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Starting Off Strong

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

From May 11th through the 19th, the Indians played nine games and won seven (tied with the Pirates and Rangers for best in the Majors over that span). The run has brought the Indians from third into 2.5 games ahead of Detroit for first in the Central Division. The main reason for the team's success has been very impressive starting pitching through the entire rotation. 

Across those nine games every starter threw at least five innings every game, averaging 6.1 innings per start. They have not just been pitching deep into games, but they have held an ERA of 2.05 as a staff over that time (4.37 starter ERA for the season). While this run does include two amazing starts by Justin Masterson, it also includes starts by five other pitchers due to a double header. The only bad start during the 9 game stretch was by Scott Kazmir who allowed four runs in five innings. Excluding that game (the last Indians loss), brings the starting rotations ERA to 1.56.

While this stretch was impressive and the underlying reason why the Indians are on a current five game winning streak, there has been another starting trend that has went on even longer. The Indians top three starters (Ubaldo Jimenez, Zach McAllister and Masterson) have combined for 18 consecutive starts with at least five innings thrown. The Indians as a team have went 14-4 through the last 18 starts by those three pitchers including a current 12 game winning streak. Those starters have held a 3.13 ERA over that spanUbaldo Jimenez1

To break the rotation down even further, Jimenez has seemingly turned things around. He still holds an ERA on the year of over 5.00, but in his last four starts, he has an ERA of 1.90 and is 3-0. He has also maintained his strike out totals, striking out 29 batters in 23.2 innings, while eliminating his walks allowed (just 8 after walking 11 and just striking out 15 in his first four starts). This has been one of his biggest issues since joining the Tribe and his recent success proves how important Ubaldo's control is to his ultimate success as a starting pitcher. This current run of four straight great outings (at least 5.2 innings pitched and no more than 2 runs allowed in any game) is his best run since August 28th through September 21st of 2011, just after being traded to Cleveland. The Indians went 4-2 over that span and have gone 4-0 during the one in 2013, proving that Ubaldo can still be a winning pitcher, despite considerable set-backs (not limited to the entire 2012 season).

Overall, the Indians have finally discovered the winning combination of keeping the other team from scoring runs while scoring runs of their own. Since April 28th, the Indians are 18-4, going from 8-13 in last place in the AL Central to the top of the heap at 26-17 and the starters are the base of that success. The Indians have a league high five shut outs over that time and have outscored their opponents 131 to 76.

The Indians will now go on to play 16 straight days against teams that are all over .500 and competing in their respective divisions. This will be followed by two series on the road against Detroit and Texas, two of the best offensive teams in the Majors. How the pitching staff fares against these foes will go a long way to show where this team will stand at the end of the season. While the next 21 games will not immediately decide the season, a good showing in the two series against the Tigers and going at least .500 against the other difficult teams (especially Texas and Cincinnatti) will cement the Indians as a contender in 2013 and on.

 

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Swisher the Outfielder

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

When Nick Swisher originally signed with the Indians this winter, it was as the starting right fielder. Shin-Soo Choo had already been traded and Mark Reynolds had been signed to be the first baseman. There was still a huge hole at DH however, that was taken care of when the Michael Bourn signing moved everyone over a spot (Drew Stubbs to right, Swisher to first, Reynolds to DH). This helped the Indians defense get better at three different positions (CF, RF and 1B) and bolstered the offense as well.

Back in the present, Swisher played each of the first 10 games at either first or DH (with Reynolds on first), but the addition of Jason Giambi to the roster forced a little moving around and Swisher played what was supposed to be a rare start in right field on April 14th. In that game Bourn sliced open his finger, knocking him out for at least two weeks and bringing the Indians lineup to look like the one originally described.

Since then, Swisher has played four games at first, five in right and DH'd three times. This is similar to what was originally expected of him and he has played well enough on defense so everyone should be happy. Except, the increased distance that needs to be thrown from right field compared to first base has caused Swisher some troubles and he has now missed two games in a row due to soreness in his left shoulder. The player the Indians signed to start in right field, possibly for the next four seasons, couldn't even play six games there before hurting himself to the point he needed to miss games.

Chances are, Bourn will be back within the week and Swisher won't be needed to play regularly in the outfield, and that one or two starts out there won't kill him, but it does pose a problem for the Indians. The Indians haven't carried a fourth outfielder to this point in 2013, because of Swisher and Ryan Raburn's versatility, but if Swisher is unable to play right field in a pinch, they will need to bring in someone new. Ezequiel Carrera is now playing in Philadelphia, while Tim Fedroff remains an internal option. While this may be a decent emergency solution, it will ruin the Indians interleague strategy that would feature Reynolds at first with Swisher in right while the DH role is not available.

