Series Preview: Indians at Red Sox 5/23-26

Written by Mike Melaragno on 23 May 2013.

Cleveland Indians (26-19) Chance of Postseason Play: (52.9%) at Boston Red Sox (28-19) Chance of Postseason Play: (61.3%)
Series 16, Games 46, 47, 48 and 49.
Fenway Park, Boston: 1.040, Hitters Park.

Weather: Humid to start the series on Thursday and Friday, so the ball should fly out of the park, especially over the MONSTAH in left field. No rain delays expected.

Thursday , May 23 7:10 EDT (STO, WKYC 3, MLBN)

Zach McAllister (3-3, 2.65) vs. Ryan Dempster (2-4, 4.27)

Dempster allowed five runs over 4.2 innings and did not factor in the decision Saturday against the Twins. He gave up eight hits while walking six and striking out two. Dempster's control was absolutely terrible to say the least, evident by the six walks and pitch count of 127 when he left the game but, due to great run support, he was able to avoid a loss. Although he has 63 strikeouts so far on the season, he has also allowed a lot of base runners. There are three main pitches in Dempster's repertoire, and that is a fastball, slider, and splitter. The slider and splitter are his most effective pitches, and he goes to his slider so much that he throws it almost as often as his fastball. He is mostly known for having an odd glove shake while he pitches, which is apparently done so hitters don't see him adjust his pitch grip prior to delivering the ball.

Friday, May 24 7:10 EDT (STO)

Justin Masterson (7-2, 2.83) vs. John Lackey (2-4, 3.31)

Lackey allowed one run (unearned) on one hit while striking out five without walking a batter to pick up the win in the Sox's 5-1 victory over the Twins on Sunday. A rain delay shortened the Lackey's outing to 84 pitches, or he could have given the Red Sox another inning. Lackey's 3.31 ERA and 3.22 xFIP so far this season is a bit of a surprise. After a horrible 2011 and 2012 after signing a big deal with the Red Sox, he got into tip-top shape in the off season and is looking to continue his good pitching.

Lackey has those numbers thanks to a 22.9 K% and 5.7 BB%. He can probably maintain a walk rate like that, but the K rate will likely regress. His swinging strike rate isn’t terrible at 8.1%, but he’s not going to strike out more than a batter per inning at that rate. And his velocity isn’t quite what it used to be. Expect him to settle in the 18%-19% range for the rest of the season. This is a good match up for the Indians, let's hope they take advantage.

Saturday, May 25 1:35 EDT (STO)

Scott Kazmir (L) (2-2, 6.35) vs. John Lester (L) (6-1, 3.15)
Lester was hit hard by the White Sox Monday night, allowing six runs and five earned over six innings of work while taking his first loss of the season. Lester has been mostly terrific this season, but the White Sox's bats caught up to him during the game. A little surprising knowing that the White Sox do not have a prolific offense. Lester has received strong run support this season as he ranks fourth in the majors with 8.84 runs per start, according to Elias. Lester likes the cut fastball against right-handed hitters and that is certainly his best pitch. They are hitting only .217 with a .618 OPS against him. So, the lefties in the Indians lineup are going to have to step up in order for them to score enough runs to win the game.

Sunday, May 26 1:35 EDT (STO)

Corey Kluber (3-3, 5.19) vs. Felix Doubront (L) (3-2, 5.61)
Doubront tossed six innings of two-run baseball Tuesday, allowing five hits and two walks to go with three strikeouts, during the team's loss in Chicago. Doubront induced 10 ground-ball outs, but his only mistake was a two-run homerun to Jeff Keppinger which put the game away. He'll follows up his third quality start of 2013 today against an Indians team who he held to two runs in five innings earlier this season.

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Series Preview: Tigers at Indians 5/21-22

Written by Joseph Coblitz on 21 May 2013.

Detroit Tigers (23-19) at Cleveland Indians (26-17)
Series 15, Games 44 and 45
Progressive Field: 95, Pitcher's Park
Weather: Looks like a chance of thunderstorms with temps in the mid 80's.

Tuesday, May 21 7:05 EDT (STO)
Max Scherzer (5-0, 3.98) vs. Corey Kluber (3-2, 5.40)
This series sets up well for the Tribe as they are 2.5 games ahead of the Tigers in the Central Division. This means that regardless of the results of the short series, the Indians will still be in first, but they also have the opportunity to move to 4.5 games up. Both pitching match-ups favor the Tigers, but the Indians were able to split two games in the last Tigers series with these same match-ups. Kluber will be playing for his roster spot again with Brett Myers scheduled to return within the next two times through the rotation. If he is a bad as he was last time against Detroit, this could be his last start with either Myers or Trevor Bauer returning. While a fifth place team can tolerate a replacement level pitcher allowing three or more runs in a five inning start, a first place team can't.

One major difference between this time and the last series is that Miguel Cabrera has turned on the afterburners and went from being the hottest player in the Majors to a towering inferno. He now leads the league in AVG, hits, runs and RBI after a three home run, 5 RBI against the Rangers. He hit one out against Kluber last time they played, so giving him a few more intentional walks wouldn't be a bad idea.

