Player of the Game

Corey Kluber won his first game of the year and his first Player of the Game as well. Kluber threw 6 innings, allowing just 2 runs while striking out four and inducing two double plays. His final score was 4.16.

Feathers Up

While the Indians were kept from getting extra base hits, they were able to turn a few singles into something more. Jason Kipnis took two extra bases early, scoring on a passed ball, while Shin-Soo Choo, Ezequiel Carerra and Lou Marson all stole second after hitting singles. Choo was even able to take third after the ball flew into centerfield when he stole second. This is the result of a good strategy, coming into the game knowing that Anibal Sanchez does a poor job controlling runners and that Alex Avila is vastly over rated as a defensive catcher. It also shows some agressiveness from the Tribe that has been absent of late.

Brent Lillibridge even got an accidental steal in the top of the 9th on a botched hit and run, showing that maybe more of the blame for the easy running falls on Avila than Sanchez. He continued that agressive play by taking third on a short fly to center right after.

Corey Kluber has been waiting more than a month to get his first win as a starter and the Indians were finally able to stand up for the young pitcher and deliver him one.

One day after complaining that expanded rosters allow teams to use to many pitchers out of the bullpen, Jim Leyland used four pitchers to throw the last two innings. This is a positive because it makes Leyland look like a hypocrite who will do and say anything to win even if he is doing and saying opposite things.

Feathers Down

With Chris Perez gone for the birth of his daughter, the Indians have been forced to use some pitchers in situations they would prefer not to. Esmil Rogers and Cody Allen each pitched in a one run situation even though they are usually saved for losing situations with Perez, Vinnie Pestano, Joe Smith and Tony Sipp being used in clutch situations.

Play of the Game

Asdrubal Cabrera hit a sacrifice fly with one out in the 7th inning to score Lou Marson from third. This ended up being the game winning run.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 3 - Detroit Tigers 2

For the first half of the season the Indians went back and forth with the White Sox for first place while the Tigers sat in third. The roles have been reversed now as the Tigers are within a game of a first place tie with Chicago while the Indians are within a single game of being tied for last in the Central with the Twins. With the first overall draft pick the only thing left to play for in 2012, it may be hard for the Indians to find motivation in this last month of the season. A couple players who won't need motivating are those already called up with the recent roster expansion. Thomas Neal and Russ Canzler have each been thrust into games, batting in the top part of the lineup and have already had some success in limited action. 

September 3rd, 1:05 PM EDT: Corey Kluber, RHP, 0-3, 5.16 ERA vs Anibal Sanchez, RHP, 2-4, 5.29 ERA

Corey Kluber will be making his seventh start of the season and the first not in the horrible month of August (so, it was all his fault the Indians lost 24 games). Even though he has allowed 3 or fewer runs in four of his six starts, the Indians have lost every single one. His luck is unlikely to change against the Tigers, who are on a mission to pass the White Sox and have beaten the Indians in their last three matchups.

September 4th, 7:05 PM EDT: Justin Masterson, RHP, 10-12, 4.91 ERA vs Rick Porcello, RHP, 9-10, 4.57 ERA

I could tell you that Porcello has struggled against the Tribe, allowing an ERA of 4.06 and a WHIP of 1.27, but none of that matters because this Indians team is all about being different. Situations that used to be strengths are now glaring weaknesses. While earlier in the season a series against three right handed pitchers seemed like an automatic series win, but it certainly doesn't any more. 

September 5th, 7:05 PM EDT: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, 9-14, 5.61 ERA vs Doug Fister, 7-8, 3.61 ERA

Playing for a contract has apparently not provided the motivation needed for Jimenez to perform. Last month Ubaldo was only able to pitch through the sixth inning a single time and increased his ERA to one of it's highest points of the season. While he has kept opposing teams to just three runs in his last four starts, his lack of stamina (or his tendency to throw a lot of pitches) has made this less than impressive. Even though he threw an average of about 100 pitches per game during the last month he did it in just an average of 5.2 innings per game.

Roster Update: In addition to the three minor leaguers brought up yesterday, the Indians have now added Frank Herrmann back to the roster. Already these September Call-ups are being thrown into action with Russ Canzler starting yesterday and producing and both him and Thomas Neal starting today.