Don't expect to see much more of Swisher in the outfield this season and even less in the years to come. The Indians simply can't afford to injur their $48 million dollar man, so they will do whatever they need to to keep him out of harms way and if that means keeping him in the infield, that is where he will stay. The scariest part of the whole thing? Now when the Indians need to bolster their lineup, they will be replacing Lonnie Chisenhall at third base with Mark Reynolds instead of replacing Stubbs in right. This means even more of one of the leagues worst defensive third basemen playing third on a much more regular basis. Justin Masterson should be very afraid.

Nick Swisher1

Swisher where he is most comfortable.

5/2 Update: The Indians have decided to bring up the extra outfielder already, announcing today that Ezequiel Carrera was claimed off waivers from the Phillies and will be added to the 25 man roster on Friday. This move further goes to show that Swisher will not be playing in the outfield much more this year.

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April 2013: Player Power Rankings

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Things haven't been quite as expected so far this year and multiple players have moved at least ten places from the preseason Power Rankings. In general, comparing this ranking to the preseason predictions we see that the bullpen as a unit has been fantastic as well as two (or three) starting pitchers, while the majority of the offense has fallen behind. The "Above," "Even" and "Below" remarks reference how the individual player has performed during the current month compared to their preseason expectations. This is why Jason Giambi batting is rated at "Even" while Jason Kipnis is rated "Below."  The rankings themselves show each players importance to the team to this point. The +/- number given after the rating tells the difference between the players current rank and their preseason position.

1. Carlos Santana Above (+1)

If you picked one player to lead the league in batting average before the season started, you may have picked Brantley or Bourne or even Kipnis, but the fact is, Carlos Santana leads all of Major League Baseball in batting average at .389. Everyone knew that Santana was going to be an integral part of the middle of this Indians lineup, but with the top of the lineup struggling, Santana has been the shining star.

2. Justin Masterson Above (+2)

Masterson started the season amazing, holding an ERA of under 2.00 until his final start of the month. The Indians took advantage of off-days and rain outs to use their ace as often as possible with him making six starts in April. He started 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA in his first three games, before falling back towards the norm and ending the month with a 3.12 ERA. He still remains the teams ace and the number one pitcher the Indians want on the mound in any situation as he always give the Indians a chance to win.

3. Mark Reynolds Above (+4)

With Bourne and Myers hurt and Swisher flailing, Reynolds has been by far the Indians best offseason pick-up. His 8 home runs are tied for third in the AL and easily lead the Indians. He also leads his team with 22 RBI and 17 runs scored. Even his negatives haven't been as bad as advertised to this point as he hasn't struck out too much and is batting a very respectable .301. Even defensively he has been impressive, especially since he was supposed to be the DH, but has been thrown into the first baseman's role following the Bourne injury.

4. Zach McAllister Above (+10)

McAllister has been the Indians second best starting pitcher, making him the second most important pitcher overall. He has thrown 30 innings this year and allowed just just 11 earned runs, the least of any starter. He gives the Indians a very fair chance to win every time out, which is all a team can ask from their fourth starter.

5. Nick Swisher Even (-2)

Swisher has yet to earn his big paycheck, but still has the majority of four seasons to do so. The fact is that Swisher was vastly overrated coming into the season after signing his large contract and is actually playing at the level he should be expected to. He has only knocked in 9 runs, but this is largely because of the inefficiencies of the players batting ahead of him. Instead, Swisher has been getting on base a lot (leading the team with 15 walks) in front of Reynolds and Santana, leading him to score more often than may have been expected.

6. Corey Kluber Above (New)

Kluber has done something this month that Brett Myers, Scott Kazmir, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer have been unable to do this season, which is make a quality start. After pitching the final four innings in relief in Kazmir's second start, Kluber started a game of his own and was magnificent. In three appearances he has thrown 12 innings and struck out 11, allowing just three runs. He seems to be the odd man out with Bauer scheduled to rejoin the rotation, but he is definitely not the worst pitcher on the team.

7. Joe Smith Above (+8)

Smith has to be considered the top reliever to this point as he is the only Indians pitcher yet to give up a run. He has only pitched 8 innings, mostly because of his role as the early right handed match-up man in close games. When the Indians have had close games, they have been able to go straight to Pestano and Perez and they don't like to use Smith in blowouts. He has struck out 9 batters and allowed a BAA of just .154 in his limited use.

8. Bryan Shaw Above (+12)

Shaw has probably been the top reliever in the Indians pen, giving up just a single run in more than ten innings with 13 strike outs. As a new member, the Indians didn't know what to expect from Shaw, but he has proven to be one of their greatest assets. He should now be trusted in any situation he is needed in. 

9. Chris Perez Even (+1)

The Indians closer has mostly been held back by a lack of opportunities. He has pitched in 8 games, but only had four chances at saves, one of which he blew. His ERA (1.13) and BAA  (.179) are more than respectable and his one blown save was a one run affair that the Indians ended up winning in extra innings.