Wednesday, May 22 7:05 EDT (STO)
Justin Verlander (4-4, 3.17) vs. Ubaldo Jimenez (3-2, 5.31)
In the surprise of the series, last time around, Jimenez out-dueled the former Cy Young and Triple Crown award winner. Jimenez has had four straight good starts and is either turning things around or getting ready for his biggest drop off to date.

Facing Verlander will be a challenge of it's own for the Tribe hitters, but one they are familiar with to this point. They have already set a record by beating 7 (of 8 faced) former Cy Young Award winners before June 1st and Verlander will be a chance for another. He will be the first of these former winners to face the Indians a second time, but they shouldn't be too worried. Verlander has face the Indians more times than any other team in his career and no other team (that has faced him at least eight times) has been more successful. For some reason, Verlander loses all control against the Tribe and has hit almost twice as many Indians batters than any other team and has thrown seven more wild pitches against Cleveland than any other team. His 75 walks and 221 strike outs are also team highs. This patient and powerful Indians line-up matches up with Verlander better than just about any other team.

The Indians should be able to hit off either Tiger starter, irrelevant of their successes against the rest of the league, but the real question of who will win the series depends on how the Indians starters throw. Each has been successful this year, but they both have struggled at times as well. This is the end of the home stand and the start of a long, difficult stretch of baseball, so they will want to start off right.

Of course, after the improbable wins against the Mariners in the last series, it certainly seems like the baseball gods are looking down on the Tribe. If they keep getting breaks like those, they won't ever lose.

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Series Preview: Mariners at Indians 5/17-20

Written by Mike Melaragno on 16 May 2013.

Seattle Mariners (19-21) Chance of Postseason Play: (19.8%) at Cleveland Indians (22-17) Chance of Postseason Play: (46.1%)
Series 14, Games 40, 41, 42 and 43.
Progressive Field: 0.905, Slight Pitchers Park.
Weather: Beautiful weather on the North coast this weekend! Especially for baseball.

Friday , May 17 7:05 EDT (STO)

Ubaldo Jimenez (3-2, 5.55) vs. Brandon Maurer (2-5, 5.97)

Maurer's fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range, teasing the mid-90s on occasion, with some arm side run and some downward plane. He complements the four-seamer with a change-up in the 84-86 mph range and two breaking balls; the slider breaks sharp and late, though it does tend to flatten out at times. The curve ball is clocked in the 76-80 mph range with 12-6 break. One scout I read while researching Mauer called the slider a plus pitch "to go with an above-average curve ball," though the curve ball is a more consistent offering for him right now, and changes the eye level of the hitter. He is capable of throwing both pitches for called strikes, gets some swings and misses with both and often starts out batters with the slider in order to mix things up some. The change-up is average at best, but much improved from when he was first drafted. Maurer is aggressive and will work both sides of the plate with his fastball and throws strikes with it, usually getting ahead. He's adept at keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate, which bodes well for any big-league aspirations. At 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, Maurer is big and strong but repeats his delivery well, reminding a lot of scouts of John Lackey, and stays on top of his pitches -- which helps create the plane and the ability to avoid the long ball. Maurer has the stuff of a mid-rotation starter, perhaps better with more development of the change-up and continued improvement with his command. He has never faced any member of the Indians and that has proven to cause them headaches this season.

Saturday, May 18 1:05 EDT (STO)

Zach McAllister (2-2, 5.64) vs. Joe Saunders (L) (3-4, 5.51)

Saunders picked up the win Sunday against Oakland, giving up just one earned run on five hits over 6.1 innings pitched. He walked three but struck out six. Saunders improved to 3-0 at Safeco Field, compared to 0-4 on the road. His ERA still sits at an ugly 5.51, but that's largely due to his 12.54 road ERA. According to Elias, Saunders improved to 9-0 with a 1.72 ERA in 13 career games at Safeco Field with that win. It's a good thing the Indians will face him at Progressive Field. Saunders throws mainly sinking fast balls and in 2012 averaged just under 90 MPH, according to Pitch F/X. Even as a left-hander, this is slightly below average velocity. He may thrown an occasional slider, but it is not a big part of his repertoire, and there is evidence that he doesn’t throw it anymore. His main breaking pitches are his change-up and his curve ball. He uses them traditionally, with curve balls over a quarter of the time, especially when he is ahead, to lefties (when he has the platoon advantage), and change-ups nearly a quarter of the time, especially when behind, against righties (when he doesn’t have the platoon advantage). He very rarely throws the change against lefties. That's good news for Michael Brantley and Nick Swisher.

Sunday, May 19 1:05 EDT (STO)

Justin Masterson(6-2, 3.14) vs. Felix Hernandez (5-2, 1.53)

What a matchup. Two of the American League's best will square off in a afternoon matinee. Hernandez has been listed as "day to day" because of a sore lower back recently. Hernandez said he felt a “pinch” in his lower back, which has bothered him on occasion this season, when he turned and threw to second on a pick-off attempt. Shifting his weight from one side to the other while throwing to second gave him a shot of pain. After taking a warm-up pitch, Hernandez waved off manager Eric Wedge and trainer Rick Griffin to finish the sixth. But,Wedge wouldn't hear any of it. According to other reports, it looks as if it will not affect his pitching at all.