Injury Update: Asdrubal Cabrera is sitting out today for the second game in a row nursing his sore wrist. He has been slumping of late, but even when playing poorly is still a huge part of the Indians offense, so they can't afford to have him out for long.

Lonnie Chisenhall will begin his rehab assignment today and hopefully will be back with the team within the next week. When he was first hit by the pitch that broke his arm it looked like he could be out for the entire season, but Chisenhall has worked hard to get back in time to play a few more games this year with the Tribe. This is huge since Jack Hannahan has been absolutely horrendous offensively and the Indians have no other true options at third at this point. Going along with their looking on to 2013 view, having next year's starting third baseman on the team will be a tremendous asset. 

Player of the Game

Carlos Santana contributed to each of the Indians 3 runs when he hot a home run in the 3rd inning and scored on a double in the 8th. Santana has been hot of late, recording positive Player of the Game scores in the last 8 games. His score of 5.56 now gives Santana a team leading 13 PoG awards this year.

Feathers Up

The hustle of Jason Kipnis granted him 2 hits infield hits today.

Minor league talent has joined the team in the past few days and they are getting an opportunity to prove themselves. Russ Canzler has played in the last 2 games and has combined for 3 hits. Thomas Neal got his first hit today, an RBI double in the 8th inning. 

Feathers Down

The home run ball killed Zach McAllister today. He gave up a solo home run to Jurickson Profar in the 3rd inning in Profar's first Major League at bat. In the 5th inning, McAllister allowed 3 more solo home runs. McAllister pitched just 5 innings today and gave up 7 runs on 11 hits, not exactly a good outing for the young pitcher.

Play of the Game

Center Fielder, Ezequiel Carrera, made a nice catch as he slammed into the wall. 

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 3 - Texas Rangers 8

Roster Update: Three minor league players were called up to start up the roster expansion in September. The Indians brought up Scott Barnes (who has already thrown in the Indians bullpen), Thomas Neal (acquired last season from the Giants in the Orlando Cabrera trade) and Russ Canzler, who started tonight. Barnes and Canzler were playing in Columbus while Neal was a member of the AA Eastern League Western Champion Akron Aeros. There is a good chance that the Indians will bring up more players over the course of the month, especially after the MiLB playoffs are over.

Player of the Game

Carlos Santana takes tonight's Player of the Game as he was right in the middle of the Indians rally in the first. Santana knocked in the first two runs of the game with a single and later scored. His final score was 3.23.

Feathers Up

It's almost like the Indians set a goal to have the worst month in the history of the franchise and are right back to where they were before August. Starting in the first inning, the Indians were hitting, pitching and playing good defense against the Western Division leading Texas. Looks like we can just forget about that whole last month as the Indians are right back in the running for the Central Division title.

Russ Canzler batted fifth tonight (showing the weakness of the Indians lineup) and was pretty successful in his Indians debut. Canzler was a part of the big first inning for the Tribe, moving the runners along with the Indians 4th consecutive hit.

Feathers Down

The scouting report on Scott Feldman had said he was a very streaky pitcher, but who knew this meant within a single game. Tonight, he allowed five consecutive base runners to reach and four runs in the first inning, then only allowed two more base runners all game and no more runs.

For some reason, Chris Perez was absent from the bullpen tonight so the Indians did some shuffling to cover his spot. Esmil Rogers threw the first part of the 8th and Vinnie Pestano came in to get the last out of that inning. Pestano stayed on for the 9th to record his 4th career save, his first of the season.

Play of the Game

Vinnie Pestano struck out Geovany Soto looking for the second out in the 9th after being down in the count 3-0.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 4 - Texas Rangers 3

With the worst months in Indians history over there wasn't much movement up or down the power rankings. Most of the movement that did occur happened because seven new players were added to the 25 man roster. 

1. Shin-Soo Choo Even (+1)

30 SO: This is the first time for Choo in the number one spot after being held by Hafner for a month, then Kipnis for the rest of the year. The move was mostly made due to Kipnis' slump, as Choo has been very consistant all season. If he had one problem, it's that he lead the team in strike outs, six more than the next worse batter. Chances are he has been pressing with the rest of the team struggling and swinging at more bad pitches than normal as of late, leading to the increased strike out count.