10. Cody Allen Above (+6)

Allen has been used in a very different role so far this year, mostly as a long reliever in already decided games rather than as a match-up man. He has been fantastic in this role, and has currently pitched more innings (11) and struck out more batters (15) than any other pure reliever. He has allowed three runs, which leads to a higher ERA (2.38) than most of the bullpen, but chances are the others will come up to meet him at some point.

11. Vinnie Pestano Even (-2)

Pestano has been the Indians top reliever for the past two seasons, so it is surprising to see him this low on the rankings, but the bullpen as a whole has been an incredibly efficient unit and each of the players from 6 through 11 could be in just about any order.

12. Michael Brantley Below (-6)

Brantley was originially slated to bat later in the lineup, after the group of power hitters of Reynolds, Swisher and Santana. In this position he struggled, batting .282 in 11 games with just a single extra basee hit. When Michael Bourn went down, Brantley was moved into the lead-off spot and in the 11 games since he has batted .298 with five extra base hits. Even more impressive, he has knocked in seven runs from the lead-off spot when he only knocked in two from a more RBI friendly position.

13. Mike Aviles Even (+6)

Aviles has been exactly as advertised. He has been very versatile, playing three different infield positions and producing offensively despite not playing regularly. He was especially impressive at short stop while Cabrera missed a few days after falling on his wrist.

14. Nick Hagadone Even (New)

Hagadone was originally slated to be the teams left handed match-up man, but a good Spring by Hill moved him to more of a general role and Kazmir's injury forced him to start the year in Columbus. Since his return, Hagadone has been excellent, facing both righties and lefties, although he has been better against the left handers. He has yet to give up a hit against a left handed batter, although he has walked three.

15. Lonnie Chisenhall Below (-4)

Lonnie is playing his first full season in Cleveland and has been seeing some struggles that he probably should have been allowed to play through two years ago. He has had some positives this season especially on defense, where he has been better than thought in the minors and with his power stroke as he has hit three home runs already this year, placing him third on the Indians in home runs.

16. Drew Stubbs Below (-3)

Stubbs came to the Indians as a lead-off hitter and a centerfielder and was immediately turned into a number nine hitter and a right fielder. Defensively, he took to the change superbly, but offensively he leaves more to be desired. He currently leads the team in strike outs (not a big surprise), but has shown little of the power that comes with it. He has just four extra base hits, compared to Bourn who had seven in less than half as many games. As a bottom of the lineup hitter, there is no real pressure on Stubbs to perform and he will still be an asset to the team as a light hitting valuable defensive player, but with as weak as the Indians lineup has been, they can use help from anyone.

17. Rich Hill Even (+5)

As the second left handed reliever on the team, Hill hasn't thrown very many innings, being used as a one hitter pitcher most of the time. Hill has thrown just 4.2 innings in seven appearances. Hill has done his job as well as could be asked and having a second left hander in the bullpen has made Terry Francona's job easier on multiple occasions.

18. Asdrubal Cabrera Below (-10)

Cabrera has been firing up a little of late, but still has not played up to expectations for this month. In fact, combined with the failures of the next player listed as well, he can be blamed as the number one reason that the Indians have had trouble scoring. Their struggles and Terry Francona's insistance to keep them at the top of the lineup have made it very difficult for the sluggers batting behind them to knock in runs.

19. Jason Kipnis Below (-18)

Kipnis has been, by far, the most disappointing player on the Indians to this point. While his defense has maintained, he has struggled on offense and has been in a very important place in the top of the lineup. Despite batting either second or third in every game this year, he only has scored three times, a product of his .260 OBP. If this continues, the Indians will need to drop him in the lineup, possibly after the return of Bourn.

20. Yan Gomes Even (New)

Gomes has only played a few games for the Tribe this year, filling in whenever Lou Marson gets an owie. Despite playing in just 7 games, he already has hit two home runs and two triples. He also called one of Jimenez's best games this year, showing he can work with even the most difficult pitcher.

21. Ryan Raburn Even (+2)

Much like many other players on the roster, Raburn was thrown into a much increased role with the team after the Bourn injury. Raburn has been the default right fielder when Swisher has stayed at first base. The increase in playing time may have benefited Raburn in recent days as he just had his best game of the month, hitting two home runs and knocking in four of his 8 RBI in one game against the Royals (and 7 of the 8 in the Indians past two games). It seems to be between Raburn and Giambi as far as who will be released when Bourn comes back and Raburn's versatility and recent power streak could make the difference.

22. Matt Albers Below (0)

Albers missed considerable time due to a family emergency and his six games pitched are the least of any reliever. He is also the worst as far as ERA goes, allowing more than four runs per nine innings. He has pitched better in the past, and may return to form with a return to regular appearances out of the bullpen. Even going into the season he was considered the weakest link in the bullpen and remains to be the first man out if the Indians decide to bring up the next Cody Allen (aka Preston Guilmet).