Monday, May 20 12:05 EDT (STO)

Scott Kazmir (L) (2-2, 5.33) vs. Hisashi Iwakuma (5-1, 1.84)

By looking at Iwakuma's stats, poking fun at how to spell or pronounce his name shouldn't be a laughing matter. To save some agony on my end trying to locate video on him, Mike Fast at Baseball Prospectus did an excellent job doing a scouting report on Iwakuma from the 2009 World Baseball Classic.

Prediction: Indians split the series, 2-2.

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Series Preview: Indians at Phillies 5/14-15

Written by Mike Melaragno on 14 May 2013.

Cleveland Indians (21-16) Chance of Postseason Play: (44.8%) at Philadelphia Phillies (18-21) Chance of Postseason Play: (15.2%)
Series 13, Games 38 and 39
Citizens Bank Park, Philly, PA: 1.324, Extreme hitters park.

Weather: Expect no delays or rainouts; ZERO percent chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

Overview:
The Indians head into Philadelphia as one of the hottest teams in baseball and are hoping to stay that way by repeating their most recent performances against the Phillies.
The Indians will seek their 14th win in 18 games in the opener of a two-game series Tuesday night. The Indians are visiting Philadelphia with four wins in their last five on the road and will try to add to that by repeating how they beat the Phillies earlier this season. They outscored the Phillies 20-2 and posted a 31-8 advantage in hits during a two-game home sweep April 30-May 1. The Phillies are hosting the Indians for the second time; a three-game sweep for the Phillies in the other visit on June 22-24, 2010.

Tuesday , May 14 7:05 EDT (STO)
Scott Kazmir (L) (2-1, 4.87) vs. Jonathan Pettibone (2-0, 3.63)

Pettibone gave up three runs on seven hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Wednesday. On paper, it does not seem like an overwhelmingly impressive outing for Pettibone, who finished the day with just one strikeout while throwing 112 pitches. Considering the injuries to Roy Halladay and John Lannan as well as the limited number of viable alternatives in the upper levels of the Phillies' farm system, Pettibone could be in the rotation for the next several weeks.

The Phillies gave Pettibone a $500,000 signing bonus as a third-round pick in 2008 and sent him to the Gulf Coast League for one start. In 2009, Pettibone moved on to the New York-Penn League, where he tossed 35 1/3 innings with a 5.35 ERA as one of the younger players in the league. The Phillies continued to promote him a level at a time as he moved to Low-A in 2010 and put together his first truly successful season, posting a 3.49 ERA in 131 1/3 innings. Pettibone’s breakout campaign came when he tore through the High-A Florida State League in 2011 with a 2.96 ERA, less than a hit per inning, and better than a three-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio. Pettibone continued his success in 2012 with a strong showing in Double-A before a late-season promotion to Triple-A.

Once in Triple-A, Pettibone earned a 2.55 ERA across seven starts with the best strikeout rate of his career. Back in Triple-A to start the 2013 campaign, Pettibone has posted a 9.64 ERA in two starts. He was called up this month to replace the injured John Lannan in the starting rotation. Pettibone certainly isn’t a flashy pitcher, but he does plenty of things well enough to succeed in the majors. His above-average command allows his deep arsenal to play up across the board. He locates his hard sinking fastball well, as it sits in the 91-92 mph range and can touch 94 when he reaches back for more. He is very tall; his 6’6” frame and high three-quarters arm slot allow him to gain good leverage on his pitches. According to scouts, Pettibone added a cut fastball to his arsenal last season, and there were flashes of effectiveness, giving him a sharper, more consistent pitch with horizontal movement. His slider is a bit softer than his cutter but can still be an average offering at times. Pettibone’s best pitch is a plus changeup that has excellent deception and can miss bats when set up properly. He is capable of pitching backwards to keep hitters off balance but can also find success with more traditional sequences. Pettibone is an intelligent pitcher who gets the most out of his raw stuff and should be able to slot in as a number 4 starter on a good team over the long haul.

Wednesday, May 15 1:05 EDT (STO)
Corey Kluber (2-2, 5.64) vs. Cole Hamels (L) (1-5, 4.18)

Hamels took the loss at Arizona on Thursday, allowing two runs and six hits over six innings. He issued five walks and struck out three. Hamels seemed to be fortunate, considering he allowed 11 base-runners. He usually has excellent command, but the walks are starting to become a problem, with 11 free passes in his last three starts.Overall, it’s really just an issue with walks so far this season. His career BB% is 6.3% and in 2013, it’s 10.1%. He’s had two games where he really struggled to spot the ball, but other than that he’s been pretty much as advertised. In fact, if you look at his last six starts, he’s held opposing batters to a .186/.274/.331 slash line and posted a 2.41 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate. The walks are a concern, yes, but his other peripherals are right on target. He will be a guy the Indians will struggle with.