2. Asdrubal Cabrera Even (+2)

7 2B: Cabrera lead the team in doubles in August and has 30 on the season as well. While the Indians don't have a true power hitter, having three players with 30 or more doubles can make up for a lot of that. Even in a month as poorly played as this one, 7 Indians had at least four doubles, which would project out to 25 or so on the year. 

3. Jason Kipnis Below (-2)

.180 AVG: If Choo is pressing, Kipnis is already flat. He basically went from being the Indians best hitter, to their worse over the course of two months. He still hit two home runs and stole five bases, enough to keep him in third place along with his prior achievements, but things did not look good for Kipnis last month.

4. Michael Brantley Even (-1)

3 CS: For a speed outfielder, you never want to see a caught stealing ratio of 3 caught to every one good steal, but that is what Brantley put out last month. Ideally a manager is looking for a stolen base percentage of above 75% to have it actually help the team. Brantley obviously has the speed, but needs to work on finding the best situations to steal and improving his timing.

5. Carlos Santana Above (0)

16 RBI: While his batting average remains low, Santana's production numbers really jumped in the last month, hitting four home runs and knocking in a team high 16. While on a normal team this wouldn't be anything to get excited about, on the Indians it's off the charts fantastic.

6. Vinnie Pestano Below (0)

3 IR Scored: This month, Pestano has been a little worse than his stats will show. Prior to this month, Pestano had been almost perfect, stranding every single inherited runner on base except for one.  This month, he allowed 3 to score. He certainly has not been his usual perfect self, but he is still the best reliever and possibly the best overall pitcher on the team.

7. Zach McAllister Even (+1)

8 Unearned Runs: The Indians defense failed one of their best pitchers this month allowing 7 unearned runs in a single game and 8 overall. On the season he has allowed 18 unearned runs, almost a third of his total runs allowed. This disproportionate number is not all to blame on the Indians defense as he tended to give up a lot everytime the team made an error behind him that extended an inning. This could possibly be a mental block when thinks an inning should be over, but it isn't and he kind of gives up.

8. Casey Kotchman Below (-1)

4 Walks: There is a huge split in talent level that occurs between the first five position players and the sixth, Kotchman. While he is still a starter and has played as many games as anyone else, he comes in last for the month among starters in runs, doubles, triples, RBI and walks. A positive note for him is that he is also last in strike outs. Kotchman is here as a defensive firstbaseman, but with an offense this bad, the Indians can't afford the luxery of a player at a power position who can't hit.

9. Chris Perez Below (+1)

2 Losses: Every single starting pitcher lost three games this month, but Perez lead all relievers with two losses. This has to be one of Pure Rage's worst months ever as he blew two saves and held an ERA of 6.75 as well.

10. Joe Smith Below (+1)

1.61 WHIP: What happened to Joe Smith? Although he only gave up four runs this month, he walked seven and allowed eight hits in just 9.1 innings. This is nothing like the Smith we are used to who garners his success by keeping runners off base.

11. Justin Masterson Below (+2)

16 Walks: Masterson lead the team in walks during August, leading to a team high 1.77 WHIP. When he was good, he was the best pitcher of the month, winning three of the Indians five games won, but when he was terrible, he was bad enough to net an ERA of 6.75 for the month and record three losses.

12. Esmil Rogers Above (+9)

2.04 ERA: Rogers continues to impress as he again lead all relievers in appearances and this time strike outs as well. He also walked just two batters, best on the team by any pitcher with more than 2 innings pitched. If Rogers can keep his command, he could be a big part of the Bullpen Mafia for the next few seasons.

13. Jeanmar Gomez Even (New)

1 IP: Gomez threw just one inning in relief this month, but it was a perfect inning with a strike out. He will get another chance in the starting rotation in September as he is scheduled to start on the first.

14. Jack Hannahan Below (+2)

1 RBI: Jack must have been really excited when he knocked in that run this month. I know it looks like he has moved up the rankings because he is two places higher than last month, but he has actually moved down. Three players ranked above him last month are no longer on the list and the one directly below has been removed as well. This means he actually fell one place.