23. Jason Giambi Even (New)

Giambi has done exactly what everyone expected this year. He has pinch hit some and played DH with Bourn out. During that time he has hit two mammoth home runs and popped out 11 times in 28 at bats (he has also struck out six times). He is a perfect pinch hitter as he is capable of hitting a home run at any second and will probably stay around until the Indians want to bring up one of their young sluggers, like Mike McDade or Jesus Aguilar.

24. Scott Kazmir Below (New)

Kazmir was initially supposed to be the Indians fifth starter, but ended up hitting the DL before he made his first start. Since returning, he has made two starts, thrown just over 8 innings and allowed 8 runs. This is easily explained by his 13 hits allowed (and three home runs) more than any other pitcher with less than 20 innings pitched. With Myers on the DL and Jimenez struggling, Kazmir is likely to remain in the rotation until he figures things out.

25.Ubaldo Jimenez Below (-8)

Only misguided optimism allowed me to originally rank Jimenez above the level where he is currently residing as the absolute worst player on the Cleveland Indians. This doesn't cope well with the fact that he remains the Indians number two starter. His last start to end the month was great, but last season he had similar starts surrounded by awful outings.

No Longer With Us
Carlos Santana1 15 Day DL

Michael Bourn Above
Brett Myers Below
Lou Marson Below

AAA Columbus

Carlos Carrasco Below
Omir Santos Even
Trevor Bauer Below
Cord Phelps Even
Fernando Nieve DNP
Scott Barnes Below

 

 

 

 

Carlos Santana:  Top Player on the Indians and in the AL.

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First Homestand Attendance Analysis

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Going into the season, the Cleveland Indians PR team was bragging about selling out the home opener in ten minutes after the Michael Bourn signing, making it seem like a return to age when getting tickets to a home opener meant standing in a line for hours and finding out they sold out before you got to the front.

The Indians have sold out every Opening Day since 2007 (when they didn't officially have one) except for 2010 when they sold a season high 38,900 seats. So basically, selling out Opening Day isn't that exciting since they have done it almost every single season since Jacob's Field opened in 1994. 

The real trick is the rest of the opening home stand as in recent years these have been some of the worst selling games in franchise history. In fact, in 2011 the Indians set an all time low in attendance during the second game of the year, then reset the record the next day, hitting an all-time low of 8,726. Of course, all these numbers are total tickets sold, not actually fans in the park, so they are even inflated a little over how many people were at the game. 

There is good reason for fans to stay away from the ballpark on those days, in general the sub-50 degree temperatures that can be expected the first few weeks in April. This season the weather has been particularly nasty, but when the tickets for these games went on sale, no one could have predicted the weather for the past week and as stated before, attendance numbers reflect total tickets sold, not actual game day attendance.

Since 2007 (well after the Indians sell out streak ended), the Indian have averaged about 18,000 fans per game in April (and a few in March), almost 5,000 per game below their regular season average. This season, the Indians have averaged 11,427 fans per game in April (there is one home game left this month), almost 7,000 fans per game less than their already low average. This is despite playing their first six games on the road in domes, waiting for the weather to warm up in Cleveland. 

Going back to 2011, that opening series can probably be considered the worst home stand since the creation of Jacob's Field. The Indians opened the season at home (always a mistake) against Chicago and averaged just 9,500 fans per game (excluding the sold out opener). Obviously, this was worse than this season, but the average temperature was just 41º compared to this years 53º and it came after an absolutely terrible 2010 season, while this year saw the most exciting offseason in years.

Early Spring press made it seem like ticket sales were good and season ticket sales were up, but a sub 10,000 fan crowd against Boston on Tuesday made things look a little different. This is made even worse when you look at who they played. The Yankees are the best single team draw for the Indians and they came for the only time this year last week. Over the past six years the Indians have averaged almost 9,000 more fans against New York than their normal average and average almost 1,000 more fans against the AL East in general. Most likely the weather kept those "die hard" Yankee fans away this year, when they normally come in July, meaning it probably cost the Indians as many as 40,000 total ticket sales by having this series early in the year.

Overall, the situation looks bad. The Indians likely overexagerated preseason sales in an attempt to bolster ticket sales, but it didn't work as well as they hoped. These early season number are embarassing, and go to show that Indians fans are completely jaded and will not buy in speculation. The Indians record may have proven their fans correct for staying home, it just remains to be seen if the Indians start winning, will the fans show up? Early speculation: probably not.

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Indians trade Eric Berger to Houston

Written by Mike Melaragno on .

The Cleveland Indians traded AA starting pitcher, Eric Berger (he of the infamous mustache) to Houston today in exchange for catcher Chris Wallace. This was a move that was made in response to the lack of catching depth in Akron and Columbus due to the injuries to Lou Marson (neck), Carlos Santana (thumb) and  Alex Laviski (toe).

According to the Houston Astros media guide, Chris Wallace grew up in the Houston area and attended the University of Houston. The Astros drafted him in the 16th round of the 2010 draft. He's never been considered much of a prospect, snagging the 30th place (according to Baseball America) in the organization going into 2012. Whenever you are drafted that late, the odds are against you of becoming a viable everyday player.