Prediction: Both teams win one game and split the series. The Indians beat Pettibone on Tuesday evening.

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Series Preview: Indians at Tigers 5/10-12

Written by Mike Melaragno on 09 May 2013.

Cleveland Indians (18-14) Chance of Postseason Play (42.5%) at Detroit Tigers (19-12) Chance of Postseason Play (74.7%)
Series 12, Games 33, 34,and 35
Comerica Park, Detroit: 1.267, Extreme hitters park.

Weather: The weather looks decent; the only real threat to baseball being the first game of the series on Friday with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Overview: The Tigers rank first in Major League Baseball in both batting average (.283) and on-base percentage (.351) while the Indians rank first in slugging percentage (.468). The series should be labeled the "clash of the offensive titans" as both teams bring in prolific sluggers to battle it out for first place in the A.L. Central. The pitching matchups do not favor the Indians at all. On the surface, having to face both Scherzer and Verlander back to back in a single series is tough enough. When you read between the lines, the Tigers have a 9.7 HR/FB rate which means they score a lot of runs while keeping the ball in the park. Since the Indians are throwing mostly ground ball pitchers at the Tigers this weekend, they wont have to worry about beating the Indians with the long ball. Much of that has to do with the spacious outfield at Comerica, though, and the Indians outfield is built to run balls down. It should be a good, close series.

Friday , May 10 7:08 EDT (STO)
Corey Kluber (2-1, 3.06) vs. Max Scherzer (4-0, 3.43)

Scherzer allowed one run over eight innings and was the winning pitcher Saturday against the Astros. He gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight. It was another fantastic start for Scherzer, who pitched very well while also receiving 17 runs of support. The win brought his record to 4-0 on the season to go along with a 3.43 ERA, 54 strikeouts and nine walks. Obviosuly with these numbers, he is an early candidate for the A.L. Cy Young award. Scherzer had a 29.4% strikeout rate last season, the best among all starting pitchers. Scherzer got batters to swing and miss at 28.4 percent of his pitches, second in the majors among starters to Yu Darvish (29.1 percent). This season, his strikeout rate is 35.1%. Of his six starts thus far this season, he has only faced one team whose slugging percentage is in the top ten in Major League Baseball: The Yankess on 04/06 (.420.) This will be Scherzer's second start against a team in the aforementioned category; the Indians are ranked first as mentioned above.

Saturday, May 11 7:08 EDT (STO) (MLBN)
Ubaldo Jimenez (2-2 6.37) vs. Justin Verlander (4-2, 1.55)

The Indians face another former Cy Young award winner. Verlander improved to 4-2 on the year with a win against the Astros on Sunday. He pitched seven innings, giving up just two hits and striking out nine. Even though he threw 116 pitches to get through seven innings against the Astros,he did not allow a hit until the seventh inning. After concerns about everything from velocity to a blister on his hand this season, Verlander continues to dominate in the stats category. The blister on his pitching thumb continues to be only a nuisance for the right-hander, as he is not expected to miss any starts because of the issue.

Sunday, May 12 1:08 EDT (STO)
Zach McAllister (3-3, 2.63) vs. Rick Porcello (1-2, 7.52)

Porcello turned in his best start of the year against the Astros on Thursday, with three runs allowed and seven strikeouts over seven innings. Porcello throws both a two-seam and four-seam fastball and both of which can reach the mid-90s with regularity although the four-seamer is a bit faster. The heavy two-seamer has plenty of life down in the zone and induces ground balls. He has a good feel for his change-up and can throw it in any count. He possesses excellent command, particularly of his fastball, to both sides of the plate. He made a change to his pitch selection in spring training, opting to throw more curve balls than sliders this season. Porcello has the makeup, poise and mound presence to be an elite starter in the game, however the Tigers have not gotten the results they have wanted. One sure sign that the organization thinks his ceiling is not where they expected it to be is in the constant trade talks involving Porcello. They want to get a healthy return for Procello before other organizations realize his regression, which sadly for the Tigers, might already be the case.

Prediction: Indians win series.

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Series Preview: A's at Indians 5/6-9

Written by Mike Melaragno on 06 May 2013.

Oakland A's (18-14) Chance of Postseason Play (48.9%) at Cleveland Indians (14-14) Chance of Postseason Play (31.6%)
Series 11, Games 29, 30, 31and 32
Progressive Field, Cleveland: 1.086, Extreme hitters park.

Monday , May 6 7:05 EDT (STO)

Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2, 7.13) vs. Jarrod Parker (1-4, 7.36)

A battle of the disappointments. Both pitchers were counted on to be contributors on contending teams this season and, so far, both have not lived up to the bill. Parker gathered his first win of the season Tuesday, yielding four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks, while recording four strikeouts over six innings, as the A's beat the hapless Angels. Parker was solid through six innings, but an offensive outburst by the A's in the bottom of the inning forced him to take warmup pitches in the pen just to stay sharp. After a leadoff walk, he was removed from the mound with his second quality start of the season in hand following 96 pitches (59 strikes). If the A's cannot rely on Parker this season, they probably will not win the division.