15. Ezequiel Carrera Above (New)

11 Runs: Even though he didn't start every game, and was in fact used as a late inning defensive replacement when first called up, Carrera has still managed to score the second most runs on the team in August. If there was a Indians Heart and Hustle award for each half of the season (and I believe there is), Kipnis deserved it in the first half and Carrera deserves it for the second.

16. Tony Sipp Above (+7)

11 Base Runners Allowed: Sipp pitched just 11.1 innings this month, meaning he allowed less than a single base runner an inning. This is superb and is an outstanding effort for any pitcher not named Addie Joss.

17. Cody Allen Above (+7)

12 Games: While Allen did give up his first runs of his career (it was bound to happen at some point), he proved that he is not a fluke by throwing in 12 games this month and maintaining an ERA at 2.51. The 2011 draft pick has truly been a surprise and one of the few good ones the Indians have had this year.

18. Ubaldo Jimenez Below (-3)

37 K's: Ubaldo certainly has found his curveball, using it and his other breaking pitches to lead the team in strike outs. All he has to do now is allow less than 27 runs in about 30 innings and he could be a superstar again. The "stuff" is definitely there, he just needs to work on his command and his knowledge of American League hitters and he really could be something special.

19. Brent Lillibridge Even (+6)

3 Home runs: After not hitting a single home run for either of his two previous teams, Lillbridge has come to Cleveland and pounded out three in a month. Of course he batting .200 and only knocked in 6, so let's not get too excited.

20. Lou Marson Below (0)

15 Games Played: Why did Lou Marson play 15 games this month? That's more than half the total games played by the Tribe. He could very literally be the worst offensive (and possibly defensive) player on the team. Keep him on the bench unless Carlos gets his knee taken out again.

21. Corey Kluber Below (New)

2.89 K/BB Ratio: Although Kluber has not been quite as good as the Indians would have liked, but one aspect he has impressed in is striking batters out. This month he has the best K/9 ratio outside of Jimenez on the strength of 26 total strike outs. As soon as he can put those strike outs closer together with less hits in between he will be all set.

22. Jason Donald Below (New)

2 Extra Base Hits: Surprisingly, both of Donald's extra base hits this month were home runs. Not surprisingly, he has had an OBP of .255 for the month. If the Indians were going to improve their offense by adding another bat, a way to make it even better would be to keep the player that the new hitter would replace and use him in the utility role while releasing Donald.

23. Chris Seddon Even (New)

6 Relief Appearances: Seddon is hard to judge this month as he pitched mostly in long relief, instead of starting as he had all year for Columbus. Even when he had a chance to join the starting rotation again with Hernandez's injury, Manny Acta has decided to go with Gomez, who struggled during his recent stint in AAA.

24. Roberto Hernandez Below (New)

4 Home Runs Allowed: Sadly, neither Hernandez's 7.53 ERA nor his .304 BAA are the worst on the team for the month, but his four home runs in 14.1 innings pitched is by far the worst. In his last start Roberto was removed due to a sprained ankle early in the game, yet he still managed to allow a homer in that start as well. 

25. Matt LaPorta Below (New)

1 Hit: LaPorta is not doing a very good job of taking advantage of what should be his final Indians try out. So far he has had 12 at bats and he has a single hit along with five strike outs. If he keeps this up for about another week, the Indians can end this experiment before the year is out and give his playing time to Russ Canzler.

No longer with us (July ranking in parenthesis):

Johnny Damon Below (17)

Jeremy Accardo Below (22)

Vinny Rottino Below (DNP)

Jose Lopez Even (12)

Travis Hafner Above (9)

Josh Tomlin Below (19)

Frank Herrmann Even (DNP)

Shelley Duncan Below (14)

Player of the Game

Casey Kotchman hit a 9th inning home run, giving him tonight's Player of the Game with a score of 4.48.

Feathers Up

August is officially over. Maybe it was just an August curse and the Indians will go back to playing winning baseball and finish strong in September. The Indians have the opportunity to expand their rosters soon, so maybe some young blood can get this team going.

Manny Acta is getting desperate in attempts to record a win. He changed his line up once again, as he put Shin-Soo Choo back in the lead off spot and moved Michael Brantley to the clean up position. Did it work? Not today.

The Indians attempted a late-inning come back as they forced the Rangers to bring their closer, Joe Nathan, into the game. Unfortunately, they came up short.