As a power-hitting catcher in the Houston system, Wallace produced at a decent .251/.330/.397 level in 2012, mainly at AA Corpus Christi. According to scouts, he strikes out too much, and his upside isn't high. As a result, he was passed on the Houston depth chart by catching prospect Carlos Perez and thus making him available. Still, Wallace looks like a good piece of a typical AL lineup, even if it's as a backup or twice-weekly role from the bench. He can also play a little first base, which would give Terry Francona even more flexibility on defense.

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It's a Kipnystery!

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Going into the season, Jason Kipnis was expected to be one of the most important players in the Indians' offense, a table setter, integral to the success of the entire lineup. He earned the job as the number three hitter after a fantastic 2012 season that saw him bat .257/.335/.379 in his first full Major League season. In general, it was expected that with another year of seasoning and playing in an improved offense those numbers would improve as he started to hit his expected potential. Instead, over the first week of the season he has struggled with a line of .138/.161/.251. 

He has played in 7 of the Indians first 8 games and was batting third until the last game against New York, when he switched places with Asdrubal Cabrera and batted second. It is hard to pinpoint exactly where his problem is stemming from. He doesn't seem to be swinging at bad pitches, but he has walked just once in the first week and struck out ten times.  When he has made contact, he has shown some power. Three of his four hits are doubles, two of which were deep to the outfield and he has flown out near the wall on multiple occasions, robbed by some good defensive plays.

It's possible his struggles have been mostly to do with bad luck like that. His BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is a paltry .200 (compared to a career rate of .292), despite keeping a line drive rate around 20%, the same as his career before this year. He also has a perfect Ground Ball/Fly Ball ratio of 1.00, meaning he hasn't changed his batting style thinking he was a power hitter and flying out to the outfield constantly. He also has grounded out into just a single double play, so he hasn't been costing the Indians a lot of extra outs on his ground balls.

All things considered, there doesn't seem to be much to worry about with Kipnis. His defense has been stellar to this point and he is one of the few infielders to avoid the error bug to this point. His all important line drive rate is staying consistent. He has likely just been unlucky, hitting the ball right at people, something that will certainly even out in time. His three doubles (second on the team) are proof that his power is still there. Kipnis did change his swing a little in the offseason, but he is still hitting the ball at the same ratios as past seasons. He will likely turn things around shortly as long as he continues to play the same way he is now. The worst thing he could do now is to press and allow his struggles with the bat to effect his glove, or to start swinging at pitches outside the strike zone because he isn't hitting safely with what he's swinging at right now. He is a young player and slumps are magnified at the beginning of the season. An athletic, scrappy player like Jason Kipnis will always end up succeeding in the long run.

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First Take on Trevor Bauer

Written by Mike Melaragno on .

Trevor Bauer's first career major league start with the Indians will forever be remembered as him being the first pitcher to walk the first four batters of a game since John Danks of the White Sox in 2009 and the first Indian since Bartolo Colon. However, Bauer's start was confirmation of everything we have heard about him: has a high ceiling, unpolished, raw, yet fun to watch.

Bauer reminded me of Tim Lincecum due to similarities in mechanics. Both have small frames that generate good velocity through a tremendous amount of torque in their windup. With Bauer, he has a propensity to dip his throwing shoulder when his throwing arm reaches the slot right before it begins to move forward, as pointed out by commentator Rick Manning during the broadcast. This will cause him to "push" the ball toward the plate instead of throwing it. If the shoulders are not leveled out somewhat at this point in his delivery, it could lead to an injury. Although, it could be argued that anything in the pitcher's delivery could lead to an injury.
 
Bauer showcased almost everything in his arsenal with the only exception being the screwball that is classified by pitch f/x. As a starter, he certainly has the potential to be a good number two or three. The difference between the speed of his fastball in which he topped at 94mph and curveball at 76mph is a good indication he can keep hitters off balance. If or when he can learn how to command his fastball, the difference in his pitch speed will force hitters to do more guessing at the plate or else risk getting frozen. Until then, hitters will simply anticipate the breaking ball and lay off the fastball.

During the middle of the shaky first inning in which he walked the four in a row, Bauer flashed a little of his potential during the Evan Longoria at-bat. On a 1-1 count with the bases loaded, he threw Longoria a 76 mph change up on the outer half of the plate in which he swung and missed. It was such a good change-up that I originally thought it was a fastball until I looked at the pitch speed on the "fox box." It was only the second time in the entire inning in which Bauer hit his spot, the first being the first pitch of the game- a 92mph fastball down the middle of the plate.

After seeing Bauer, it’s obvious the stuff is there for him to become a good starter for the Indians in the relatively near future. With four quality pitches and the ability to throw them from nearly identical release points, Bauer’s mechanics are sharp. However, with his being a cerebral pitcher, the potential is there for Bauer to unlock additional fastball movement and sharpen his command, leaving additional room for growth.