Tuesday, May 7 7:05 EDT (STO)
Zack McAllister (2-3 3.30) vs. Tommy Milone (L) (3-3, 3.69)

Milone gave up four runs on seven hits, including three homers, over seven innings in a lose against the Angels on Wednesday. On a positive note, Milone fanned 10 and did not walk a batter in the outing, improving his K:BB to 36:6 over his first six starts (39 innings), according to ESPN Stats and Info. The good command Milone is what has allowed him to be successful thus far in his career. He works with a high 80s fastball which on occasion can reach 90-91. He is able to place the ball inside and outside and uses the corners well. Despite his elite level command he doesn’t get a lot of ground balls and sees even his offering lower in the zone, when hit, able to be lifted. Milone has some deception working for him with his delivery. He hides the ball well and is able to easily repeat his simple albeit mechanical delivery. His deception allows his fastball to play up because it’s not seen until the very point of release and his ability to repeat allows him to hit his spots.

This will be a fantastic pitching match up.

Wednesday, May 8 7:05 EDT (STO)

Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.64) vs. A.J. Griffin (3-2, 3.79)

Griffin struggled a bit at the end of April, but got his May off on the right foot with a very good start against the Yankees on Friday. He threw seven innings of shutout baseball in a 2-0 win. He allowed six hits, walked one, and struck out four. Griffin is a big kid, but his fastball sits in the low 90s at its best. He matches it with a solid curveball and changeup and solid approach to his game. He has back of the rotation upside but does not a high ceiling.

Thursday May 9, 12:05 EDT (STO)

Scott Kazmir (1-1, 6.28) vs. Bartolo Colon (3-1, 3.62)

Colon gave up three runs over 5.1 innings and picked up his first loss of the season against the Yankees on Saturday. Colon still owns a respectable 3.62 ERA and has only walked one batter in 37.1 innings, but his last two starts have been really rocky. The former Indians ace is older but still somewhat effective.

Kazmir struck out seven batters over six innings to earn the victory in the 7-3 win over the Twins.

Prediction: A's win series 3-1.

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Series Preview: Twins at Indians 5/3-5/5

Written by Mike Melaragno on 02 May 2013.

Minnesota Twins (12-12) at Cleveland Indians (12-13)
Series 10, Games 26, 27 and 28
Progressive Field, Cleveland: 1.140, Extreme hitters park.

Series Overview

The Twins visit the Indians for the first time this season and both teams have close to identical records at this point. However, most experts are projecting the Indians to win 84 games while having the Twins winning 74. This is no surprise when you look at the make-up of both rosters. Over the entire 2012 offseason, it was the feeling around Minnesota that the Twins were willing to concede the 2013 season in order to build a competitive team in 2014.Those were confirmed with the Denard Span and Ben Revere trades this past offseason, and now it's time for the organization to take a look at the young players, which they have done so far this season.The Twins teams that dominated the American League Central during the 2000's began with a 69-93 season in 2000 that saw several young players get an opportunity to play in the major leagues. 2013 is a time to find out who is a part of the long-term solution for the Twins. If those players can't seize the opportunity, a loaded farm system will have some prospects get their chance. We'll see several in this series.

Friday , May 3 7:05 EDT (STO)

Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.12 ERA) vs. Pedro Hernandez (L) (1-0, 2.35 ERA)

When the Twins sent oft-injured Francisco Liriano to the Chicago White Sox last season at the trade deadline, they recieved a pair of prospects in return, infielder Eduardo Escobar and left-hander Pedro Hernandez. That marks the second time in the last year that Hernandez had been dealt, arriving in Chicago when Carlos Quentin went to the Padres during that off-season. Hernandez lacks a standout pitch but he will show average velocity from the left side, topping out at 92 mph when he reaches back for more. He pounds the strike zone but has yet to consistently keep the ball down, leaving him prone to home runs. Although this season, his HR/FB rate is 10.5% which is significantly better than his career total (including the minors) of 17.2%. Most scouts like his change-up as an average pitch while his slider is below-average and lacks the break to miss bats at the upper levels. At best, Hernandez profiles as a back of the rotation piece and more likely as a long reliever. This will only be his fourth Major League start.

As for Masterson, the current Twins roster has looked clueless against him in the past. The entire team is only hitting .236/.326/.382 against him.

Saturday, May 4 1:05 EDT (STO)
Ubaldo Jimenez (1-2 7.13 ERA) vs. Kevin Correia (3-1, 2.23 ERA)

Correia has given the Twins exactly what they expected from him at the beginning of the season thus far in the 2013 campaign: quality starts. He has completed seven innings in each of his five starts, all of them quality starts. Even though Correia will supply very few strikeouts, considering his below league average 3.72 K/9IP this season, he seems ready to induce numerous groundballs, 13 of which resulted in Ranger outs Sunday, in his last outing. This should be an interesting start for Correia as he went 5.2 innings in his sole career appearance against the Indians.

