowed 8 runs in 35 innings and earned two wins for his efforts. He did lose 3 games during the month due to lack of run support, but he showed a vast improvement in his overall results.

3. Shin-Soo Choo Above (+5)

.579 Slugging Percent: Choo really turned it on during the last two games of the month to make his numbers respectable. With those two games (10 total bases) he took over the team lead in batting average and slugging percent in June.

4. Asdrubal Cabrera Above (-2)

20 RBI: Cabrera lead the team in June in RBI batting out of the second spot in the lineup. The fact that he could do this at all goes a lot to show how successful Choo has been as a lead-off hitter and how well the bottom of the lineup is getting on base. Cabrera has had to his part too, by actually taking advantage of these scoring opportunities.

5. Vinnie Pestano Above (+4)

4 Hits Allowed: Pestano was dominant again in June and he only allowed 4 hits and 1 run in his 9.1 innings. He also added another 5 saves to his already impressive total.

6. Michael Brantley Above (-1)

10 Walks: Brantley improved so much in June that he was temporarily placed in the clean-up spot with Santana on the mend. The 10 walks match his total for the previous two months and show his improvement in maturity as a hitter.

7. Chris Perez Above (0)

0 Walks Allowed: Perez continued his streak of perfection as he saved another 6 straight games. During save opportunties he has been just about perfect and didn't allow a single walk all month.

8. Ubaldo Jimenez Above (+7)

.210 Batting Average Against: The former finally found his stride during the month of June and not only didn't allow runners on by hit, but also cut his walks down as he only walked 11 compared to 32 strike outs.

9. Derek Lowe Below (-6)

3 Losses: What happened to Derek Lowe? Reality. With rate stats of a 6.49 ERA, .317 BAA and 1.64 WHIP it is no surprise that Lowe lost three of his six starts. What is surprising is that he didn't lose all six.

10. Joe Smith Even (+4)

12 Games: Smith pitched in more games than any Indians reliever this month. He should be the Indians most used as he continues to keep batters off the bases and from crossing the plate.

11. Carlos Santana Below (New)

20 Strike outs: In limited playing time (20 games), Santana still managed to strike out more than all but two players on the team. This wouldn't be as big of a deal if he had more than 11 hits during the entire month.

12. Casey Kotchman Even (-2)

3 Home Runs: No one expected this type of power coming out of Kotchman this season, but it is a good thing he has been hitting the long ball as he isn't hitting much else. His .229 average during June is a far cry from the top ten hitter the Indians thought they were getting in the off season.

13. Jose Lopez Below (-2)

.273 OBP: What would be a fairly good batting average for Lopez is a terrible on-base percentage as he only managed to walk twice all month. Things were looking good with Chisenhall taking his place as back-up third baseman, but with Lonnie out for the foreseeable future, Lopez will have to step up his game over the next month.

14. Zach McAllister Above (New)

1 Start: McAllister only made one start during June, but it was a good one as he only allowed 2 runs and earned the win.

15. Josh Tomlin Below (-2)

.346 BAA: Tomlin and Lowe, along with Gomez have been the two Indians starters keeping the team down during the past month as their two aces have started performing. Tomlin has been especially bad as he allowed more runs and hits than any other pitcher this month.

16. Jack Hannahan Below (New)

0 Extra Base Hits: Hannahan missed the end of May and the beginning of June on the DL, but since his return he has made Indians fans wished he stayed there. He will see more regular at bats with Chisenhall out despite his .143 batting average that month.

17. Esmil Rogers Above (New)

1.74 ERA: The Rockies must be shocked as Rogers looks like a completely different pitcher for the Indians than he did in Colorado. His ERA this month is fairly significant as well as he pitched the third most innings of all the Indians relievers with 10.1.

18. Johnny Damon Even (-1)

12 Runs: Damon has struggled his whole time with the Tribe, but was a little better this month. Damon lead all players that aren't every day starters with 12 runs and 12 RBI.

19. Jeremy Accardo Below (-1)

12 Strike Outs: Accardo struck out 12 in his 12 innings pitched, but he also gave up 20 base runners. It's hard to give up that many runners with giving up runs and Accardo didn't prove that wrong as he had an ERA of 5.25.

20. Shelley Duncan Below (-4)

9 Hits: Duncan has been seeing less and less playing time since the signing of Damon and that trend will likely continue as more Indians come back from injury if he continues to bat near .200.

21. Lou Marson Above (+4)

.383 AVG: Marson made the biggest improvement of any Indian during June. After only 5 hits and 5 runs during the first two months, he hit 18 times in June with 10 runs scored. He also increased his extra base hits (5 in June after only 2 the previous two months) and RBI (4 in June, 1 in April and May combined). His biggest leap was in batting average where he increase his .147 average to .284 in just one month.

22. Nick Hagadone Below (-10)

12 Runs Allowed: Only three pitchers allowed more runs than Hagadone this month and all three are starters with more than over 20 innings pitched while Hagadone only threw 7. His failure has kept the Indians from using him in close situations this month after he was given two save opportunities just last month.

23. Aaron Cunningham Below (-5)

.139 OPS: This low of an OPS should not be possible in the Major Leagues. No value of late inning defense is worth the putrid batting abilities of Cunningham. He needs to be the next player out the door with his playing time given to Duncan to see if his season is savable at this point.

24. Tony Sipp Below (-5)

0.90 WHIP: Sipp finally stopped allowing so many runners as he recorded season lows in batting average against and WHIP this month. While he still allowed a lot of runs (5 on 4 home runs), the decrease in batters on base is a confident sign that he is improving and the runs should stop scoring as he continues his improvement.

25. Jason Donald DNP (New)

Jason Donald did not play this month as he was just added to the roster on the last day of the month. Donalds poor play early in the season was not enough to move him out of last place.

No longer with us (May Ranking in parenthesis):

Matt LaPorta Below (DNP)

Jeanmar Gomez Below (4)

Lonnie Chisenhall Even (21)

Scott Barnes Below (24)