Feathers Down

August Misfortunes: The Indians won just 5 games in the month of August. The Indians lost 24 games in August, the first time that has happened iin 98 years.

Play of the Game

Casey Kotchman's 9th inning home run.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 3 - Texas Rangers 5

The Indians gave no signs during their recent series against Oakland that they are improving at all. After being swept by the second place Athletics, it's hard to believe that the Tribe will do any better against the first place Rangers. In fact, the Indians have struggled mightily with Texas for the last few years without dealing with their current problems.

August 31st, 7:05 PM EDT: Ryan Dempster, RHP, 3-1, 5.46 ERA vs Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, 9-13, 5.58 ERA

This is the last game of the month and due to three lengthy losing streaks, the Indians have won a total of five games going into this. They won four of the five over a span of six games against the Minnesota, Boston and Los Angeles. The other win came against the Yankees with Justin Masterson on the mound. A loss to the Rangers in this game would put an exclamation point on an already terrible month which must stand as one of the worst in Indians history. The good news is that the Rangers have a right hander on the mound (not that it really matters anymore) and that Jimenez has had some good starts this year. At least enough to think that he could possibly keep the Indians in the game this time. 

September 1st, 7:05 PM EDT: Scott Feldman, RHP, 6-10, 4.95 ERA vs Roberto Hernandez, RHP, 0-3, 7.53 ERA

Apparently Roberto Hernandez will be making this start after all after injuring his ankle and leaving his last start early. This should give the Indians a much better chance to win than they would have with either Jeanmar Gomez or Chris Seddon starting.

September 2nd, 1:05 PM EDT: Derek Holland, LHP, 9-6, 4.90 ERA vs Zach McAllister, RHP, 5-5, 3.82 ERA

This losing streak has even claimed McAllister as a victim, with his last start out being his worst all year. It was the first time he had been pulled from a game before the end of the fifth inning (excluding the one game that his defense gave up 7 unearned runs) and his five runs allowed were the most he has given up all year. Even given that, it was still the best start by an Indians pitcher in the series against Oakland. This team is in trouble, there is no hiding that. The only way to fix things is with money and a lot of it. One hitter is not enough to change this team. The Indians now need a minimum of three solid position players (first base, outfield and DH) for next season and at least one new starting pitcher. That might be enough to keep the Tribe out of last place.

Player of the Game

Jason Kipnis was an offensive force in a game where what he did was completely inconsequential. However, since he was the best player for the Indians in this game, he will be recognized here. Kipnis earned a Player of the Game score of 5.95 with a solo home run to lead off the game along with a double and a walk later on, scoring twice and knocking two in.

Justin Masterson hit a season low for himself by earning -11.28 points with an absolutely terrible outing. This cancels out about a third of Masterson's season total.

Feathers Up

Ezequiel Carrera tried as hard as he could to score a run on his own in the fourth when he hit a two out single, stole second and scored from there on a Jack Hannahan single. Whenever we talk about how Indians players have a tendency to quit or aren't trying their hardest, know that we are not talking about Carrera, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley or any member of the bullpen. These players are still out there every day giving it their all everyday and are almost certainly even more frustrated than the fans are with the rest of the team and the Indians losing ways.

Milestone Update: Manny Acta is 16 wins from being 15th all time as an Indians manager in wins. Earlier in the season it seemed obvious that he would hit this mark fairly quickly (when the Indians were 50-49), but after just five wins in the month of August it no longer looks guaranteed (now 55-76). The question now is, "can the Indians go .500 for the rest of the season to get Manny Acta his 220th career win?" The follow up question is that "if they don't, will Acta be able to keep his job long enough to continue on his trek in 2013?"

Feathers Down

It turns out that Carlos Santana was removed from the game last night because he did not hustle to first on a couple of obvious outs. Three guys I remember never hustling to first were Albert Belle, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. There is no question that even a Carlos Santana that doesn't hustle is still 100 times better than Lou Marson. Hustling on outs for a power hitter might look good to the fans, team and manager, but it has absolutely nothing to do with winning. Playing your starting players the entire game will go a long way to helping your team win. If Ezequiel Carrera or Jason Kipnis stop running out ground balls there is a problem, because they have a chance to force errors or beat close plays, but Santana is never going to get there anyway. Just let him play his game his way.