Other than a double by Mike Moustakas, Jimenez was not challenged by the Royals at all. Jimenez has been tough to read this year with three awful starts and a pair of dominant ones. Let's hope this start is a dominate one.

Sunday, May 5 1:05 EDT (STO)

Zach McAllister (2-3, 3.30 ERA) vs. Mike Pelfrey (2-3, 7.66 ERA)

Pelfrey suffered another loss Monday against the Tigers as he pitched 5.1 innings and allowed four runs, seven hits and two walks to go along with one strikeout. Pelfrey has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts and has a 7.66 ERA and 1.93 WHIP for the season as a result. He'll need to show a lot of improvement if he's going to be counted on as a reliable starter in Major League Baseball. We are only about a year removed from Pelfrey's Tommy John surgery he underwent on May 1 of last year. Pelfrey was 1-4 in his final 12 games (11 starts) with the Mets in 2011 and pitched to no decision in three April starts for the Mets in 2012 before he was diagnosed with torn ligaments in his right elbow. He throws a sinking 91-93 MPH fastball, which he can dial it up to 93 MPH even after the surgery (averaged 90 mph last year, lowest of his career partly because of the injuries). He lead the Mets in starts and innings in 2009 and 2010, pitching over 200 innings for the 2nd time in his career in 2010. A lot of scouts point to the increased work load as a probable cause for his injury. He added a split-finger to act as a change-up in 2010, which he has almost completely gotten rid of since the surgery. He is known as a ground-ball pitcher, but only slightly. He's had less BB/9 than league average the past 4 years (3.02BB/9 in 2011). The Twins took a low risk approach to building their rotation this season, and Pelfrey is a good example.

Prediction: Indians win series.

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Series Preview: Phillies at Indians 4/30-5/1

Written by Mike Melaragno on 30 April 2013.

Philadelphia Phillies (12-14) at Cleveland Indians (10-13)
Series 9, Games 24 and 25
Progressive Field, Cleveland: 1.061, Hitters park

Series Overview
Heading into this season, the Phillies are caught in an in-between state and like the Indians, should rebuild in my opinion. No matter what happened last year, the presence of Hamels, Halladay and Lee makes them a dangerous team. After all, we all know that pitching wins. Much like the Yankees, these are not the typical Phillies that we grew up with. Although most of their star players are still on the 25 man roster, they are older and more prone to injury. Halladay is 35. Lee is 34. Ryan Howard is 33 and had a terrible 2012 season. Jimmy Rollins is 34. Chase Utley is 34, and hasn't played more than 115 games in the last three seasons. Carlos Ruiz is 34. Even new third baseman Michael Young is anything but for a professional athlete, at 36. None of their offensive players are elite at his position anymore, but the trio of aces should keep them in the race this season.

Tuesday, April 30, 7:05 EDT (STO)
Zach McAllister (1-3, 3.52 ERA) vs. Roy Halladay (2-2, 5.08 ERA)

Halladay, in his last outing, held the Pirates to just one run on one hit while striking out eight over six innings. According to ESPN Stats and Info, Halladay fell behind most of the batters he faced (only 57 of 95 pitches for strikes), but battled to force the Bucs to either strike out or make bad contact. Despite the strong outing, he did not get the win because the Phillies bullpen and defense blew the lead. After a rough start to the season, Halladay has started to pitch like his normal self. He has put up a 1.71 ERA with a 16:5 K:BB ration over his last three starts. Jason Giambi should DH in this game, as he has enjoyed wonderful success against Halladay; he is hitting .306/.375/.486 with four homeruns in 72 at-bats against the former CY Young award winner.

Wednesday, May 1, 7:05 EDT (STO)
Trevor Bauer vs. Cliff Lee (L) (2-1, 3.03 ERA)

Since the start of the 2009 season, Lee has walked 3.6 percent of the batters he has faced, the lowest percentage in the league. He has a 1.09 WHIP over that span, tied for fourth lowest among starting pitchers, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. In his last start, Lee allowed three runs on 10 hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the Pirates. He struck out seven and walked one. Lee threw 122 pitches in that game, which is four shy of his career high. He has never felt any quantifiable effect from high pitch count games and I wouldn't expect one for this game. These type of crafty southpaws have given the Indians troubles this season. This, coupled with Lee's desire to beat the Indians for how the organization handled his 2007 season, gives all the indicators that the Indians will not beat Lee.

Prediction: Phillies sweep Indians.

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Series Preview: Indians at Royals 4/26-29

Written by Mike Melaragno on 25 April 2013.

Cleveland Indians (8-11) at Kansas City Royals (10-8)
Series 8, Games 20, 21, 22 and 23
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City: 0.863, Extreme pitchers park.