 

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Masterson's Opening Day Analysis

Written by Mike Melaragno on .

 

Justin Masterson picked up his first victory of the season last night despite a ground ball rate of 35.7%, his third lowest rate in the past two seasons. Despite being an extreme ground ball pitcher, pitching a game where his rate was in the mid-30's is not anything to be concerned about, given the small sample size. His good performance despite the aforementioned fact was an indication that the improved outfield defense kept the game under control more than they would have done so in the past. 
 
Last season, when the outfield defense was arguably at its worst, Masterson had only three games with a GB% under 40: 6-15 vs. Pit, 6-26 vs. New York and 8-30 vs. Oak. The only game he won out of those three was against Pittsburgh, when he struck out nine.Last night, he only needed five strikeouts to get the victory. With more balls in play this time around, he still recorded the victory despite striking out fewer batters.
 
With a career ground ball rate of 56% mainly the product of the mid-90's sinker he throws, last night could be an indication that his career rate might slide a little south of that this season. If he continues to struggle with the command of his sinker, he might be more comfortable challenging hitters with his fastball because, in the back of his mind, he knows the outfield has a better chance of running the ball down if he makes a mistake up in the strike-zone than in years past.
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Strike Out Kings

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

The Indians went all out this offseason to pick up some tremendous offensive talent increasing the power (Nick Swisher and Mark Reynolds) and speed (Drew Stubbs and Michael Bourne). Along with the attributes that the Indians were trying to improve in, they added another. An incredible ability to swing and miss at a baseball.

Mark Reynolds is the most famous of the group of newcomers for this as he owns the single season major league record for strike outs with 223 in 2009. To keep him from breaking his own record the next year, he was benched at the end of the season by the Arizona Diamondbacks, leading him to the number two mark with 211 (since passed by Adam Dunn in 2012). Of course, the 2009 record beat out his previous MLB record of 204 in 2008. Right now, Reynolds owns four of the top ten worst strike out seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. He will be the starting DH this year and should play in more than 140 games as he attempts to break his own record yet again.

Another newcomer is also in the top ten single season records as Drew Stubbs 2011 season comes in fourth with 205. Stubbs will be in a much better position than ever before as he will not be hitting lead-off for the Indians leading to less at bats and less important at bats. He will be much more likely to see more fast balls by pitchers just looking to get a bottom of the lineup hitter out as quickly as possible.

All-in-all, the Indians look to be adding a wind storm of new strike outs to the 2013 lineup. In order to celebrate what could be a record year, Burning River Baseball will be running a strike out tracker throughout the season, tallying the total times Indians batters k. The current record for a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks (the AL record is held by the 2007 Devil Rays with 1,324).

Using some very simple forcasting of the upcoming season, based solely on past performance and projected games played, the Indians should strike out about 1,210 times. While this isn't that close to the MLB record, it is near the Indians team record of 1,269 from 2011. There is also a good chance of either Reynolds or Stubbs breaking Jim Thome's single season record of 185 strike outs (2001). Thome also ranks second and third with his 1999 and 2000 seasons (as well as coming in 10th, 11th and 12th). In a way, this season will be an interesting experiment of the importance of strike outs. If the Indians can score more than five runs a game, it shouldn't matter that Stubbs and Reynolds each strike out more than once a game or that Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourne and Nick Swisher each strike out at least three times every four games.

Stick with us for the whole season and keep an eye on the side of the site as we track each and every Indians strike out in the 2013 season. As they break each individual record, we will update the goal, starting with the 2011 Indians record of 1,269, followed by the Rays AL record of 1,324, then the Diamondbacks MLB record of 1,529.

Drew Stubbs1

Drew Stubbs will be powering the windmill on top of Progressive Field in 2013.

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2013 Preseason Power Rankings

Written by Joseph Coblitz on .

Continuing from 2012, Burning River Baseball will be bringing you the Cleveland Indians Player Power Rankings. This is essentially a way to keep track of which players are performing above and below expectations. This first list is to set preseason expectations, while the rest will also include the players change in ranking from month to month and a rating of whether they were above or below expectations.

1. Jason Kipnis
Despite the many millions of dollars spent in the offseason, the most exciting player on the Indians was one that was already here. Kipnis lead the Indians offense last year with 76 RBI and 31 steals. In this years offense, he should be able to be less of a run producer and more of a table setter. Expect a drop in RBI, but an increase in average (around .290) and runs (100 or more) with more potent hitters batting behind him.

2. Carlos Santana
Like Kipnis, Santana was both here last year and will benefit from the increased Indians offensive prowess. He lead the Indians in home runs last year, but probably will not after the additions of Reynolds and Swisher. Chances are he will see more good strikes as well, which may lead to him walking less, but hitting for a higher average and more power than the past. Expect 20 or more home runs, a .275 average and a slight increase in RBI (in the mid 80s). Santana will also probably play less games now that the Indians have a real DH and first baseman.