After having three good starts out of his last four, Justin Masterson managed to pull out his worst game of the season today. Just when you thought things couldn't get worse, they did. Masterson threw 4+ innings and allowed 8 earned runs (also known as an ERA of 18.00 for the game). Most of the damage came off a three run double subsequent home run that came with two outs in the fourth inning. Masterson was removed after allowing three straight hits in the 5th including his 3rd home run allowed in the game.

Play of the Game

George Kotteras hit a bases clearing double in the fourth with two outs. This came after Masterson had walked two batters and happened while the game was still tied at one. The previous batter, Josh Donaldson, was walked in favor of a better matchup against Kotteras.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 7 - Oakland Athletics 12

Roster Update: The Indians released/demoted/DFA'd outfielder Shelley Duncan and brought Jeanmar Gomez back just days before rosters expand and they could have brought him up without removing someone from the roster. This makes it look like the Indians are done with Duncan, rather than just the normal demotion, because they could have sent down any number of players that still have options if they absolutely needed another pitcher today.

In an unrelated roster move, the Indians claimed left handed relief pitcher Scott Maine from the Cubs off waivers. He will be playing for the Columbus Clippers for the time being.

Player of the Game

Ezequiel Carrera won his second Player of the Game tonight with a double, a triple and a run scored.

Feathers Up

One positive note that can be taken from a pitching staff that has been less than perfect of late is the increase in strikeouts. Tribe pitching struck out 11 yesterday and starter Corey Kluber continued that trend tonight, striking out seven in six innings. This is out of character for Indians starters who, outside of Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez, do not have a strong swing and miss ability. Hopefully it is a sign of things to come as the Indians have been drafting and signing power pitchers with high strike out ratios rather than the pitch to contact players like have been the status quo over the past decade.

Every single Indians position player got to play in today's game. If their going to play like little leaguers, then it's good that they are following their rules as well.

Feathers Down

Asdrubal Cabrera was ejected in the first inning after arguing a called third strike that should have been ball four. The call was absolutely terrible on a ball that was almost in the dirt and he was absolutely legitimate in his argument. How much can one team take? The Indians offense is bad enough, they don't need the umpires playing against them as well.

The Indians infield was atrocious tonight, especially in the 6th inning when two mistakes lead to an unearned run. Partially to blame was the fact that Jason Kipnis was the DH. The Cabrera ejection also hurt, leading to an infield made of Jack Hannahan, Brent Lillibridge, Jason Donald and Matt LaPorta.

Carlos Santana was pulled from the game for no reason in the 7th inning. The Indians are literally giving up as soon as they get behind. If there was not an extremely good reason for Santana to be pulled then it is obvious that Manny Acta is not even trying to win at this point and serious thoughts of replacement should be in order.

Play of the Game

Ezequiel Carrera hit a triple. It's a stretch, but at least that play wasn't terrible.

Final Score: Cleveland Indians 4 - Oakland Athletics 8

Pythagoras was a Greek mathematician who lived around 500 BC. He was also a huge baseball fan. He dedicated his entire life to devising a way to estimate how many games a team would win just by looking at their runs scored and runs allowed and his dream came to fruition with this equation:

Runs Scored²/(Runs Allowed²+Runs Scored²)

Some of that may not be true, but the Pythagorean winning percentage (named after the actual Pythagorean theory for finding the length of any side of a right triangle: A² + B² = C²) has turned out to be an extremely accurate indicator of how a team will perform. In the history of Cleveland baseball, only one season (1988) had a difference of more than .100 points (10%) between their actual winning percentage and their Pythagorean. On an average level it is usually much closer. In the 134 year history of Cleveland baseball (I include the Forest City's, Blues, Spiders and Infants as Cleveland baseball teams), 127 teams have had their Pythagorean winning percent within .050 (5%) of their actual winning percent. 45 seasons have been within .010 or a 1% margin of error. This is all just to show how accurate of a predictor it is.

Below this is a graph comparing the Indians actual winning percentage (in red) to their pythagorean winning percentage (in blue) for the 2012 season to this point.