Friday, April 26 8:10 EDT (STO)
Scott Kazmir (0-0, 16.20 ERA) vs. Ervin Santana (2-1, 2.48 ERA)

Santana now has quality starts in each of his past three appearances, a 2-1 record, 2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 26:5 K:BB ratio in 29 innings over four outings. Considering his previous career best in ERA (3.38 in 2011), it remains to be seen if he can sustain his peripheral numbers, namely a 1.55 BB/9IP, according to ESPN Stats and Info. He'll attempt to do so in this game vs. the Indians, against whom he's racked up a 3.72 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts in 46 frames in seven starts over the last three seasons. However, this is an entirely new lineup he faces. As a four-seam fastball pitcher, Santana is naturally more of a flyball pitcher. Although it worked for him in Angel’s Stadium, it will be interesting to see what heppens once the midwestern heat and humidity reaches Kansas City this summer as he never had success away from his home ballpark in Los Angeles. Santana does tend to put unpredictable spin on the fastball though, which I’ll assume helps him sit around a 38.3% groundball rate for his career. He also does fairly well with strikeouts. His slider is the main culprit for swings and misses, and at a 17.6% whiff rate, it’s something to watch out for in the batter’s box, especially with 2 strikes. Look for the Indians left-handed hitters to have good success against Santana, as the pitch f/x data indicates that his stuff certainly does not favor them. The first thing I noticed when analysing the data is the most of his pitches are down and away. This is typical of any pitcher facing opposite side hitters. The fastball and changeup match up most with each other, but while you can see that the fastball includes pitches up and in, if he missed with his changeup, it was almost always down or away. A changeup in from a right handed pitcher to a left handed batter is not a good combination. Then there is the slider, and it’s pretty evident that if he’s throwing a slider, it’s probably going to be a strike or lower. In fact he had the greatest success in 2011 throwing the slider for strikes at a 65.7% clip, compared to a fastball at 63.1% and the changeup at 57.4%. Of how often each pitch was thrown, it was 62.3% fastballs, 32.4% sliders, and 5.4% changeups. Michael Brantley, who I think will have a big night in Kansas City, in 17 AB's against Santana is hitting a mild .294/.333/.529.

Saturday, April 27, 7:10 EDT (STO)
Ubaldo Jimenez (0-2, 10.06 ERA) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (2-0, 3.86 ERA)

The 34-year old right-handed Guthrie was drafted in the 1st round of the 2002 draft out of Stanford University by the Indians and made his major league debut in 2004. He had several lackluster years with in the Tribe farm system, before he was released in 2007. Guthrie has a compact delivery, throwing from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 2 and 4-seam fastballs in the 89-94 mph range (average of 92 mph, down from 94 in 2008) and gets good downward movement with the 2-seam, but his 4-seam is straight as an arrow. He also throws a sharp, late-breaking slider (84 mph), a tight curve (will only throw it once or twice a game) and a decent change (85 mph). He falls behind in the count often. His fastball and slider are his two best pitches, and he throws them a combined 86% of the time. This year he's increased the use of his slider to 26%. He has had a very good season so far for the Royals. His last start was another strong start for Guthrie, who was able to maintain his current 15-game streak without a loss, dating back to August of last season. This will be a tough game for the the Indians to win, as they have exhibited a tendency to struggle against pitchers who have sharp sliders, as Guthrie has.

Sunday, April 28, 2:10 EDT (STO)
Justin Masterson (4-1, 1.85 ERA) vs. Luis Mendoza (0-1, 6.17 ERA)

Mendoza was skipped over in his last scheduled start since he last started on April 12 against Toronto. He pitched out of the bullpen on Wednesday against Detroit and threw 2 1/3 and did not give up a run but walked three. He will make his next start against the Indians and it should be interesting to watch him pitch. Mendoza is a big guy (6-foot-3 235 pounds) so one would think Mendoza would be a bit of a power pitcher. But in reality, he is not anything close. He comes from a high 3/4rds arm slot, could almost be considered overhand. According to most scouts, out of the stretch he is slow to the plate. This is mainly caused by his long arm action. He hides the ball from righties fairy well, will show the ball to lefties. Mendoza has bounced around the majors. Signed in 2006 by the Red Sox, he was part of trade that sent him to Texas that same year. In 2007 he made the jump from AA to the majors and saw most of his time from the bullpen while collecting one start. He did get 11 starts in 2008, but went 3-8 with at K/9 of nearly 5 and a BB/9 of nearly 4. While at AAA he was used as a starter, but in the majors he is a bullpen/six starter/long relief arm. His career BB:K is as close as 1:1 as your can get. He certainly does not have amazing stuff, but he wants you to hit his pitch. He favors his sinker which averages 92 MPH. In an odd way, this pitch reminds one of former Indians pitcher Roberto Hernandez as he uses it to keep the ball off the fat part of the bat and induce weak contact. When you see it, it looks more like a 92 MPH changeup. His fastball is his go to pitch when he is in negative counts and needs a strike. It averages 93 MPH, which favors the batter. It should be easy to sit on the sinker and react to the fastball. His curveball is big and loopy, tops out at 81, and loves to throw it to righties when he is ahead in the count. In fact, when he gets to 0-2 on RHH, that is what he will throw 95% of the time. With the free swinging Indians, he could cause some headaches.