3. Nick Swisher
Newcomer Swisher is the most talented new batter and has a good chance to lead the team in RBI in the upcoming season. He will be thrown right into the heart of the lineup, batting third or fourth, in front of Reynolds and behind Kipnis. Look for a decrease in his overall numbers from the past few seasons as the Indians lineup can't compare to the Yankees team he has been playing for. He will still be among the best hitters on the team though and should knock in between 80 and 90 runs with an average around .260.

4. Justin Masterson
While his scary Spring may bring some reservations, Masterson is still the ace of this team until proven otherwise. A positive outlook would see Masterson pitch 200 innings, strike out 175 and hold an ERA around 3.50. A more reasonable person should expect the innings with 25 less k's and an ERA above 4.50. As the ace, he warrants a ranking this high on the Power Rankings, but don't expect him to stay here very long.

5. Michael Bourne
Bourne will be the Indians new lead-off hitter and center fielder. He, along with Stubbs, looks to bring the steal back into style in Cleveland and could threaten to become the first base runner with 40 steals since Omar Vizquel took 42 in 1999. That looks to be about his ceiling however, so don't expect him to come near Kenny Lofton's record of 75. On base percentage (expect around .333) may be a concern as Bourne doesn't walk much and hits for an average batting average (somewhere in the middle .270s).

6. Michael Brantley
The Indians old center fielder is moving to left field and is almost the complete opposite at the plate from Bourne. Brantley is the Indians most likely hitter to break .300 this year, something no Indians hitter has done since Shin-Soo Choo in 2010. Brantley (and the Indians lineup as a unit) will benefit greatly by hitting in the bottom half instead of the top.  He should see a massive increase in runs (closer to 80 than the 63 times he scored in 2012), depending on where he bats and could also knock in more runs and hit more home runs (around 10) as he continues with his career progression.

7. Mark Reynolds
Another new addition, Reynolds immediately becomes the Indians premier power threat and will hopefully give the Indians their first 30+ home run hitter since Grady Sizemore in 2008. The Indians have been completely devoid of power for years, but finally bought some in Reynolds and Swisher. Reynolds is also a right handed hitter, another scarcity in former Indians teams.

8. Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera will remain as the Indians short stop, just one of the three position players (along with Santana and Kipnis) maintaining their position from last year's Opening Day. He has regressed from his amazing 2011 season and hit his stride. Expect his numbers to remain similar to past seasons (.275 average with 10 to 15 home runs). His emphasis should be on his defense, which has fallen off over the past two seasons to the point he could be considered a liability. His range is simply not good enough to make up for his 19 errors last year. With the improved offense around him, Cabrera doesn't need to worry about knocking in runs and should focus on preventing them instead.

9. Vinnie Pestano
Pestano will be the Indians primary set-up man again in 2013 after being utterly dominant in his first two seasons. He is shaping up to be the greatest relief pitcher in Indians history and will look to set a new franchise record for holds this season (he is 25 away). He set the single season mark last year with 36. While bullpens can be one of the more fickle parts of a baseball team, Pestano can be expected to maintain most of his excellence and, combined with Perez, should shorten the game to seven innings when the Indians get a lead.

10. Chris Perez
Perez is still the Indians closer, despite a great season by Pestano and another Spring Training injury. Despite missing almost all of the Spring, Perez says he will be ready for Opening Day. Since Perez was able to save 39 games last year on a poor Indians team he should threaten Jose Mesa's single season save record if he remains the closer all year.

11. Lonnie Chisenhall
The Chiz Kid is finally starting at third base without the light hitting, poor gloved Jack Hannahan holding him back. Without the new additions, Chisenhall would be thrust into the middle of the lineup with pressure put on him both offensively and defensively. Now, he will be able to bat in the lower third of the order and focus on just getting on base, rather than actually producing runs. The RBI should come for Lonnie however and Indians fans can expect an average around .275 with up to 60 RBI. His power numbers should be interesting as he has hit the ball hard this Spring and at all minor league levels. His upside seems to be around 20 home runs, but since this is his first full big league season it is hard to tell.

12. Brett Myers
Myers is one of two starters new to the Indians staff this year and will be playing the role of Derek Lowe from last year's saga. He should be a considerable improvement from Lowe, but will still provide some veteran solidarity in the middle of the rotation. If all goes as planned, Myers would be the first pitcher to get pushed to the bullpen to make room for the phenom Trevor Bauer.

13. Drew Stubbs
The starting right fielder, Stubbs is another new player and converted center fielder. He is an all or nothing hitter, capable of impressive power and even more impressive strike out totals. He may be the Indians ninth batter, helping him reduce his strike out totals if pitchers follow Bob Feller's old adage of making the ninth batter just put the ball in play. Expect his strike out numbers (166) to maintain, despite an increase in playing time as well as a large increase in RBI as he is now batting behind his team's best players instead of in front of them. 