The first thing you should notice is something surprising. The Indians have actually won more games than they should have given their run differential. There is a good reason for this that I will go over later. Now, look around game 49. This was a high point in the Indians season as far as record goes, but it was also the highest difference between the two percents. At this point the Indians were winning 9.5% more games than they deserved to according to our friend Pythagoras, a pace that has only been beaten once in Indians history (in 1988 when the Indians won 78 games, but should have won 53) for an entire season and has otherwise not even been approached in over 100 years of baseball. There will always be some random variation from the line (it would be more surprising if there wasn't any at all), but to have a difference of this magnitude is bordering on a miracle. It should have come as no surprise when the two percentages started creeping towards each other as baseball karma caught up with the Tribe. While two long losing streaks weren't necessarily expected, they also weren't unwarranted. 

You can see during the first losing streak (games 100-110) places where the winning percentage dropped (as it does after every loss), but the Pythagorean didn't. These were close games, the kind that the Pythagorean winning percent can't decipher. Since it is based completely off run differential, the smaller the differential the less effect it has on the projected winning percentage. This means unlike in actual winning percentage where each win counts the same as every other win, some games are worth more than others. The reason this works out is that over time the averages will always catch up to you. No team can score less runs than they allow and maintain a winning record long term. 

This Indians team does have a couple assets that make it likely to maintain at a level slightly above the projected one. The first is the extreme dichotomy of the starting pitching staff. Pythagoras acts like a pitching staff is one unit, going out night after night, but in reality, some pitchers are much better than others to a point that it really makes a difference. If Justin Masterson wins a close, low scoring game it counts as a win in actual winning percentage and a wash in Pythagorean, but if Ubaldo Jimenez loses a game by a margin of seven it counts as a giant loss for the Pythagorean record, but just a single loss in the real world. Because of this, teams with great offenses will often underperform compared to their Pythagorean (the last Indians championship season in 1948 ended the season 9 games under their projected win total) because they score a lot of runs that don't really matter. A team with a struggling offense should still win games when their star pitchers are performing, but will likely lose early if the other team scores much. This is exactly what has been happening with the Indians over the past month. In August the Indians have won five games, three of which were won by the staff ace Justin Masterson and a fourth by rookie phenom Zach McAllister, who has been the second best pitcher on the team all season. The Indians simply don't score enough runs to win when any other pitcher is throwing and both records reflect that.

The second part of staying ahead of Pythagorus is having a good bullpen. It is completely pointless to have great starting pitching (even two out of every five days) if your bullpen is just going to give it away. Again, the entire bullpen doesn't have to be great, just enough to get through the games the team is going to win anyway. Joe Smith, Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez offer enough punch to get through at least three innings every time the two above average pitchers throw, so every single one of those games is still winnable despite the poor offense.

Looking at a couple of recent seasons for comparison, 2005 was memorable as one of the worst years for the Indians bullpen in recent years. Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Kevin Millwood and Jake Westbrook made up a dominant pitching staff, but were hurt by 15 blown saves (not all of which were the fault of Bob Wickman) and won five games less than they were projected to, a big enough difference to mean missing the playoffs. In 2007 the bullpen gelled behind great seasons from Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez who were so good it didn't matter that Joe Borowski was closing. That bullpen still has to be considered one of the best in team history and that team outpaced it's Pythagorean win total by four games. Mostly the same bullpen, but with a better closer in 2011 finished 5 games ahead.

This year the bullpen is just as good and the offense is even worse, leading to an impressive seven games over where they should be as of now. The Indians do have the talent to keep the difference at where it is now and finish the season with about 70 wins, but they will need to win every time Masterson or McAllister takes the mound. The only other thing they could do at this point to save the season from total embarrassment is to start scoring some runs. It would hurt their differential between Pythagorean and real life, but that is actually a good thing, because it would mean they would be earning their wins, rather than just sneaking a couple a week past the other teams. Management has to see this and understand that if the Indians don't score more runs, it doesn't matter how well they pitch. The number one priority in the offseason has to be picking up someone who already knows how to slug, not just another retreaded outfielder who can't find a home.

Pythagorean winning percentage is a good predictor of success, but a team shouldn't be trying to beat it, but instead should work with it. Just like in a single game, it really is as simple as the team that scores the most runs wins.