Monday, April 29, 8:10 EDT (STO)

*Corey Kluber (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Wade Davis (2-0, 2.25)

Davis is coming off an absolutely terrible outing against the Tigers after looking steller against the Braves on April 17th. In his fantastic outing against the Braves, Davis didn't allow a base runner past first until Jason Heyward hit a two-out double off him in the sixth. According to ESPN Stats and Info, he threw 92 pitches (62 for strikes) and induced seven ground ball outs. While the Tigers fair much better against righties, (.326 as a team), there was no excuse for how badly Davis threw. He only lasted 3 2/3 innings while giving up three earned runs while walking four. To his credit, the game temperatue was listed at 41 degrees (so he probably couldnt feel his fingertips as Royals manager Ned Yost alluded to.)

(*As of this publishing, this is Corey Kluber's scheduled start in the rotation as he is filling in for the injured Brett Myers. However, right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka could very well be given the nod for this one as his outing Tuesday for Columbus was his best of the year thus far going 6 1/3 and striking out eight while only allowing two earned runs, suggesting Trevor Bauer may not be at the top of the list should the club make a change between now and when Myers returns from the disabled list. Stay tuned.)

Prediction: Royals win three out of four.

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Series Preview: Indians at White Sox 4/22-24

Written by Mike Melaragno on 22 April 2013.

Cleveland Indians (7-10) at Chicago White Sox (7-11)
Series 7, Games 18, 19 and 20
U.S. Cellular Field, Chicago: 0.827*, Extreme pitchers park.

Series Overview

The Indians will play the White Sox for the second series this season. The first series was very entertaining and I expect this one to be the same.
Slugger Adam Dunn has certainly struggled this season so far. He is batting just .098 this season and has played in all but one game, when he was held out during an inter league game at Washington with the DH spot unavailable. He has two home runs and five RBIs with a .213 slugging percentage and a .154 on-base percentage over his first 16 games.
Dayan Viciedo was diagnosed with a left oblique strain was put on the disabled-list on April 20th. He injured himself on a swing Thursday night at Toronto and was immediately removed from the game. It didn't look serious, although he was wincing in pain immediately after he was removed from the game. The left fielder was batting .229 with a .417 slugging percentage over his first 14 games, hitting two home runs with five RBIs.

Despite a 7-11 record to start the season, I believe the White Sox will eventually win the division. This is another chance for the Indians to prove they belong in the race.

Prediction: Indians lose series 2-1. Justin Masterson pitches a masterpiece and out duals Dylan Axelrod for the only series victory.

Monday, April 22 8:10 EDT (STO)
Justin Masterson (3-1, 1.67 ERA) vs. Dylan Axelrod (0-1, 4.70 ERA)

In what would be considered a disappointing start this season, Masterson allowed four runs over five innings and was the losing pitcher Wednesday against the Red Sox. He gave up 11 hits while walking one and striking out five. After allowing just one run over his first 22 innings of work this season Masterson was "hit around" as the Red Sox were able to put three runs on the board in the first inning. His ERA on the season now stands at 1.67 to go along with 25 strikeouts and nine walks.Axelrod, who is getting the start in place of the injured John Danks, will get his chance to finally prove that he belongs in the big leagues as a starting pitcher. San Diego drafted him in the 30th round in 2007 out of Cal Irvine, where he was a reliever. The Sox signed him out of the Frontier League and converted him into a starter and he has flourished. His stuff is average at best, but he has fantastic control and knows how to pitch. Axelrod posted a BB/9 of 1.1 in 2010 between high-A and AA and followed that up with a 2.1 BB/9 mark in 2011 between AA and AAA. Last season, he earned a 7.06 K/9 pitching both out of the bullpen and starting rotation for the Sox. Despite low walk numbers and low ERA's, Axelrod didn't get any attention until he had a strong September call-up with the Sox in 2011 (2.89 ERA, 19 K, 9 BB in 18.2 IP).

Tuesday, April 23, 8:10EDT (STO)
Zach McAllister (1-2, 3.12 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (L) (1-0, 2.55 ERA)

Quintana had a very good start against the Indians on April 12 which he lost because the Sox did not score any runs off Justin Masterson to support their starting pitcher. It took a ninth inning game winning single from Nick Swisher to break the 0-0 tie and win the game.
Throughout his career, Quintana has displayed a ground ball tendency and pretty strong control. His minor league history also showed solid strikeout rates. His fastball velocity isn’t great at 90.4 miles per hour, but acceptable for a lefty, and is likely a good reason why he only throws it a bit more than 50% of the time. In the start against the Indians and his subsequent start against Toronto, he started to mix in his curve-ball more. After throwing it an average of 15% of the time both in the minors and majors, he has thrown it an average of 22% in his last two starts. It's too early to tell if this is a new trend from him or not.

Wednesday, April 24, 2:10EDT (STO)
Corey Kluber (1-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (L) (1-2, 4.50 ERA)

A multitude of events are the reason why Corey Kluber will get his first start of the year on Wednesday. Personally, I favored Kluber from spring training to win a spot in the rotation. He has fantastic stuff with very good movement on his breaking balls. Because he has deep pitching selection, he is best suited for the starting rotation as opposed to the bullpen.

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