14. Zach McAllister
McAllister is the number four starter and deservedly so after an impressive rookie campaign in 2012. In 22 starts he held an ERA just over 4.20, so his biggest struggle in 2013 will be increasing his innings load to around 200 while maintaining or lowering his ERA. If he can keep things even, he will give the improved Indians offense a chance to win every time out, which is all that will be asked of the Tribe's fourth starter.

15. Joe Smith
The Indians bullpen is the most tried and true part of the team and Smith is a huge part of that. With solid pitchers on either side of him, Smith is slated to be used as a right handed specialist, rather than a full inning pitcher. With two left handers (Hagadone and Hill) in the bullpen, the Indians will be a little more flexible than in the past, allowing them to match up against a lineup that alternates the handedness of it's hitters.

16. Cody Allen
Allen is moving into his second year and his first full professional season. He only spent parts of a single season in the minors after being drafted in 2011 and is already a trusted member of the bullpen. With questionable pitchers Tony Sipp and Esmil Rogers removed, this year's pen is even stronger than last years. That means Allen will be able to be used in low stress situations to make sure he is as good as he looked early on. His success this year could lead to a trade of Perez more than anything else as Pestano is ready to become the closer, but there is no obvious replacement for Pestano as set-up man.

17. Ubaldo Jimenez
After the travesty of a season Jimenez had in 2012, he doesn't deserve to sit any higher on this list, even though he is the number two starter. Jimenez may be the single most important player on the team when considering whether or not the Indians will make the playoffs. If he is on, he can be one of the best pitchers in the league, but when he is off, he makes it impossible for his team to win. He should be on a short leash after last season with Bauer itching to get back to the Majors.

18. Nick Hagadone
Hagadone has been one of the Indians top prospects and will be given his first chance to start the season with the team. The depth of the bullpen along with the availability of Hill make it seem that he will be used almost exclusively in single hitter match-ups. Once he proves he can excel against left handed hitters, he may be used in more lengthy outings. This Spring Hagadone threw 8 innings and struck out 11 without giving up a single run.

19. Mike Aviles
Aviles is the super-utility man that the Indians have always dreamed of and will be tasked with being the back-up at third base, short stop, second base and outfield after the release of Ezequiel Carrera. Rayburn is also available at third, second and the corner outfield spots, but is inferior offensively. Aviles should get to play at least a few games each week and may be used as a pinch runner late in games as he is the fastest player on the bench. His versatility will also help in this matter as he should be able to replace almost everyone in the field.

20. Bryan Shaw
Shaw came along with Stubbs in the Shin-Soo Choo trade and looks to be a definite upgrade in the bullpen. He is a young pitcher going into his third season and has a 3.18 ERA in almost 100 appearances. He looks like he should fit right in with the Indians bullpen, but will likely be used in low pressure situations early on as he shouldn't be needed in close games with Pestano, Perez, Smith and Hagadone available.

21. Rich Hill
Like Hagadone, Hill has had a perfect Spring through almost 8 innings. The former Cub, Oriole and Red Sox was a starter until 2010 when he signed with the Sox. His 2009 season was the only year since his great 2007 campaign that he pitched more than 20 innings, so this will be a big test to see if Hill has the stamina to be a reliever for an entire season. He certainly seems healthy and ready to pitch and the Indians using him as a left handed match-up reliever should aid him by slowly moving him into a full time role.

22. Matt Albers
Albers was the second reliever to come over in the Choo deal and was one of the last pitchers added to the bullpen. Like Shaw, he was strong last year for the Diamondbacks, finishing with a 2.39 ERA in 60 innings. As the old man (30) in the pen, he may be the first out when the Indians start making moves the first week of the season. Fifth starter Scott Kazmir is not being placed on the roster until April 6th, so the Indians need to drop a pitcher by that date.

23. Ryan Raburn
While Rayburn could be a diamond-in-the-rough, it is more likely that he will flop, just like he has in the past. In his last three Springs, he has hit at least four home runs and 11 RBI, but in 2012 he failed to accomplish in an entire season what he did in a single month in March. Expect an average below his career average of .250 and an OBP below .300. With all the talent on the roster, he will likely be used very sparingly, especially once another hitter is brough up after the first week of the season (see #25).

24. Lou Marson
In the biggest mistake of the 2013 roster, Marson will be returning as back-up catcher. The good news for the Indians is that with no other position for Santana to play, Marson will probably play less than his 70 games played in 2012. Expect his usual horridness along the lines of a .200 average with no home runs and very few RBI.

25. Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco is the defaul last player listed as he is only on the 25 man roster to serve a six game suspension he earned two years ago. Once he serves his suspension it is likely he will be headed back to AAA and a batter will be recalled to take his place as the Indians are carrying an extra pitcher. Yan Gomes and Jason Giambi are the two top choices for his replacement.

Jason Kipnis

#22 is the Indians #1 going into 2013

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